Underperforming Talent: The Cubs in 2026

 "Hey Chicago What Do You Say? The Home Field Advange Is Gone Away"

The Cubs were soundly defeated over the last week by the surging San Diego Padres.

It’s October. I would’ve loved to see the north siders compete for the National League pennant. Sadly, they didn’t have enough offense at the finish. Ironically, it was the offense that kept the team going most of the year. Pitching was abysmal. Cade Horton went down with an injury early in the year, as did Edward Cabrara and Ben Brown. Horton had Tommy John surgery, which means we won’t see him for at least a year. Justin Steele never made it back, although this was the first year he was eligible to play after the TJ surgery. The bullpen wasn’t a lot better. Daniel Palencia missed a good chunk of the season, as did Caleb Thielbar and Phil Maton. Injuries to pitchers are as common as broken bats on inside fastballs. But this year was particularly brutal.

Not excuses though. When the last strike is called by the home plate umpire it’s time to evaluate what went wrong and move on to next season. Sometimes it helps to just move on and forget the evaluation. From the beginning, team bats were streaky. They’d score 15 runs on a Friday at Wrigley with a calm wind and struggle to score 1 on Saturday. Ultimately though, their defense and hitting was among the best in the league. I’m strategically avoiding specifics here. This is off the top of my head. I’m doing the obligatory post season handwringing. I’m in no mood to look things up.

 I’ve got the sads and I won’t be bothered to cheer up. This year was a disappointment but not altogether awful.

I listened to some of the usual podcast voices after the realization of another lost season. Naturally they’re angry. With a payroll among the top 5 in the game the Cubs should do better. It’s understandable, but here is what you can’t do. You can’t praise the organization for solid moves early in the year, and criticize them when it goes south. Edward Cabrera is a perfect example. By all accounts, he was the best pitcher available in the off season. The podcast bros loved the move-get the best guy available.

The front office sent Owen Caissie (outfielder prospect) to the Marlins in a trade. I’m sure the trade involved money as well, I just don’t remember. He only made it a handful of games before blisters, or was it elbow tightness? I remember he fell over at some point trying to field a grounder and had to be carted off the field.

Cabrera’s season a microcosm of the Cub’s season, long on potential and short on delivery.

 That we won 89 games is a testament to the defense and Pete Crow-Armstrong’s (PCA) incredible 40-40 year. But Cabrera felt like a perfect addition. Then Alex Bregman signed a huge $300 plus million contract to play 3^rd base. The podcast bros loved this move too. Alex started slow and struggled to stay at a 220 average for a long time. But he came through late, most of August, as an offensive juggernaut right along with PCA. I’m not sure if the hefty contract will prove to be a great idea. The front office thought this would be the year to compete. Everyone did.  

I had doubts about even getting past the first playoff round after the last series against the Brewers. The Cubbies never made any headway on the Brewers in the division. In fact, Milwaukee put even more distance between themselves and Chicago at every turn. Whatever they’re doing in Wisconsin for the Brew Crew, it’s a credit to their farm system that churns out quality pitching like craft beer. They’ve dominated the Central division for the last seven years at a bargain to the ownership. How are they doing it? One or two years is an anomaly, seven years is a finely tuned machine. If the Cubs struggled to win the division, what chance would they have in the playoffs? As it turns out they hardly won the Wild Card race.

So I’m lamenting like the podcasters. I feel their frustration like all of Cubs nation. But some of them (Locked On) are teeing off on the broadcasters, Jim Deshaies and John Sciambi (Boog) for their “poor” performance. Really guys? This is just general sulking about the state of the team. The TV guys don’t play baseball in case you missed that. Personally, I like the commentators. Going after the on air talent equals throwing a fit.

Where do we go from here?

Next year looks like a lockout for the MLB. This is what’s in the air at least. I don’t pretend to know the details. That feels like a long way off. We’re not even halfway through October yet. There is a good chance that if we, the fans, get a baseball season it will be truncated. I imagine they’ll dump Ian Happ, the last remaining player from the 2016 World Series Championship team. He’s up for contract. Right fielder Seiya Suzuki is up as well. He’s a lot younger though and a longer term contract makes sense for him. Just like at the beginning of this season, they need starting pitchers and at least one or two solid bullpen guys.

Maybe the Brewers will trade a pitcher to the struggling north siders? Something tells me that won’t happen.

Change the Scenery Change the Game

 

Creativity Demands The Occasional Shake Up

 What travel destination really speaks to you? Are you the mountain type or a beach bum? Do you prefer to visit family or leave family? Apparently eco-tourism is a thing but I can’t imagine why. I’ve still never been on a cruise ship. That’s a possibility.

Whether it’s a new place or a new position, without different experiences our creativity becomes stale. Trying new things forces us out of our default settings.

Illini Staycation

I get a week every year where I get to travel to faraway places and visit exotic locales. Strangely enough I always opt for the northern half of Illinois. It’s neither faraway nor exotic, especially since I grew up there. There doesn’t exist for me, a place in the world that I know better than Illinois. Why keep going back to the same place of your childhood? Because a still have friends and family in the area. The destination is only exciting when you’re with people you know and love. Even so, maybe I should try to visit a city or region Ive never been before. At least then I could say I tried something different. Travel always loomed large in my post college imagination.

But living in the same place for the last 18 years is a departure from what I assumed I’d be doing after graduation. I lived abroad for a year in China while teaching English. A difficult but worthwhile experince. Before that, I lived in Louisiana for 3 years while serving in the Army. That’s not exactly the resume of a world traveler but it’s a good start. If nothing else, it suggests that I’m able to live comfortably on my own in an area that I’m not familiar with.

 This was my goal for a long time, find a position with a company and travel. Any position would do. The point was to travel and explore and appreciate. I felt like I had the right mix of adventure and caution. We’ve all heard stories of young people with a sense of startling naiveté while traveling. I assumed I could avoid trouble, but you never really know. I had an embarrassing streak of naivete myself while living abroad. But blissfull ignorance will save you most of the time.

Good Enough for Government Work

As a former soldier I thought a federal government job would be perfect, especially one where I’d get to live in an embassy or a consulate. I couldn’t crack Uncle Sam's hiring code. After multiple attempts filling out applications for the State Department, Defense Department and countless others, I finally gave up. I won’t pretend I know exactly what these agencies are looking for. But the competition was fierce and I’m not sure I would’ve liked being a bureaucrat, or for that matter traveling. We associate taking trips with vacation. A natural extension of that is having a job and taking a lot of trips. That's not the reality of work trips. It's a hard lesson that a lot of traveling salesmen have learned. Sometimes we get the thing we asked for and it leaves us cold.

If you were ever a boss before you were ready, you’ll understand the feeling. I felt this early in my military career.

The Army likes to do room checks for single soldiers at the barracks. This always ticked me off. They would never go to a married family’s house and make sure the beds were made correctly. Single soldiers had to live by a different set of rules. We were much more likely to get in fights, break furniture and have raucous parties on the weekends, so I get it. I had to check the rooms of my crew mates on occasion. These were the people I partied with. You can’t tell your buddy that he’s in trouble for a disorderly room when you were hanging with him the night before. I wasn’t ready to be in charge of anything serious. I didn’t like the feeling of being the boss anyway. Everyone turns on you. Like Rodney Dangerfield, you get no respect.  

Group Work Humility

But if it’s respect you’re after, it’s a longer road than you might imagine. Being a boss of anything is delicate dance between finishing tasks and managing workers. You can’t just blow people up “I told you never to do that again!!” In the civilian world you can’t at least. Maybe it’s Ok in the Army. But it’s important to be the boss of something at some point. Even if you’re just the project leader on a short-term presentation. You’ll probably have at least one group work class in college. I never liked group work. I always thought it seemed inefficient. I like to work alone anyway. But do I like to work alone because I don’t want to hear from certain members of the group? Often yes. Group work forces you to consider other opinions. It forces cooperation. Whatever the project or assignment is about, the group dynamic exists in the corporate world. Get used to dealing with people you don’t like.

I didn’t want it, but I really needed it.

 If you approach life with an eager attitude and a willingness to learn, growth happens. When you’re put in charge, take a breath and expect that half the people won’t agree with your method. Learn to manage. Learn to listen. Learn to hold the line when the majority is against you. Develop a philosophy of leadership, no matter how small the task. The point is we all have default thinking that keeps us doing things the same way. Like my visits to Illinois, I enjoy going because it’s the place I know best. I like to work alone because I can set a pace that fits my schedule. Those are my default factory settings. But stretching my interests and engaging in new visits are upgrades to my thinking.  

Conclusion

Learning a new language helped me adapt to a very different culture. Living on a base in Louisiana showed me that discipline is the basis for maturity. I started out talking about vacation travel. The idea being, new experiences inform new ways of thinking.  It feels like something transitional is coming for me. No, I’m not taking a big vacation (I don’t think) but I feel something in the air. Let’s call it a change. It could be nothing, maybe my feelers are just wonky. They haven’t been cleaned in a while. But I could use some new experiences. Life is a little stale right now.

Good Writing Needs Reps

 

Push Away the Excuses and Write

 Laziness and apathy keep us from writing. Laziness is easy to spot, it’s hours of YouTube clips on better running and UFO explainers. It’s filling productive time with unproductive habits. Apathy is related to laziness. It’s a lack of concern for personal improvement. Apathy excuses a lack of effort by reasoning that it doesn’t matter anyway. Laziness takes a nap, apathy just shrugs.

Writing is a discipline because it requires discipline. We have to work the muscle and remind ourselves why we started in the first place.

Inspiration  

Writing disabused me of the “inspiration fairy” a long time ago. That’s my phrase for complete writing ideas that drop out of the sky into my head. It’s never been true, but I still occasionally fall for it. Great ideas come from working through problems. If you’re unsure if an idea makes sense, expose it to the light. Let others read it. If it has holes, people will let you know. That’s a little scarry of course, because it forces you to put your work out there. Part of having a blog is exposure to criticism. But if you aren’t ready for that, there is a trial-and-error space. That is, the editing phase of your work.

My process for all blog related material is to edit, not only grammar and spelling but also descriptions. By descriptions I mean, explainers about how a thing works. For instance, I wrote an article on how technocrats rule cities. I didn't use a textbook definition of the word technocrat, but I did explain enough of the process to make my point. When you make a point in an article like that, you need to get the facts right. Sometimes it requires more research than you would’ve liked. Occasionally, the sheer breadth of a subject forces me to abandon it altogether. Once you realize that you don’t really understand it, save the article you’ve started for that folder on your hard drive. Get back to writing about those things that you have some prior knowledge of.

Prior Knowledge

That isn’t to say you shouldn’t stretch your wings a bit and learn about another subject. But I’d limit strong opinions until you’ve got a firmer grasp. If you want to know what this sounds like when a novice comes on strong with an opinion, listen to a podcast where host and guest discuss the Bible with no relationship to it. It’s embarrassing. Not that only experts can talk on topic, but the conversation is worthless without some prior knowledge of scripture. There can also be real harm to the listener from a dishonest host. I made a similar error. I wrote a book review of George Gilder’s Life After Google without really understanding the technology he was describing. It made for a weak review despite my best efforts.

Apathy

That about sums about the laziness part, what about the apathy part? The national news has no shortage of opinions and hot takes. There is a sense that my writing is just blowing hot air into an August breeze. “Does anyone need my view of an issue that’s already been covered ad nauseum by writers that get paid to do this?” That’s apathy. That’s a way of minimizing your opinions, writing and solutions. It’s not a good excuse. You can use that phrase for every article. “Why write anything then?” comes the response. “If you don’t matter then you don’t matter?” But the goal of writing and sharing it is twofold. You need practice for one. It’s the most basic principle of sharpening any skill. You need the reps. The best way to get good pieces of writing is to stack up bad pieces of writing.

Second, you’re learning how to process information and propose solutions. This can only be done through writing out the individual parts and trying to put them together. Sometimes they don’t fit and you bring in new pieces while discarding old ones. Problem solving can be done exclusively through the mind, but good luck trying to sell it to others without writing it down. At some point you need to communicate the solution. Writing forces you to work out the kinks of your plan. It shows you right where the weak points are by highlighting the inconsistencies.

Let’s not forget, writing is communication. Good ideas need to be explained.

Tone

In 2016 I wrote a review of Peter Thiel’s speech at the Republican National convention. I couldn’t quite explain why it bothered me so much. It seemed he was asking the culture warriors (Christians) to put aside their offense taking at transgender and gay issues. He thought it was a distraction from more important economic issues. I struggled to explain why it felt misguided. That one article took at least 3 full edits before I finally settled on something articulate. I’m not sure if it hit the mark, but my arguments were straightforward and logical. Getting the tone right matters too. Thiel understands how culture issues are intentionally divisive. I wanted to give him credit for that, while still showing how he missed the mark.

At this stage (novice) of writing I’m not trying to convince anyone to change their mind. That requires a herculean lift and one that comes with a lot of pressure. Apathy makes sense if the standard for prose is to change minds. Instead, try to offer an opinion that hasn’t been explored. Here too, we need to understand the existing narratives in the world. In college I considered myself a Libertarian thinker. It’s a philosophy that works well in a society of law and order. No one cares if the otherwise responsible neighbor smoke pot on occasion. Once drugs are legalized and the borders are open however, taking away legal constraints feels irresponsible. I tried to show this in my Libertarians and Drugs article. First, I needed to understand how they argue. What do they think a government’s role should be? How would they organize society? What constitutes morality? I discovered that true libertarians don’t believe in God and think very little of the humans He created.

Conclusion

I don’t know if I changed any minds, but I needed the problem solving that comes with argumentation. Laziness and apathy aren’t the same but they do overlap. Once you’ve cast off the reasons that hold you back from writing, you lose your excuses. I know I do. Inspiration comes from just sitting down and writing. I’ve never had an inspiration fairy drop complete ideas into my head. The best you can expect is to get an idea seed. After that, it’s up to you to work out the kinks. You’ll be glad you did. No more exuses. 

 

Walking in Faith and Counting the Joy

 

I'd Rather Be Jogging: Cardio Reluctance and Spiritual Growth

I’ve been going on prayer walks for the last few weeks. Not every night, but at least a few times per week I circle the neighborhood in prayer. Half of my neighborhood is an industrial park that flows into housing developments from the 30s and 40s. Watching a friend’s podcast on prayer walks got me curious. Walking is great after a meal anyway, I decided while the sun is still high enough in the sky I’d go. Once we hit October it gets too late for after dinner walks. I’m always sad for the colder temps and winter. It’s not the icy weather necessarily, but the loss of light. The early and late light is the best part of summer.

Just Cardio

I’ve struggled this year to maintain my 20 miles per week for jogging. My knees are quite sore, Runner’s Knee it’s called. The opportunity I have is to believe in God’s healing power over my life. I’m eager for a restored body. I’m doing strengthening exercises to force the knee to manage a heavier load. But until it’s healed, I’m finding other ways to do cardio. Walking is less strenuous on the knees, so I do a lot of it. Biking is as well, but I’m less familiar with where to begin. That probably seems daft. “Just climb on the seat and pedal moron!”

 I won’t say I don’t know how to ride a bike, but the last time I owned a bike I was in high school.

Then, it was a mountain bike. It seemed the best of both worlds, street and rough terrain. A lot of my friends from the running club have road bikes. That seemed the best option for me without a specific spot to go ride trails. We do have Turkey Mountain, but I’m more of a street rider anyway. And if a lot of the people I run with own ride road bikes, it makes more sense to follow their lead. Last Saturday I did. Purchased an alloy Cannondale that cost almost $2000. That’s a lot more than I ever expected to spend. But since high school was the last time I bought a bike, the inflation caught me off guard.

Just Pedal 

In my defense it was over 30 years ago. I didn’t need to spend that much. But the price point seemed to be in the middle of what legit bikes go for. No way was I going to spring for a carbon frame and double the price. Especially since I’m not sure how much riding I’m going to do.

During Covid I bought a stationary bike from a guy on Facebook marketplace. A familiar injury forced me to stop running then too. The bike worked well on low and medium speeds but gave an irritating whine whenever I ramped it up and tried to go hard. I had a local repair guy fix it. He put in new ball bearings, but the sound never went away. I finally gave up on it and stuck it in the corner. I mention the ordeal because it’s the last time I was even remotely interested in exercise that wasn’t jogging related. That’s always going to be my first love. But here I am again, looking for an alternative cardio fitness option while my knees recover. I’m in a better spiritual place this time because I’ve grown in faith. The only way to grow in faith is to step out and let God show you His promises in action. It’s frightening at first. We stumble around, unsure if we’re doing it right, looking for answers like a light switch in a dark room.

Just Walk

There’s usually a lot of yelling about the unfairness of it all. Immaturity gets us all at first. But with every trial we take another step toward the voice of God, calling us to keep going. He leads us further into the dark and our apprehension melts away. He gives us the strength to keep going with more faith each time. Eventually we stop questioning the “why’s” and “wherefores” of the situation. The sooner we recognize His control the sooner we let go. The Holy Spirit is called the helper. We are the doer. When we do, He helps.

I’m remembering what the last injury was like that sidelined me for a few months. During that time though I didn’t run at all. Now at least I’m still jogging on Saturdays. I signed up to be a run lead again and I didn’t want to let them down. Should I quit altogether for a few months? Maybe, but for now I’ll stick to Saturdays only. I have some of the same attitudes towards cardio that I had during my plantar fasciitis injury. If I can’t run, I’ll have to fill that void with something similar.

Conclusion

I noticed a guy doing an early jog at the fairgrounds this morning while I drove past on my way to work. That envious feeling gripped me for just a few seconds as I wished I could join him. Early morning runs fill me with such joy that it’s hard to overstate. I don’t mean the entire event is bliss. Really, it’s quite miserable in the heat, but at certain points in the run I feel amazing. Who knew that such a difficult, grueling experience could produce such a feeling of exuberance?

James says it like this, “My brethren, count it all joy when you fall into various trials, knowing that the testing of your faith produces patience. But let patience have its perfect work, that you may be perfect and complete, lacking nothing.” (Chapter 1:2-4)

The kingdom of Cain: A Book Review

 

Cain, Abel and the Literature of Infamous Murders

What is it about the first murder that explains so much about human nature?

Summary

Cain, Abel, and their relationship to the Creator, are the starting point for an exploration on the literature of three historic murders. As a crime writer, Andrew Klavan is perfect for this assignment. It’s part history and part philosophy but reads like a treatise. The history is just the retelling of the infamous murders, while the philosophy is what we find in literature those murders inspired. Klavan takes on both parts but spend more time with the philosophy. He makes a strong case that a world without God is decadent and cruel. The world God made inspires art and beauty and creation; the world of fallen man inspires idolatry, ugliness and murder. Klavan sprinkles some personal testimony throughout the book as well.

 He is Christian Jew who came to Christ as an adult. An intellectual who loved the writings of the Marquis De Sade and Frederick Nietzsche, but recognized the dead end that rejecting God leads to. It’s in the spirit of that separation between light and dark that The Kingdom of Cain: Finding God in the Literature of Darkness begins.

The French Dandy

He examines three historical murders that inspired books and plays, loosely based on them. The first is a French murder by a pair of criminals, Pierre Francois Lacenaire and Victor Avril. They broke into the home of a local con man to steal money and ended up killing both the man and his mother. Hardly any money was found. But Lacenaire was a sharp dresser and an articulate man from an upper-class family. He excused his murderous instincts by blaming society and an unfair life. The murder inspired Fyodor Dostoevsky to write Crime and Punishment about a similar character named Roskalnikov. In the book however, the murderer becomes overwhelmed with guilt over the killing of two innocents. The story shows how a belief in God is essential for moral order, while a lack of believe causes chaos and death.

This contrast between a God’s way and our way is where the tension lies in our hearts. Those who reject a moral path, like Cain, replace His sovereignty with their own. In place of an ordered reality, they create a living hell. Klavan shows how the opposite of murder is creation. God creates us and we create in His image. Or we reject Him and bring death into the world.

Chicago Deviants 

That was the case with the murderous Chicago lovers, Nathan Leopold and Richard Loeb, in the 1920s. Both were disciples of Frederick Nietzsche and wanted to commit the perfect murder. Both were from wealthy families and intellectually gifted. Richard Loeb graduated from college at 17. They assumed their social status and privilege would be enough to get away with murder. They picked up 14-year-old Bobby Franks, a relative of Loeb, and killed him in the back seat. They dumped his body in the woods a few miles from the city, but Loeb accidentally dropped his glasses at the scene. After that, they plead guilty but avoided the death penalty thanks to the celebrity defense attorney Clarence Darrow.

Based on the famous trial, Alfred Hitcock filmed a movie called Rope, in which two gay lovers strangle and kill another to prove their superiority. The point of the movie is that, without a moral order people will create their own version of it. It’s based on the ideas found in Nietzschean philosophy on the idea of Übermensch. An Übermensch is a superhuman with high intellect that breaks away from the stricture moral order and creates another in place of it. The gay college friends in Rope who murder a classmate are steeped in this philosophy. I looked at a couple of reviews of the movie because I’ve never seen it. There is more fascination with the way Hitchcock shot the film to look like one continuous take, instead of about the murder itself. Apparently, Jimmy Stewart is fantastic as always.

Women Torturer

As for the final murder, Klavan summarizes the monster known as Ed Gein from Plainfield, Wisconsin. I won’t go into detail here. It’s as grizzly as it gets and I’d rather not recount his demonic crimes. But it’s worth noting that the movie Psycho was based on him, also the Silence of the Lambs in part was as well. The details of his heinous acts are mercifully short in the book. But detestable people like Gein can still serve to show us how depraved humanity can be.

Klavan isn’t interested in the murders themselves, but in how they’re used in culture to make points or show a moral universe. The art that comes from them is a warning to us about sexual depravity or vanity or selfish ambition. Those idols that take the place of God in our lives. The book also tries to show how human phycology, especially the Fruedian variety, is being used to explain devient behavior from the murderers. There is no better example of this than from the Leopold and Loeb trial. Clarrence Darrow argued that the boys shouldn't be given the death penalty because "forces beyond their control" made them do it. 

I think the author's point is that with rejection of Christian morality comes a lack of accountability for one's actions. Human phycology, rooted in evolutionary theory, is used all the time in court room settings. It's a way of explaining crime from a non Christian worldview and providing an excuse. 

Conclusion

A lot of the criticism I read about this book, didn’t think Klavan made the case that Christians can benefit from art that is salacious. I didn’t get the feeling from reading this book, that he thinks all paintings or movies or books are artistic. Some are trash and he’d probably agree. But when done right, artistic expression that illuminates good and beautiful things is a reflection of the Creator.  

The best parts of the book, in either case, is the author’s own history with the philosophy of Nietzsche and de Sade. His transformation from a lost soul to a new creation is what gives his words deep meaning. Andrew Klavan came to Christ because of a hole in atheism’s argument about a world without God. De Sade at least, according to the author, was the only consistent atheist. He reasoned that the only moral imperative was to increase one’s own power at the expense of others. That kind of thinking leads to what you get with the Marquis, imprisoned for his deviant sexual crimes. It also leads to leaders like Hitler and Pol Pot.

None of is immune from idolatrous thinking. Cain and Abel had the same parents, the same teaching and the same opportunity. One submitted to God’s way and the other rejected Him. Jealousy put Cain on a path toward death. Andrew Klavan's book is a fascinating read and I would recommend it to anyone. It’s a short book that will make you want to buy more of his writing.

Will the Iran War Be A Suez Moment for Trump?

 

Is the Iran War Just Begining, Or Are Is There A Plan To Finish?

Is the Iran war a Suez Crisis moment for the United States? Are we stretched thin with another war that leaves us with a less capable military and little influence on the global stage?

I heard Mark Steyn mention Suez in comparison to this current war. Just so you know the comparison isn’t mine. I had to fire up the google machine to make sure I had the facts straight. I remembered that the Suez Crisis had something to do with an upstart Egypt putting the British military in their place. Most historians mark this period as the point the British stopped being a regional threat. Egypt nationalized the Suez Canal in 1956. France and Britain feared a loss of trade routes and enlisted Israel in the attack. Technically the alliance won the war but lost diplomatically. The United States told them all to get out because it feared the war might bring in the Soviet Union.

Suez Crisis Aftermath

Great Britain and France acquiesced and let Egypt control the canal. It proved that neither European country could make war without permission from the Yankees. The comparison to Iran (I suppose) is in the possible disaster of this current war. The spending is the least of it. America’s reputation is at stake. From NATO to the Middle East, we don’t have the muscle anymore to enlist allies to the cause. We’re in a military alliance with the Europeans. Spain didn’t allow Trump to use their air base to launch attacks and refuel jets. France and Britain sent a few ships, but with the proviso that they be “defensive” only.

Part of this is a result of Trump just sending ships to the region without asking for help. The other part is that Europe’s militaries are a fraction of what they were in total troops and materiel. But then again, our military strength is also degraded because of the Ukraine war. We’ve sold valuable war materials to Zelensky and it’s cutting into our ability to prosecute the one in Iran. NATO can’t possibly look the same going forward. Muslim immigrants from north Africa and the Middle East will take over the native populations of Europe’s countries in the next 50 years. That presents a completely different future on cooperation with the US.

NATO’s Future

If our allies on the continent are disappearing, that leaves fickle ones like Saudi Arabia and Qatar in the Middle East. The Saudi’s have a very modern air force and almost all of its jets sit on the runway while the US puts aircraft carriers in the Strait of Hormuz and does all the work. But both Saudi Arabia and Israel benefit from having Iran decimated. Only Israel is bombing sites and providing intel while the incredibly wealthy House of Saud does nothing. There are some reports that they’ve helped unofficially. Keep in mind, these are our best allies.

Iran is winning. They’re winning because inflicting small cuts and pretending to be interested in negotiation with Trump and Vance. Once the talks are set up, some IRGC crew in the Strait will fire on a US vessel. Or they’ll send drones to attack the embassy of an American ally like UAE or Bahrain. They’re winning this war asymmetrically, something they always do. It’s not because they’re such brilliant tacticians either. They’re smart sure, but mostly it’s for a simpler reason. They live there. You tend to defend the place you live more vigorously than that one you try to conquer.

And now they’ve got more help.

The Expanding War

They’re a state sponsor of terrorism around the world and now they’ve managed to get the Houthis involved. Mostly they attack Israel with drones (from Yemen) and disrupt commercial shipping. If it’s not obvious by now, this war is expanding. We need to get out of this now or begin yet another conflict that lasts decades. From the beginning, this war plan felt like it was drawn up on a cocktail napkin by a couple of staffers after a boozy night a DC bar. They never had a good answer for how to control the Hormuz Strait and the war aims have shifted from no nukes to regime change. Eventually they skuttled the regime change stuff and settled for controlling the Strait.

 Isreal might to blame for a lot of the intelligence errors, mostly thinking that the regime would fall with a few well-placed missiles. But did we have to go along with it? Of course not. You can’t blame Netanyahu for wanting to drag the United States into this. The Iranian regime was on life support after their economy cratered. It looked like it might fall. They retaliated against their own people and brutally crushed the dissent. We went into this hoping to nudge the Iranian people to rise up by bombing a few key areas and killing a few leaders.

Despite what the administration said about not allowing them to get a nuke, I think it was more about destabilizing the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Core) and trying to get a friendlier neighbor in Tehran. We destroyed Fordow last year. Yet somehow we need to go in again? I don’t buy it. Trump was the one president that wouldn’t fall for this endless war business. We were sure of it. Yet here we are again. I’m convinced that a lot of these conflicts we get into don’t have an end goal in mind.

The point is to dole out money and contracts to well placed companies. The longer it goes, the more money they make. Like the cement company with an interstate road contract, always finding more places to build roads whether we need them or not. It’s called a racket. I’m not accusing Trump of running a racket, but it feels like it’s baked in to the intelligence he gets.

Good News?

Jim Rickards was on War Room yesterday with an idea on how to get out of this. I’m not sure if he was just passing on information he’d heard from the intelligence community, but here it goes. The Defense Department deployed the Dark Eagle hypersonic missile which has a range of supposedly (1725 miles). We are able to hit Tehran from Diego Garcia with a cruising speed of Mach 5. It brings such destructive energy that destroys everything. The idea would be, hit the nuclear site in Tehran with the missile and cover your ears. The entire site would be dust. At least then the war’s stated objective would be accomplished, and we could turn the ships around. It might be the best thing to hope for. Winning looks like leaving. The sooner the better.

I’ve been reluctant to write about Trump and Iran because I love the president and want the administration to succeed. It doesn’t help to dump extra criticism on the pile when things are going poorly. But this whole effort was never going to work the way it was sold.  Foreign policy always overtakes whatever genuine problems we have within our borders. By foreign policy I mean war not diplomacy. This won’t be a Suez Crisis moment if we get out now.

Conclusion

I’ve never been a “let those foreigners fend for themselves” type of guy. But I’m nearly there. Trump’s attempt to expose institutional corruption gets derailed with every head fake from Iran on negotiation. It’s time to focus on corruption at home, whether in our election system or in the state billing fraud that’s been shown in Minnesota and California. Corruption explains nearly everything from the broken immigration system to human trafficking. It’s time for a reckoning. Let’s get our own house in order.

 

 

Putting in Work Tulsa Style

 

Jogging Through Tulsa and Acclimating to the Heat

I ran through town yesterday, the same as I have on countless Saturdays before. The stifling July heat broke me on a few occasions. I planned to do 10 miles. That’s a full day in the summer. I wasn’t worried that stopping and resting would equate to poor fitness levels. In the past, not being able to handle the heat would have made me think I hadn't run enough to cope. Nutrition is a tricky thing to get right anyway. Today I’m more focused on enjoying the run and taking my wins where I can. I started off feeling great. Ate a piece of toast and a handful of trail mix. Took a GU gel about 3 miles in. I knew the heat would eventually get me. I’m learning that hitting the wall and stopping for a few minutes doesn’t have to mean the day is over. You might have to muscle through a few more miles with sheer grit, but you've got more in the tank. Keep pushing.

The summer training is extremely valuable for those long distances that come later. Hills and heat make tough runners.

My knees were quite sore though. The physical therapist I’ve been visiting once per month said tendinitis is just frustrating to get over. It hangs around like an unwanted relative with nowhere else to stay. Thankfully it doesn’t keep me from jogging. The pain has made me a little surly though. My patience for most things has become very thin. From getting out of bed to answering calls from the general public at work, I’ve had to stop and think instead of reacting with a rude comment. I’ll have to work on that. Besides the irritation of it, I do feel myself getting stronger. Sunday’s, I do leg work at the gym and I can feel the knees getting stronger, if only a little. Squats and lunges are still not a possibility. Maybe in future I can bring back some of the lifts I used to do. For now, it’s too much pressure on sensitive knees.

Another difference between this year and last, is the reduced running schedule I’m currently on. A normal week for me is 20 miles spread across 4 days, Saturday being the longest day. During the end of my training cycle with Runner’s World, it’s more like 30 miles per week. This summer I’ve done roughly 15 miles per week with Saturday being the longest day. Those are rough weekly estimates, but I’m sure I haven’t jogged past 15 miles. The thinking is that if I give myself one extra day to rest the knees, I’ll be that much stronger. 

But there is always the chance that I’m getting softer because of the extra rest. I walked gingerly up the steps to my front door yesterday after my run and laid down on a towel for 10 minutes or so. Then I took a shower, ate some fruit and fell into a hard sleep for an hour. Maybe I need to log a few more hours in the sun.

On Friday I attended the monthly men’s breakfast through my church. I talked to Brett Wilson, a guy that used to bring his kids into my store for their football helmets and pads. He’s a triathlete. We talked nutrition and hydration. I imagine he must be around my age but I didn’t ask. He runs faster than me I’m sure. I saw him at a half marathon on Saint Patrick’s Day a few years ago. Not sure what time he ended up with, but he was moving quick. I’d say around 8:45 per mile. He explained to me that he loved to push himself, endurance sports are the perfect fit. I understood his passion and even agreed with it to some extent. I told him about my energy issues on marathons. He said he’d send me some info that helped him. I think my problem is food and he agreed. The lack of energy is probably a lack of food. Or at least, a lack of the right food. I’ll try to eat more before a morning run this time.

A new jogging cycle starts on Saturday and I’m leading the 10-11 minute pace group and I’m interested in new trends. Maybe this year, the new me is someone who eats more before the run and even during it. For people who don’t usually eat breakfast (me) this is a lot to ask. It means choking down meals when your body doesn’t want it. I started this to some degree last year but didn’t notice any improvement in energy. Like everything with jogging though, you have to try a new routine multiple times and measure the results. That might be my next post.