Taiwan's Importance

The sanctions boom is about to drop on the North Koreans for their reckless missile tests and belligerent behavior. Sanctions work for the short term but what to do long term?

North Korea has been testing missiles about every month and ramping up the danger for South Korea and anyone within range. Experts think China holds the key to stopping their obnoxiousness since they are the only ally the North has. How much of an ally are they really? Would the childish dictator Kim Jong un even listen to proposals from Beijing about not launching?

China could cut off whatever rations and food they sell to them but this regime survives on very little help as it is. The country has seen a few famines over the last decade and the Kim regime is unmoved by his peoples’ own suffering and death. What specifically could China do and what does the U.S want? It would request U.N. inspectors to pour in and verify the nuclear program is defunct if such a deal could be made. I don’t see Xi Jinping agreeing to have inspectors come anywhere near his hemisphere. It is also highly unlikely that Kim Jong Un would feel pressure to surrender his nuclear program. No such leverage exists to make him give up that much.

I am fearful that Taiwan could be used as a bargaining chip with Beijing. The only reason Taipei maintains any independence from the Mainland is the United States. The current diplomatic model is the ‘One China’ framework that recognizes China as one group ethnically, but holds that there are two systems. State Department types use the word ‘systems’ because saying ‘country’ or ‘government’ implies a separate sovereign nation exists. China claims Taiwan as part of its country, just another territory or province under rebellion. This creates all manner of craziness at world bodies like the World Trade Organization where Taiwan doesn’t have a representative. They can’t fly a flag or have ambassadors. They get no recognition as a ‘nation’ from anyone. China won’t allow it.

From Beijing’s position it would be like Nebraska sending a basketball team to represent itself in the Olympics.

Taiwan could lose the fragile bit of autonomy they enjoy if the United States cancels the weapons pact. Taipei buys anti-aircraft artillery and fighter jets from us thanks to an agreement between countries signed in 1979. Or if any American organizations or government intermediaries (like the American Institute in Taiwan) see immediate changes in leadership, a diplomatic shift is coming.  

Diplomacy is messy and requires careful deliberate moves where trades-offs are common. Leaders work toward a main goal and trade down or up depending on their position. During the Yalta Conference after Germany surrendered Russian agreed to enter the war against Japan in exchange for concessions on Poland and other European borders. They were given a slice of Berlin to manage as well, something the other Allies probably resented.

America sells arms to Taiwan and trades extensively with the island. A big part of the boom in affordable electronics during the eighties centered on manufacturing plants dotted around that country. They are important strategically as well as economically. Even if they weren’t useful in a utilitarian sense, America needs to defend its allies if it wants future partners and credibility. It might seem purely sentimental to strict “Realists” but isolating friends in order to get a better deal is bad politics. Those acts resonate with governments around the world and disrupt future attempts to enlist them to our cause. It was a mistake to ignore Ukraine when they needed weapons against a belligerent Russia in 2014. We don’t need to send troops into every corner of the globe but we should at least honor commitments and be aggressive diplomatically.

The real question on North Korea is what can they be made to do? Their dictator is crazy enough to launch missiles and short range artillery at the South at the slightest provocation. Maybe he isn’t really that crazy, but that has to be the calculation when dealing with any nuclear armed tyrant.. The fallout in South Korea would be devastating even if they could intercept most of the barrage. I’ve always suspected the Communist government in Beijing relishes their influence (however much exists) over the North Koreans.

They don’t have a lot of cards to play on a global stage but being the only broker the North Koreans will listen to is an obvious advantage. 

The Chinese want Taiwan back without US meddling. The US wants North Korea's nuclear program shut down. Time to negotiate.  

Kim Jong un needs to go at a price. His very existence is a threat to free people. But don’t trade away influence or sovereignty in Taiwan; find another way.