common sense

"there is no arguing with one who denies first principles"

Monday, October 23, 2017

Marketing the Air Jordan

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Everyone about my age remembers when Nike’s Air Jordan shoes first became a thing. It wasn’t just the ‘coolness’ of the shoe or the fact that Jordan endorsed them, although Jordan’s popularity was the bulk of it. His athletic dominance night after night turned him into the biggest star in the biggest sport. Nike’s control of basketball shoes began with a likeable star and a genius marketing campaign; it continues using the same formula today. 

Live sports on TV took a major financial leap in the late seventies and another in the eighties. Athlete salaries spiked in all three major sports (basketball, baseball, football) owing largely to television contracts for professional sports. Big contracts for TV rights ensured that clubs had larger payrolls. More people watching sports meant more people for advertisers to sell to.   

 What better way to sell products without creating events to market products. Instead of going to trade shows and marketing new kicks to dealers, well heeled (pun intended) shoe companies could sell direct. And sell they did.

The Air Jordan taught us that people bought products that had buzz and not quality. Not saying Michael’s shoe was crap just that its quality was beside the point. The aggressive marketing and Jordan’s easy charm sold the shoe more than anything. The sneaker aesthetics played a role, who didn’t love the black patent leather covering the bottom like a twenties era spat? Every single new pair looked different than the other models on the floor at the time. Most basketball shoes were pretty boring until Nike proved it was possible to sell a colorful trendy high top with some flash.
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 The Air Jordan became the “it” product for kids desperate to stay hip.

The original shoes didn’t conform to the league's standard on colors that matched the jersey. So the NBA fined him. Nike picked up the tab for the fines and used the controversy to spotlight the banned shoes in commercials. A selling opportunity was born out of an unlikely event. 

Jordan the standout. Nike the rebel.  
Mens Air Jordan 1 Retro High Rare Air Max Orange Black White 332550-80, Size: 13

After that Nike could use release dates to ramp up awareness of the shoe, a very expensive one for the time. The first model sold at $65. A sky high sum for the mid-eighties. After the first few models the company made just enough shoes to keep public interest high. By never making more than they could sell they ensured that interest stayed high and the prices even higher.

Gaming companies like Xbox and Playstation used to do this all the time. Create hype over the new system and produce less than you expect to sell. It does make sense to not overdo a good thing. Overproduction is the death knell for businesses hoping to keep selling similar models year after year. Too much of anything in the marketplace drives the cost down making the “it” product something everyone can buy. Better to make a few and sell them high. Keep demand soaring like the iconic Jumpman, always in the air.

 Nike knew it had a gold mine.

The increased money coming in from TV contracts added to increased visibility of stars able to sell, and sell some more. Jordan never made a lot of money in salary. Until his last couple years he was between 2 and 3 million a year. His money was through endorsements, none bigger or more important than Nike.


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I read a quote recently from Kevin Durant about Nike’s popularity. “…Shoe companies have a real big influence on where these kids go. So, nobody wants to play in Under Armours, I’m sorry. Like the top kids because they all play Nike.” He was answering a question from Bill Simmons about why he didn’t want to go to Maryland (his home state school). Maryland is also ground zero for Under Armour apparel and shoes. I don’t know if Durant is right about kids not wanting to wear Under Armours, but knowing how Nike does marketing I wouldn’t be surprised if they set up the question and answer that way. Create doubt about the opponent.

Others have tried to crack the Nike code in basketball and get their own superstars like Jordan. Under Armour famously signed Steph Curry away from Nike. Adidas has a few stars, Damien Lillard and James Harden that show potential. But the battle is uphill for competitors hoping to cash in and create the next "it" shoe. Talented kids are spotted at the AAU(Amateur Athletic Union) level now and most just before that. The shoe companies sponsor many AAU teams with free sneakers and gear. Often kids want to remain loyal to a brand and sign with a college that also wears the same brand. At least that’s what Kevin Durant suggested. There is no bigger player in the shoe game than Nike and more teams wearing kicks with the swoosh on them the better it is for Nike Co. Now the Jordan brand is separate from the parent Nike but still a subsidiary. 

Long story short, Nike has been in this ad game for a while and they don’t take it for granted. Their sales techniques are still aggressive and they don’t hesitate to use bad press when it fits the situation. It will be fun to see them loose a little ground to Adidas or Under Armour and keep the shoe wars hot.

 Now if I could just afford a pair of the new Jordans.

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Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Writing for Dummies

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I’ve had a chance now to look back at several writings I’ve compiled over the last 5 years or so. The offerings are pretty slim there from 2011 to 2012, like searching for sea shells at the community pool. I graduated from college in 2012 and after that my writing began to improve a bit more. I determined to write more often but I held out on establishing a rigorous goal, a certain amount of words per week or so. I think I was genuinely worried about losing the passion for writing and missing that inspiration. I didn’t want writing to become homework, something to dread and avoid at all cost. That kind of thinking was nonsense. If we only worked when we felt like it how much would honestly get done?

 It’s the lazy man’s way out to talk about passion and inspiration. I figured that out the hard way.

I had a friend in college who majored in classical guitar. No one worked harder at practicing. He put in countless hours playing in his room and learning new techniques (is that a musical thing, not sure). I don’t think engineering or physics students put in as much time as him in the actual pursuit of excellence. Engineering is hardly an easy path but no one dedicated more time than the music majors. I don’t know if he stuck with it till graduation. I kind of lost touch with him after that year in the dorm. I know he had days when he didn’t want to practice for hours at a time but the discipline demanded he improve by putting in work. He wanted to be a great guitar player. He understood what it took.

If I broke down my previous writing into 3 segments it would probably look like this. First couple years I just needed to put something, anything into words whatever the format. I made a conscience decision to ignore all grammatical errors and focus on nothing but filling up a page with words. The essay needed to reflect a coherent thought but beyond that I wouldn’t get caught ‘churchin it up’. “For God’s sake man, just write it” was the idea. I knew if I focused on spelling or subject/verb agreement stuff I would never finish. Getting hung up on perfect grammar was a mental block for me. Now I can write much more carefree and go back later for edits.

Second, I knew that writing essays only once a month or so would lead to a pile of crappy essays. Here is where the ‘but what if I lose the passion’ instinct kicked in. People who are good have to work at it, whatever the discipline. I remembered my guitar strumming friend playing late into the night while staring at sheet music in his dorm. I wasn’t ready for hours of staring at a computer screen, but I could certainly do better than I was. I still hadn’t set specific goals but I managed to start writing every week, after that a couple times a week. I started doing the blog as a way to keep myself accountable and put out ideas that are edited and coherent-ish.

Third, I’ve started writing about things I didn't understand well by doing small amounts of research and putting together web blogs, some freelance work writing for companies that need copy. This phase is still in its infancy but making sense of topics I don’t fully understand is kind of fun. And I get to stretch myself a bit into other types of writing, and learning. It doesn’t pay well but the point is to get better and improve all around. I still mostly write practice logs for myself. I read the book On Writing: A memoir of the Craft by Stephen King and got the idea to write to a word count. King does at least 2000 words a day. I was thinking half of that to start out, not sure though.

So what have I learned so far about writing, and myself? Write when you don’t feel like it and make it as regular a habit as brushing your teeth. Sometimes it is dreary and my only concern is to get in the word count as quick as possible so I can go watch TV. The really dreary times are not as frequent though and I’ve found the more consistent the practice, the more I look forward to it.
Habitual activities designed to improve skill do pay off.


My classical guitar pal could have told me that years ago. If only I had asked. 

Wednesday, October 4, 2017

Why so Cynical?

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Why cynicism?

Cynicism is learned trait the way anything is. Ever tried to throw a baseball? The first thing you learn is how to hit the strike zone. When you’re a kid this is the most important thing. Other kids will likely swing and miss at pitches right over the plate. Young kids don’t have the skill in their arms or the timing in their wrists to square up and drive one out to left field. Some advance quicker than others but baseball is a game of averages. Most kids swing and miss. Learn to throw strikes first. Worry about sliders and curve balls later. Negativity works the same way.

Cynicism creates early doubt in small personal matters but if not corrected becomes your default philosophy on life. 

Kids learn to be cynical right around the time they learn to play baseball. It isn’t intentional of course. No parent pops up off the chair on a beautiful Saturday and says “Listen, Toby (ruffles his son’s hair) these Senators and Congressman in Washington are out to screw us hard working folks. They line their pockets at the expense of decent people like me and your mom.” It’s generally more subtle. When effective, cynicism creates a feedback loop that parses every success and explains every failure.

How many times have you blamed a football player for dropping a pass because he wasn’t in a “contract year” or blasted the electric company for being “greedy” when the bill shot up in the summer? Ever blame the church clergy for having their “hands in the till” after a Christmas donation push?

Usually we learn to expect losing from our favorite team. The Chicago Bears fans have a saying, shorthand really: S.O.B for Same Ol Bears. Did the kicker miss a 30 yard field goal to lose the game in overtime? “SOB”. Did they just burn through another quarterback that throws picks and loses games? “SOB” In reality most franchises have up and down seasons and similarities between fan complaints can be heard across fandom. Most people dump on their team.

Cynicism plants a seed that says “Expect less”.

Cynical people are class conscience. I used to think it was an old world or even European thing to view people by breeding and money, Downton Abby style. Maybe it always existed in America but more in pockets of the country than something in the ether. I see resentment of success and wealth more than disdain for the poor. This is almost the reverse of the old model where titled land holders joined exclusive clubs and kept ‘undesirables’ out of certain industries.

 In America we have too many ‘victims’, victims of poverty, of discrimination, of sexism, of homophobia and of ‘reckless’ capitalism. If you’re a victim there’s a group. A person who imagines they are taken advantage of will most likely always feel that way. The negativity reminds the individual of the mistreatment, unfairness and the ‘stacked deck’. 

Cynicism is easy because you don't need to defend the failures of a system or belief. You needn't have awkward conversations about why a famous athlete (Lance Armstrong) turned out to be crooked and vindictive. We can cover ourselves up with cynicism like a shield and pretend we “ain’t surprised” when someone famous falls from the pedestal. 

Change is tough for jaded people but some common wisdom from the interwebs goes like this. First recognize the problem. If you always bring down the conversation in group with a dig about pop culture, religion and politics, you have a problem. Second, stop hanging around others who complain and assume ulterior motives about everything from sports to the manufacturing of foods-“they use horse meat you know!” If people have stopped being around you because of your dark cloud and social anomie consider yourself warned. Third, accentuate the positives (yes I know, but it fits).

If being a cynic means assuming conspiracy or wicked design behind every good deed, try instead to relate something positive with the individual. You don’t have to ignore that inner Sméagol that says “I knew they were up to something” but don’t encourage it either. Overwhelm negative with positive. Do it enough times and the new positive feedback replaces the old.


The same mind that learned how to throw a curve ball and picked up cynical thinking can undo it through replacement thinking and positive attitude. The mind is a wonderful tool. 

Monday, October 2, 2017

Sadness in Vegas

Sadly another shooting claimed the lives of almost 60 people late last night. This time a Vegas country music concert became a horrific scene of mayhem as fans ran for cover as a man from across the street rained down bullets on them. I got the alert early this morning on my phone. I need to turn that thing off for peace and quiet before I start the day. Some days are tough enough to just begin as it is. This is partly why I start off my days with teaching and a bible verse. I need to get my mind centered on positive things. Also I avoid the radio in the car on the way to work. I used to love the local talk radio station, anymore though I need to go to God.

There is still too much we don’t know about why the 64 year old single man decided to go sniper on a crowd of people. I won’t say conspiracy but some things don’t add up. He used a fully automatic weapon. Those are almost impossible to get even by illegal means and he wasn’t really a gun guy. He owned a handgun and a couple of rifles but nothing in his past suggests a fascination with firearms. The Islamic terrorist group I.S.I.S claimed responsibility but even this seemed fishy. So far investigators can’t locate any evidence of that. I am sure older white Americans occasionally sign up for jihad without anyone knowing how radical they are, but it isn’t likely. This guy owned a handful of properties and seemed to be well off if not wealthy. Nothing suggests he might fire indiscriminately into a crowd killing 60 and wounded over 500.

 This was monstrous--a real nightmare scenario for Vegas police. Over 40,000 fans crammed into an open air venue make a perfect target for a psychopath. Unfortunately even large scale mass murders like this recent act of terror are getting too common. This may carry a news cycle for a few more days; the ugliness of it washed over by the regularity of it. Not that the slaughter of so many people happens every few weeks but the lone killer taking a few with him before he offs himself is shockingly regular. The Orlando night club shooting happened just over a year ago. Most of these acts of terrorism, recently, are connected to Islam. This may be as well but he doesn’t seem like the convert to Islam type.


 I.S.I.S has been keen on a war with the West from the Paris concert killings to the Brussels airport bombing and truck attacks in London. They have professed jihad and set about recruiting Americans, Brits, French and other Europeans. This latest one is a real mystery, a total head scratcher. It could take a week or so to make sense of it. God be with the families of those poor souls gunned down for doing nothing more than enjoying live country music. I started off trying to read other stuff online, Facebook posts and job board listings. Everything seems hollow next to this. Tom Petty also died today but there doesn’t seem room in our minds for mention. Nothing against Tom but a whole lot of people just had their world turned upside down. Fixating on celeb deaths and sports feels so wrong.   

Friday, September 29, 2017

Economy and Trade: the next 20 years

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There is a shift afoot.

The election of Donald Trump means a change is coming in economic thinking at the policy level. Globalization has defined the trading order for the last 25 years or so, but like a rusty freighter it is starting to show its age. Assembly line workers who saw their jobs outsourced have always felt cheated. Replacement jobs and training haven’t been there for laid off men and women hoping to replace big incomes. It isn’t just Donald Trump who is pulling back from economic entanglements; the Europeans are seeing a rising tide of nationalism. This is bound to change the international thinking on economics and determine trade policy for the next 20 years.

Economics is theory, the big picture stuff. It won’t explain why cotton prices suddenly jumped up in June or why steel prices dropped in December, that’s business. It can give you scenarios where prices might swing, or historic trends where political and social pressures existed on the market. Economics is a snapshot of the existing trading system and a historic record of how it got that way.

It isn’t a surprise that it’s changing; the dismal science is due a makeover. Economic Nationalism is on the rise in America and across Europe. Economic Nationalism is a phrase used by Steve Bannon (one time Trump advisor) to explain his view that the U.S. government should support American companies through tariffs, subsidies, tax breaks and quotas at the expense of other countries. So basically everything once thought of as anti-competitive Steve is for. Did you hear the president’s inaugural speech in January? That was Bannon. He wrote it. It pitted ‘elites’ against regular folks, politicians against citizens and nations against nations. It wasn’t exactly nasty but it laid out a case (in some minds) for a government that hasn’t valued its citizens. It has chased after foreign investment and low wage workers.

 Like multiple theories of economics though, there is some good and some bad.

Why do protectionist policies lead to sluggish growth? because any business or industry that isn’t pushed to keep prices low gets lazy. Companies that rely on regular installments of federal money tend to relax their research and development side and pay higher wages. The downside is Uncle Sam just took away the small firm’s ability to compete. 

The wild tiger is more likely to hunt than one in the zoo.

I always go half-way with Bannon. Foreign countries like China play a different version of trade than we do. The economic models we learned in school that show how trade benefits everyone are seriously lacking. You remember the Ricardo ones don’t you? Country A has sheep and makes wool clothing, country B grows gapes and bottles wine. Instead of country A growing grapes and bottling their own wine and country B doing the same with sheep and wool, they trade. This trade creates an advantage for both nations since they specialize and gain the comparative lower costs.

The model works well on a mathematical level but there are too many missing pieces that throw off the balance. The missing pieces get chalked up to ‘elites’ benefiting themselves at the expense of hard working Americans. But it's really tough to draw a straight line between jobs going to China and long term unemployment in the US. The gains are spread out, more diffuse. They mean lower prices at Target and Kohls but lower wages for workers. Gains for some, losses for others.

 It’s a tough sell for politicians: “Vote for me and you’ll probably lose your job but don’t worry, the gains will be marginal and spread out.”

Trade is anything but fair. Modern economies have all sorts of clever ways around straightforward competition. Tariffs aren’t used a lot anymore since a lot of work has been done to eliminate them. Countries still use subsidies to prop up their industry. Agriculture in the US couldn’t survive without them, neither could Chinese steel manufacturers or Japanese car makers. So the Economic Nationalists are right about foreign cheaters either helping their companies or propping up the currency.

“Why bother playing by an old trade model where we get screwed every time? How about instead we help our own companies first and trade later”? He figures.

Mainly because in order to grow big companies need overseas markets and blocking tires from Mexico means they’ll refuse to buy machinery from us. Also, I don’t think Steve realizes that certain manufacturing jobs don’t pay what they used to. Everyday market forces make it impossible. Foreign car companies like Honda, Nissan and Volkswagen started getting better and cheaper, right around the early nineties. Americans began buying them and putting a squeeze on Detroit. Putting up tariffs on Japanese and Korean car makers would have held off the onslaught for a while, but GM and Ford couldn’t compete overseas forever. Legacy costs also hampered the American companies; paying ruinous fees to retired workers would have undercut their ability to be competitive anyway. 

Banon and Trump are right to be skeptical about Chinese business and current iterations of ‘free trade’. For both Republican and Democrat lawmakers any international trade deal was considered good, because ‘free market’ equals good—or something like that. 


The Trump version of economics, which is really Bannon’s, insists companies look first ‘in country’ for tax deals and breaks before leaving for a low wage environment. As to how the policy toward economics will be affected it remains to be seen. Most supporters of globalization (free trade) sound a little humbler these days as populist politicians get elected all over the Western world. They admit that the benefits of trade have been gradual and slow while the downsides have been immediate and ugly—losing a job always is. Globalists aren’t ready to change their belief in the free market (neither am I) but admitting to missteps is a start. Agreeing to reconsider, and walk away from, large scale trade bills is a good move.   

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

"If Grace than Deeds"

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Depression is a strong word for occasional ‘funks’ in life that drag us down.

 It suggests clinical, medical problems that demand attention and action. I fall into these shallow pits occasionally and have found the quickest way out is through selfless behavior, good works. No this isn’t one of those “So what is your biggest weakness?” interview questions where I get to pretend my weakness is actually a strength. “Well you know..I just love everyone so much, I don’t know when to say no.” This actually helps. Focus on someone in need. Any need. Just get involved with helping others and stop focusing on self. That clears up the funk clouds quicker than anything.

Good works allow others outside the faith to see a healthy example of love. That love exemplified through Christ’s death and resurrection is the goal, salvation is the point. Lead them to Jesus.

Good works have gotten a bad rap the last couple of years. Works are constantly juxtaposed with grace, as if humans must choose between them. Like the scene from Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade where a totally subjective grail choice determines the drinker’s fate. If it’s been a while since you’ve seen it, Donavan the antiquities collector goes for the shiniest most bejeweled cup to drink ‘eternal life’ from. He sips from the wrong one mistaking it for the holy grail. Tthe Knight deadpans “He chose poorly” as Donavan’s rapidly aging body decomposes seconds after his sip. He got one chance and picked the wrong cup.  

We think our choice is limited to accepting grace and eschewing deeds. Grace and deeds are not mutually exclusive, they exist together. One is a gift and the other constitutes action--if grace than deeds.

 Ephesians 2:8-9 “For it is by grace you have been saved, through faith-and this is not from yourself, it is the gift of God—not by works so that no one can boast.” (NIV)

Paul uses ‘deeds’ so Christians see an obvious contrast between something offered and something earned. He is saying that no one can earn it so don’t even try. Good works are still an essential part of Christianity and witnessing to the lost. Again, the best way to show the character of our Father is through good works and generosity. Don’t imagine deeds aren’t critical to winning souls and touching lives.

James 1:27 “Religion that is pure and undefiled before God the Father is this: to visit orphans and widows in their affliction, and to keep oneself unstained from the world.” (ESV)

There can be no doubt that ‘widows and orphans’ falls comfortably under the works category. Works are encouraged in order to show the Father’s love. Just don’t imagine works can be traded in for credit at any time. Salvation through grace is free. Isn’t that wonderful?

The knowledge alone should get you out of your funk.





Sunday, September 3, 2017

Overgrowth

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I like to prune my landscaping area for overgrown weeds.

Actually I don’t like it but I have to, if only for a couple times a month. I am that guy who really wants a decent looking yard with trimmed plants and hedges but balks at having to do the work. Once I start it isn’t so bad to keep going but the work is never done. It seems to get worse every year. I realized this today while pulling weeds out of the exact same spots as always. I’ve never put in the time to prevent them from coming back. Not really. In one case I dug a small trench on the back side of the fence to prevent crabgrass from jumping from the lawn to my evergreen area.

 Oklahoma has these strange weeds that grow horizontal instead of straight up. If they grew straight up it would be easy to yank them right out of the ground. Because they run along the ground it’s impossible to see them until they’ve grown a couple feet long. They get through mulch and wrap around plants and bushes, entangling themselves and making it tough to pull out. Keeping them away requires serious dedication because they grow without water and seem to thrive everywhere. 

The quick fix is to rip out the existing weeds and wait till the plants are covered again next month. A better way is to put in place barriers that prevent encroaching brush from taking over. It takes longer though and requires more attentiveness. It’s worth it but mostly I just don’t like working that hard.

 Keeping my yard nice takes more diligence than I often can muster. The Christian life feels this way too often. Those unattended areas of life become havens for all types of unwanted growth. Zones that get ignored, un-managed and open to influence become the areas overrun with messy problems. Only when we put real effort and attention into stopping the weeds of life from getting through do we make any progress. Most of us get lazy though. We deal with the results of overgrowth. We apologize for angry outbursts aimed at family; we break off disastrous relationships after serious emotional damage. We clean up the mess. We clean up the mess because it’s easier than preventing the problem. It takes work. We hate work. 

Many get comfortable dealing with the overgrowth convinced it isn’t a big deal. “Everyone has issues, after all” we tell ourselves so we can keep going without putting in any real work. It isn’t until the weeds become unmanageable and we get exhausted with the process that we make a drastic change. We dig a trench, cut the grass, remove excess roots and pay attention to unwanted growth. 

Only by setting a plan and sticking to it with all the diligence we can muster does our life begin to change. Real change. Change that sticks. The kind others see and learn from. One effective lesson from Alcoholics Anonymous is to do a ‘fearless inventory of ourselves’ in order to progress. Another way to say that is to do an honest assessment of past behavior and evaluate potential trip wires. This doesn’t just have to be about drugs and drinking, or even alcohol related triggers. Chances are most of us need to clean up areas where behavior often gets out of control. Like the weeds it comes back stronger if ignored. Be targeted and honest about the problems.

Tempted to rob the bank? Maybe use the drive through instead—and leave the ski mask at home. Have trouble staying faithful to your wife? Keep away from nude beaches and massage houses on your ‘cultural appreciation’ trip. Seriously though, for every hang-up there exists ways to avoid traps and keep the weeds from getting out of control.

Besides, we aren’t alone.


“I have told you these things, so that in me you may have peace. In this world you’ll have trouble but take heart! I have overcome the world.” John 16:33 (NIV)