Bunker Busters and F Bombs: Iran isn't Going Away

 

Trump avoids War but Gets Sidetracked by Foreign Conflicts

The news is usually my source of writing inspiration, but I’m struggling to understand what’s going on in the Middle East right now. The only thing I have is my instincts and they’re telling me to pump the brakes on this ceasefire. Trump isn’t falling into the war trap that so many seem to be pushing him towards. He agreed to destroy the nuclear facilities in Iran with bunker busting bombs. That part was successful, we assume. But just before the ceasefire was supposed to begin, Iran broke the ceasefire.

Israel retaliated. It’s not clear to me if Israel retaliated for the missiles that hit a US airbase in Qatar, or if they retaliated for an attack on their own soil. Trump was pissed when reporters asked him about it. He said Israel and Iran don’t know what the ‘F’ they’re doing. After supposedly getting both countries to agree to a ceasefire, they unloaded their munitions. After Trump’s tweet the internet got silly. MAGA types started posting the tweet and bragging about DJT’s “Skillz”. I count myself among the MAGA faithful but this was seriously stupid. I wanted to scream “This is the Middle East; it’s never over!”. Frankly Trump was a bit too eager to claim victory himself. Using dopey language about no more hate and peace and harmony in the region. 

He wants to move past this quickly and I don't blame him.

Trump believes everyone can move past old hatreds. Just toss in a few incentives and get the business interests on board. Who wouldn’t want to make a deal and start developing condo’s in the Levant eh? For all of his straight talk and no nonsense attitude, he seems to genuinely think he can make lasting peace. But the US should be done with the Middle East if the military is asked to intervene. Israel should remain and ally. Saudi Arabia should be a business partner that we keep at a distance. There is a mess to deal with in Ukraine after the last administration, foolishly pushed that country into an unwinnable war.

Trump told the world that the Ukraine was would be over as shortly after his term started. That’s probably the biggest misstep of his presidency so far. It’s clear to me that he wants to be a domestic president and focus on spending, immigration and law enforcement. He gets very irritated with these foreign conflicts and sees them as a distraction from his domestic agenda. A president that wants to focus on his own country is a welcome relief, but these foreign conflicts keep pulling his attention away. Like Michael Corleone, every time he thinks he's out...they pull him right back in. 

But the good news from this so called '12 day war' is that he seems to have sidelined the neocons this time. He agreed to destroy the nuclear facility in Fordow but not do the regime change that the Israelis wanted.

Israel has every right to demand regime change in the region. But they must do it alone, and they clearly won’t. As time frame’s go, it’s probably right for it. Iran is weak, their proxies in Yemen are beaten and their army in Lebanon (Hezbollah) was destroyed by the IDF. But we’ve given so much blood in the Middle East that I think it’s time for someone else. The Israelis are natural allies, but Trump made the right call to avoid doing more that bombing the facilities. As a concession to not demanding regime change, it’s a better option. 

I hope this latest cease fire and subsequent bombing shakes Trump out of his naivete. At the very least, stop calling every minor statement from world leaders a win. Foreign leaders lie. There is a reason why president’s avoid doing “deals” in the Middle East. Those people are full of ancient hatreds and deep resentment going back thousands of years. I’m making a cultural statement, not a racial one.

I recognize that America is deeply involved and ignoring these conflicts isn’t possible. But the president should be above grandiose statements that fall apart in less than 24 hours. The worst part is that anyone older than 30 could tell you this would likely happen. But even MAGA voters get over their skis all the time on this stuff. They love their big Trump-as-badass memes. But they look silly in no time flat. I think it’s time for some humility all around.  

On Blogging and the World since 2020

 Complaining About the Deep State and the Nature of Blogging

I’ve lost my nerve a bit on writing. Not that I’m not doing it. I am, but my blog pieces are getting further and further apart. 

Putting something on my website happens like twice a month now. It’s a serious fall from the previous 10 years or so. The first couple of years I was still finding my footing. I don’t count 2014 or 2015. They’re both a blip on the radar of a blog that was still finding an identity. Did it ever find it? I’m sure a clever person could scan it and find similar points of interest or a singular ‘voice’ as the writers say. The topics changed quite a bit, or at least I thought. Politics, especially foreign policy, held my interest so much in the early days that I shared my thoughts. Like most bloggers most of my opinions were like anyone else’s, off the mark by a wider margin than I’d like to admit.

That’s hardly the point. It’s really the experience and accountability I was after.

Know It All

I don’t think you’ll find a persistent arrogant or obtuse tone throughout. I tried to clean up most of pieces though the editing process. Smugness is a crutch for young writers fresh off their media studies class. I won’t deny that I had a touch of that. I will deny that they overwhelmed my writing as to make it sickening for the reader to consume, like a fountain coke mixed with too much syrup. There are times when I went too hard I’m sure. But I always tried to sound reasonable. I hope I do in real life as well. Hopefully I was smart enough to recognize that not all writing holds up well over the years. One day’s ‘SOB’ is another day’s ‘Honest Abe’. How many times has public opinion shifted on Kayne West? In the last 5 years or so the world’s changed a lot and I’m thinking differently about everything.

Know Even Less

I said 5 years because it’s about when Covid hit and we were never the same. The world didn’t change really, it just got revealed to be something darker and uglier than I think I understood before. The stolen election of 2020 was the first pillar of American greatness to fall. Such an obvious theft should have been a wake up for all Americans. For many it was, but it’s hard to believe that when your guy won the election. I’m not sure I would’ve listened either if Trump had won on such shaky grounds. But to me it showed that the deep state runs the ‘important’ affairs of life. The president doesn’t (can’t) do much in the way of changing policy. Congress doesn’t either, by the way. An Executive Order (EO) does not a policy make. Someone needs to put it into practice.

 The Constitution was a brilliant piece of legislation and even worked for a time. We’re off it now, same as the gold standard. The language persists, we still use phrases like separation of powers and judicial review. But they’re applied haphazardly if at all.  

Know For Sure

We say deep state now because it sounds more sinister. It’s also a better phrase than bureaucracy because it suggests an entrenched, network of shadowy figures with malice and greed in their hearts. A bureaucracy is just an inefficient blob of well-meaning civil servants. It’s the guy at the DMV who didn’t approve your permit because you didn’t fill out form 1455 correctly. The deep state includes those people and adds NGOs (Non Governmental Organizations) and private companies. A lot aren’t even government employees. They contract with certain federal authorities and pull down millions of dollars through various cut outs. The exposure of the USAID, via DODGE, and its nefarious dealings is one such example.

The deep state is an impossible network to quantify but it does have access to a lot of money. In that way they’re a bit like the KnightsTemplar in the Middle Ages. A group of professional soldiers started a small Christian army to protected the territory acquired by the Crusaders. They provided safe passage for traveling Knights who warred against Muslims in the Holy Land. They set up banking houses and issued legal tender all over Europe so Crusaders didn’t have to carry large sums of money. They became incredibly wealthy with their private army and land holdings. Eventually they emerged with their own order, customs and ceremonies. They were a government unto themselves. What started out as charity of the church, turned into a group of wealthy mercenaries who dictated terms to kings and rulers through their banks. Philip IV eventually had them arrested on charges of blasphemy and sodomy. He pillaged their holdings and dissolved the order.

Conclusion

It's not a perfect comparison but it works. Like the knights, the deep state has a vast network that expands to a vast number of interests. The only way to get at unraveling their influence is to hold individuals accountable for their crimes. Or at the very least, threaten someone who is obviously guilty and make them give up names the way the cops do in mob movies. The lack of any real punishment is why the deep corruption persists. I’m not suggesting they be held accountable for false crimes the way the Templars were. But their power should be reined in and their kingdom taken away.

The Knights Templar didn’t lose their power until Jerusalem fell in the 13^th century. Without a controlling army in the Holy Land, the Templars lost their reason for being. The deep state is full of little fiefdoms with a ready supply of funding and a legal system that covers their flank. I had hoped Dodge would be the beginning of the end of their reason for being. Sadly, it’s going to take more than that. But it will happen.

The lack of real understanding about political issues is why the blog has changed so much. It’s hard to write about things you don’t fully understand. I do feel like 'first principles' will focus less on day to day politicking going forward.