Bunker Busters and F Bombs: Iran isn't Going Away

 

Trump avoids War but Gets Sidetracked by Foreign Conflicts

The news is usually my source of writing inspiration, but I’m struggling to understand what’s going on in the Middle East right now. The only thing I have is my instincts and they’re telling me to pump the brakes on this ceasefire. Trump isn’t falling into the war trap that so many seem to be pushing him towards. He agreed to destroy the nuclear facilities in Iran with bunker busting bombs. That part was successful, we assume. But just before the ceasefire was supposed to begin, Iran broke the ceasefire.

Israel retaliated. It’s not clear to me if Israel retaliated for the missiles that hit a US airbase in Qatar, or if they retaliated for an attack on their own soil. Trump was pissed when reporters asked him about it. He said Israel and Iran don’t know what the ‘F’ they’re doing. After supposedly getting both countries to agree to a ceasefire, they unloaded their munitions. After Trump’s tweet the internet got silly. MAGA types started posting the tweet and bragging about DJT’s “Skillz”. I count myself among the MAGA faithful but this was seriously stupid. I wanted to scream “This is the Middle East; it’s never over!”. Frankly Trump was a bit too eager to claim victory himself. Using dopey language about no more hate and peace and harmony in the region. 

He wants to move past this quickly and I don't blame him.

Trump believes everyone can move past old hatreds. Just toss in a few incentives and get the business interests on board. Who wouldn’t want to make a deal and start developing condo’s in the Levant eh? For all of his straight talk and no nonsense attitude, he seems to genuinely think he can make lasting peace. But the US should be done with the Middle East if the military is asked to intervene. Israel should remain and ally. Saudi Arabia should be a business partner that we keep at a distance. There is a mess to deal with in Ukraine after the last administration, foolishly pushed that country into an unwinnable war.

Trump told the world that the Ukraine was would be over as shortly after his term started. That’s probably the biggest misstep of his presidency so far. It’s clear to me that he wants to be a domestic president and focus on spending, immigration and law enforcement. He gets very irritated with these foreign conflicts and sees them as a distraction from his domestic agenda. A president that wants to focus on his own country is a welcome relief, but these foreign conflicts keep pulling his attention away. Like Michael Corleone, every time he thinks he's out...they pull him right back in. 

But the good news from this so called '12 day war' is that he seems to have sidelined the neocons this time. He agreed to destroy the nuclear facility in Fordow but not do the regime change that the Israelis wanted.

Israel has every right to demand regime change in the region. But they must do it alone, and they clearly won’t. As time frame’s go, it’s probably right for it. Iran is weak, their proxies in Yemen are beaten and their army in Lebanon (Hezbollah) was destroyed by the IDF. But we’ve given so much blood in the Middle East that I think it’s time for someone else. The Israelis are natural allies, but Trump made the right call to avoid doing more that bombing the facilities. As a concession to not demanding regime change, it’s a better option. 

I hope this latest cease fire and subsequent bombing shakes Trump out of his naivete. At the very least, stop calling every minor statement from world leaders a win. Foreign leaders lie. There is a reason why president’s avoid doing “deals” in the Middle East. Those people are full of ancient hatreds and deep resentment going back thousands of years. I’m making a cultural statement, not a racial one.

I recognize that America is deeply involved and ignoring these conflicts isn’t possible. But the president should be above grandiose statements that fall apart in less than 24 hours. The worst part is that anyone older than 30 could tell you this would likely happen. But even MAGA voters get over their skis all the time on this stuff. They love their big Trump-as-badass memes. But they look silly in no time flat. I think it’s time for some humility all around.