Working Out My Differences: Writing vs Account Management

 It’s New Year’s Eve and I’m working. That’s not too bad though. I’m off from Midwest Sporting Goods, my main employer. Now that the retail days are kind of sparse I’m more of an office worker than a customer service guy. I’ve got a few regular accounts as well. So I’m an account rep but and a guy who handles retail customers. Also I pull orders throughout the day. Most are small and take less than 15 minutes, but it forms a portion of my daily routine.

So I’m an account rep who handles retail sales and regularly pulls orders for the sales team. That’s when I’m not buying letter jackets for high schools. I can’t tell if the letter jackets are their own account or just an extension of retail sales. I’d say I’m an account rep who does retail sales and letter jackets while helping the sales team with their orders.

Is that all I do? Well no actually. I drive the delivery van on holidays. For the sake of descriptive ease, I’m calling every off day for Joe (our regular driver) a holiday.

I’m an occasional delivery driving account rep who handles retail sales and letter jackets when he isn’t helping the sales team by pulling orders. Got it?

If I’m not doing any of those tasks at my main job than what am I doing?

I’m writing, editing and researching.

I listed all those previous jobs to sound busy, including a lot of descriptions will do that. All of those jobs from Midwest revolve around the same skill set, customer service. To be specific, customer service and support tied to sporting goods. After 13 years I understand the inner workings of team sports, uniforms and equipment sales like an expert.

But despite my expanding role, it’s all related to the service and sales of sporting goods. Writing is a different skill. I might say it’s a more creative muscle than I work at Midwest. That’s not a slight, it’s just a reality. Writing is more demanding from a creative perspective. I’m getting used to assignments from editors again.

Not since college have I had to correct my work usage, or rewrite something because it was “vague”. No one likes to correct their work but we need it. You can’t really improve or write to a standard without a good editor who knows which wound to pour the salt into. We get exposed when we have to provide documentation or tie a general idea to a specific one. I’ve been writing a marketing piece that’s going to be around 3000 words before it’s all done.

Marketing isn’t the most difficult thing to write, but without some basic knowledge or the terms you’ll sound lost quickly. Part of the creative process for me is being detailed with what little I know. That’s tough because it means you’re learning it for the first time while also teaching it to others. Thankfully I’ve got some direction from the editor. But like other articles I’ve done, when in doubt--do more research. It’s a different kind of problem solving that I’m rediscovering.

How is writing primarily different from sales? Well no one hears me cuss at the screen when I struggle with subject/verb agreement. That would be awkward in an office environment, although not too out of place among the former athletes and coaches I work with. Account management demands commitment to following up on behalf of your customers. Answering email, calling vendors, quoting and checking stock all compose the daily currency of customer service work.

There is a procedural aspect to it. Writing is procedural as well but only with experience. Blogging about your weekend in Branson is quite different than writing a safety flow chart for a glass manufacturing plant. One is light hearted and allows time to stretch an anecdote while lacing it with humor and romance; the other makes you want to cut yourself…with glass.

Anyone who knows the subject and writes enough can develop a procedure for either one. Writing is less procedural at first though. But if account management is a paint by numbers sketch that hangs on the fridge with a ‘win-win situation’ magnet, than writing is abstract art. It also includes a wide spectrum, from unintelligible to C.S Lewis. Account management requires showing up to work and calling people back.

If it sounds like I’m ripping customer service jobs it’s only because I’ve been in some form of it for the last 20 years. Naturally it’s easier to me. If people can’t do retail or manage accounts it’s because they don’t want to, not because they can’t. It’s not difficult but it demands you put your ego aside (on occasion) and take a verbal beating. It’s awful I know.

None of us should focus too hard on one skill. It’s good for the brain to solve problems in a different way. I stay mostly on the left side of the brain (logic, reason) but understand the need for right brain creativity. Even if you struggle to define your position at work, problem solving crosses all boundaries.

 

What I Learned From Detasseling Corn

 

 I reminisced with my cousin the other day about the misery of late July in the corn fields. We both made our back to school shopping money in the summers detasseling corn.

 Illinois is corn country so if you’re a little confused by the term “detasseling” let me explain. The top part of the corn stalk is the pollinator. In order to get the best yields, you rip out the tassel (the top part) and throw it on the ground. That way it won’t pollinate the field. Farmers choose to have one variety that pollinates the rest. It’s used every 5^th row and its tassels are left in place so it can do its work. This is primarily for food corn and not feed corn.

Seed companies have machines that go through the fields and pull most of the tassels. They can only get some 70 to 80% of them though, the rest are left for high school kids from July to August. With all things agriculture the weather dictates the perfect time. My brother and I worked with a group from Winnebago High School. One of the teachers there gathered kids for a few weeks every summer and sorted us into crews.

His crew leaders were usually experienced kids that followed us rookies through the long rows and pulled the ones we had missed. I liked the teacher, he was approachable and funny. He was also paid to get a job done so it was all business when we started.

The job was simply miserable, there is no way better way to categorize it. It’s a great way to earn money for kids with no other options though.

 It’s unlikely kids from 13 to 15 have had any job before. The ones who grew up in the country, on a farm knew how to work hard. But they weren’t going to be detasseling corn. They had other work to do. Most of us never had to get up at 4:30 in the morning to be at the bus pick up by 5:00 and be on by 5:30. It was summer after all. Kids sleep till 10:00 in the summer. The hardest part of the day was when my mom woke us up. I nearly cried every morning at the thought of what was coming.

We packed lunches (a welcome break) and took ponchos to wick the morning dew off the corn stalks that soaked your clothing without it. Mud caked on your shoes making every pass down the row heavier than the last. It’s often cold in the morning too, between 50 and 60 even in mid summer. But it warms up quick. After just a few hours of morning sun the wetness that turned your sweatshirt sleeves into a dripping sponge was already drying up. The July heat baked your skin and you regretted your heavier clothes.

I never seemed to get the clothing right.

Sunglasses are a must. The goggle type with the side guards are best. The eye level corn leafs do their best to gouge you as you walk by. This is in addition to stabbing your neck and scaring your face. You feel it more in the shower after a long day of cold and heat abuse to your skin. It’s summer too so sunburn is a constant. Every day I wanted to quit. It’s not impossible work but it’s tough and soft kids get weeded out quickly.

We had a commitment of two weeks. There was usually more work after that but only the guys who made a good impression were asked to stay. My brother and I were both asked to work a couple of extra days. I was proud of that but I don’t remember if we actually did. We weren’t allowed to skip regular days. My mom wouldn’t hear of it. It’s the only reason we made it through without quitting.

There is something magical that happens when you set your mind to a thing. You decide to do a chore or go to a place or make a call, the struggle gets easier. Much of the struggle is with the indecision, the vacillating over whether or not to go forward. Decisions make for smoother execution when you don’t give yourself an out. My mom made the first decision for my brother and I, “Go”. We had to make the second, “Finish”. But we pushed on with the knowledge that we were working at least the full two weeks. It made the rest easier.

Once you flip that switch in your brain from indecision to decision, everything gets easier. Parents help their kids immensely when they take away options that provide an out for them. Why? Because kids take the easy path every time. Discipline in later life comes from discipline in early life. I’m happy for the tough days, the cold morning and hot afternoons, the sunburn and chaffed skin, the sore legs and muddy, heavy shoes.

Find a job for your kids that makes them want to quit, and force them to finish. They’ll learn to get over the “I quit” instinct and set their minds to it.

Following Steyn: Writing and Radio

 

I’ve followed Mark Steyn for the last few years. I became aware of him in the early 2000s, not sure exactly when.

 First book I read was his America Alone: The End of the World as We Know It which juxtaposed Western decadence and Eastern advancement. More importantly it introduced everyone to the critical importance of demography. There was a famous saying in the book ‘demography is destiny’ or something to that effect. His point was that America is the last Western power that really believes in itself. The Europeans, Japanese and most of the democratic powers are experiencing decline. As a result they are importing immigrants from North Africa and other Muslim majority countries.

They don’t share the same traditions. Sharia law guides their lives and they ignore the laws of the countries they live in. It creates conflict like the explosion of terrorism across the continent. He’s written several books since but to me, it’s his most important book.

He isn’t just a great writer. He never loses track of first principles in his opinions, whether in print or on the radio. Most Americans probably became familiar with him through his hosting gigs on the Rush Limbaugh show. The last year of Rush’s life 2020 (the cancer treatment year) say Mark fill in for the great man all too frequently.

He became the only guest host I looked forward to. Nothing against Todd Herman or any of the others who were asked to step up but Mark is smarter and more entertaining. He got a little grumpy toward the end though. He’d complain on the air about the lack of notice to appear and how it was starting to affect his other work. It wasn’t disrespectful but it became a common refrain. The trade-off for working without notice on the EIB network is exposure. But getting Mark to talk about his website and solicit new members wasn’t easy. He probably thinks asking makes him sound like a shill.

I jumped on his website the other day to catch up on his articles. He does a little less of the daily opinion and more of the radio and TV stuff now. I prefer his writing to his audio shows and his GB News spots. The last one is a new development. He always used to appear on Fox with Tucker or the Fox & Friends morning show. I listened to him explain that he was tired of being the comic relief guy in a serious age. I understand his reluctance to keep doing the same shtick, but he’s quite funny.

He wasn’t going to last there without getting his own show anyway. I think that’s what he has been aiming for. All those fill-ins for Tucker and chances to turn phrases and make hilarious points weren’t for nothing. He’ll be remembered in some circles as the author of Thoroughly Modern Milley, the mock phrase directed at General Milley after his disastrous congressional appearance. In it he told the committee that he hoped to “understand white rage”.

  I think his personal Mark Steyn Show that filmed in New Hampshire, is done. After a lawsuit cut the legs out from under it. The funding for the TV show was from CRTV, a conservative channel that owns other properties including Mark Levin’s show. I tried watching it but the segments were long and designed to show off his wit and knowledge of global affairs. It needed a producer who knew how to speed things along.

There is a bit of that in his newest GB show as well. He likes lengthy discourses and clever retorts. It’s not ideal for quick soundbites television demands. Not that he can’t change and become a great host, but he looks ill at ease to me. I do hope it goes well for him but I’m disappointed that his writing output is at half speed. There are only so many hours in a day after all.

He’s always been a brilliant writer of the arts too. That’s not my interest so I usually just scan. His still does the song of the week, every week. To me it’s always too long. I imagine it’s like reading the sports page without an interest in sports. He has a famous line he always dryly mentions during his reader questions and answers. That membership isn’t for everyone. I like that touch of honesty for his listeners. It’s like he knows his interests diverge significantly from his audiences.

I’ve never been a member and I don’t believe I ever will. But as a writer on global affairs there is no one better. Even if he is an eternal pessimist and something of a diva, his explanations of geopolitical realities have stuck with me for years.   

Saturday in Fayetteville

I got to work on Saturday this week. The University of Arkansas needed their baseball order and it had to go, too many others scheduled Monday through Friday. They offered me overtime so I jumped at the chance. Besides, deliveries are easy. Fayetteville is just less than 2 hours from Tulsa so most of my time would be spend behind the windshield listening to a podcast. I’m more or less the back up delivery option since I run the retail store.

On Friday night the warehouse crew loaded up the van with $30,000 worth of baseballs. That’s a lot of balls but it doesn’t take up as much room as you’d think. They seem to go up in price every year and these online warehouses move thousands every day. I’m always surprised when we are able to sell large orders of baseballs. The margins are thinner than the cardboard boxes they’re packed in. Whatever profit we make, the big stores like” Baseball Express” are certainly taking less. It’s tough to compete with that.

After drifting around campus looking for the stadium I finally called the equipment manager for directions. We unloaded in about 20 minutes and he offered to show me around. The facility is new. They’ve only been using it for a few months. Even the floor had an shiny, unused feel to it. This is probably the first baseball order the dock had seen. He didn’t have a place for it yet so we stacked them in a corner. Only the student training center is new though. The field and storage facilities, along the left field dugout, have been there since the middle 90s.

This new facility is a recruiters dream. I think the equipment manager, Mark, said 28 million. The boosters covered nearly all of it. He took me to a massive weight room with a wide view of the field. The right side of the room overlooked the pitching and hitting center. Each stall is equipped with high speed cameras that record every motion. Players can then sit in the video rooms and watch their performance while a coach recommends drills and techniques. We walked through the theater size locker room to the two Olympic size hot tubs. Behind that is the exam room for trainers to work tired arms, sore calves, pulled back muscles, pinched nerves and whatever ails a 20 year old prospect hoping to get on a professional club.

Most colleges have facilities like this but the scale and the quality of the University of Arkansas is a real separator. Top high school stand outs from around the country will decide to go there based on the upscale offerings. That’s the point. The recruiting game is more competitive than what happens on the diamond. It’s expensive too. I can’t blame boosters for pushing money into their Alma Mater’s baseball or football teams. Everyone wants to root for a winner; but what does spending millions of dollars on college sports really do for you?

Is getting good seats for home games worth it? I’m conspiratorial I admit, but for at least some of the high spenders there has to be more. For a guy who gives a 10K to the program and buys season tickets, the purchase makes sense. For families that donate millions of dollars it doesn’t. If there is one thing I know about rich people it’s this, they don’t waste money. What might seem frivolous (or a generous gift) is actually a payment for something else. Tax breaks come to mind. I don’t know exactly what kind of breaks they get but money given to a (don’t laugh) educational institution comes with certain breaks.

 I know they can’t deduct their seat purchases anymore. The Trump tax plan eliminated that in 2017.

Regular donations to athletic programs are still (I think) 100% deductible. Wouldn’t you rather control where your money went than have to pay it to the federal government? The booster clubs are using the money for sports of course, but it’s also being used for non-school related things. I don’t mean to pay players either. That happens but it’s risky and nearly always backfires costing the college penalties from the NCAA and hurting their recruiting efforts long term.

Best guess, these networks of well heeled donors are just ‘good ol boy’ clubs from years past. I’m not suggesting they don’t include women but they do help each other out and are probably too involved in the decisions of the team, and school. What it really amounts to is a private club that owns a sports team with university logos and signage on the walls.

But actually it’s better than that. They don’t have the nagging problems of running a for profit club. You don’t need to buy land or pay any of the city fees like taxes and whatever other zoning costs are involved. No need to pay salaries since these are student athletes and not contractors. And probably the biggest one of all, no need to generate profit. No, this isn’t a rant about how college kids should be paid. I don’t believe that.

I’m just uncomfortable with how important sports have become in our society. I’d like to see amateur sports rise and college sports fall. It would solve the issue of athletes getting paid for their talent at least.

But I do love baseball and I can understand the appeal of season tickets behind the plate. If nothing else it’s a yearly expense that pays you back if you run a business. Entertain the clients, take the kids, use them as gifts and currency.

I enjoyed the visit. Maybe I’ll get to catch a game this season. Or better yet, I’ll get to deliver something to the football team and get a tour of those facilities while on the clock. I think I like that idea better.   

Husbandry in the City: Sowing and Reaping

 

Husbandry isn’t a word we hear too much today. I caught it on a TV show the other day and wondered when the last time was I’d heard it, or read it. I had to scan the interwebs to make sure I got the exact definition right. Animals and agriculture come to mind, but that’s just one part of it. Animal Husbandry is raising livestock and/or breeding animals and everything that comes with the care of animals.

The second part of it, the more general part is what interested me, care of resources in the earth. If you own a vineyard you practice husbandry by growing and harvesting the crop. It works for family gardens and raising pitbulls too.  

I’ve noticed that kids raised on farms and ranches grow up quicker than those of us city folks. It’s not an accident. Responsibility grows us up like nothing else. Being forced to finish chores before 6 a.m. on a farm is a lot different than doing chores in a suburban bungalow. Animals die if you forget to feed them and land grows wild if you neglect it. What happens if you forget to make your bed or wash dishes? Just do them later, or wait till tomorrow. The consequences of neglect are high on a farm.

The closest many of us will come to being responsible for the land and resources is with our yards. Mowing, raking, pulling weeds and planting spring flowers creates in us a sense of husbandry for our little patch of earth. Sure Ok, the stakes are a bit lower but the husbandry idea is there. Land ownership encourages care for land, but more than that it creates in us a sense of stewardship for our resources. Stewardship leads to pride when we begin something and watch it grow.

This is true for learned skills as well like learning a foreign language or starting a business.

We don’t just watch it grow of course, we nurture and protect and feed our gardens and lawns. We watch the weather for rain, wind and snow. We prune out weeds and keep birds from eating the new growth. Often we lose plants to heat or erosion. Some years the rain is too frequent, drowning our young produce and turning it to mush. Our best efforts aren’t always enough.  

I’m probably stretching the meaning of the word “husbandry” a bit by scaling it down. The tendency today is to scale everything up. Most farms are corporate and highly efficient, tuned in to soil quality and water level.

 But it’s the meaning of the word that interests me. Husbandry is essentially sowing and reaping; in the literal sense as well as in a metaphorical one. It’s the process of starting and finishing while growing in the process. Our projects grow through our efforts and inputs, but our lives are also subject to the same pattern. Our Heavenly Father plants us and gives us a job, the same is true for carrots or sheep or cattle. Grow and multiply.

The principles of God’s Kingdom are found in planting and harvesting. It’s the actual currency with use to thrive. The cyclical nature ensures, it functions even when we are unaware of it. Care is rewarded, neglect is punished.

I started raking leaves just yesterday. I won’t pretend I love to rake leaves and bag them up all afternoon. It actually takes a few days but I’ve got it down to a science. Rake and bag the first half, blow and mulch the second half. As far as chores go I kind of enjoy it. It gives me a chance to listen to a long form podcasts while working. I don’t get the chance too often.

Being outdoors for more than a few hours forces me to notice how much cleaner my yard is since I first moved in 12 years ago. The back fence line was a jungle of neglected weeds and invasive grasses that the city had to come out and cut back. It was so tall it started to interfere with the overhead electric lines that cross my property. I didn’t attack it all at once. It took years of cutting, pulling and digging roots to have a clean space.

I’ve added a few landscaped areas since, had 2 trees cut down and replanted more grass seed than I care to think about. Much of it’s been a failure. This soil requires a lot of water and I’m too cheap (and lazy) to bother with it every year. But overall the place is an improvement. Husbandry provides a sense of satisfaction that you can’t get any other way. I’ve paid for others to work on my property, but it doesn’t feel the same.

The reason is simple, sowing and reaping. Our projects grow as we do. You want to understand husbandry, get a garden or a lawn and grow with it. Watch it change you. It's the way God intended.  

“For he who sows to the flesh will of the flesh reap corruption, but he who sows to the Spirit will of the Spirit reap everlasting life.” (Galatians 6:8) NKJV

Old and New Testament: God's Plan is the Same

 

I don’t think I cracked open much of the Old Testament, except for Psalm and Proverbs, as a kid.

Now I understand how important it is to see the nature of God through his people in the context of both covenants. The Bible is a story with God as the central figure. He creates and builds and causes us to flourish. We in turn get to tell of His character and redemption; we are fruitful and we multiply.

There is a tendency to see the Bible as two separate stories with different histories and different ideas about human nature. I had a professor once describe the Old Testament attitude of God versus the New Testament attitude. Clearly he thought the God of the Hebrews was a vindictive, petulant deity who was never satisfied. The New Testament God (in the person of Jesus) is a lovely creature, gentle and warm who goes around doing good.

 Even if I can understand the confusion, reading the Bible clears up the fogginess as some discover much later in life.

Admittedly I’ve learned much about the Old Testament from ministers who took time to explain how the covenant worked. God make a covenant with Abraham and much of the symbolic sacrifices point to a savior. Not to mention the prophecies that point to specific details in the life of Christ. I needed someone to show me, but hearing it caused me to seek out more detail about the Old Testament. The Law of Moses in Deuteronomy describes the Lord’s purpose for His children. None of it is frivolous or impossible. All serves a larger purpose for righteousness or good health or good order.

Prophesies about Jesus are the thread that connects Abraham’s promise to the savior of the world. 

The Jews didn’t see it then and many still don’t, but it’s human nature to not get the big picture. We don’t often see what God is doing because our perception is limited by culture and personal ability, even geopolitical realities of the day. I have to stop myself sometimes and ask “What are You doing in my life that I’m unaware of Lord?” But in order to ask that, we need to remove as much of our preconceived notions about life as we can. That’s tough to do.

The Jews thought the savior would be a political figure who would cast off the Roman government and return Israel to its greatness. In the same way we in America are hoping for the same thing, a return to political greatness and relative stability. I don’t think America’s best days are behind her, but we won’t recover anything without acknowledging the Creator of order and commerce and justice. That’s where we’ve missed it and I don’t think that’s even controversial anymore. But maybe God wants to do something different and better for the world than just making America the jewel in the crown (it has been no doubt).

America makes the world safe for democracy even now.

But maybe God wants a flourishing of a different kind. Instead of markets for commerce how about markets for ideas? Instead of another real estate bonanza where Target, Home Depot and Starbucks get to gobble up more space, how about one where locals trade goods and services? Maybe we’ll see a return to doctors doing house calls and caring for patients instead of writing scripts for every ailment.

I think we’ve all traded a little personal responsibility for comfort in some way.

I’m totally spit balling here. No one hates department stores or restaurants or hardware chains. It’s a model that’s worked well for a long time but so much is corrupted that’s it’s time for something new. Greed skews our perception about what money is for. Nearly all of the big companies in the world are owned by 2 or 3 conglomerates. We live with the illusion of choice. Those conglomerates buy each other’s stock and have a real interest in keeping the whole thing afloat. The dollar gets more worthless with every QE (Quantitative Easing) buying program the Fed goes on.

We will break free but not without some financial pain. Slave labor makes the products that fund corrupt governments and corrupt business leaders. I’m not just talking about China but everywhere. They’re in league together and they despise the God of the universe. You can tell by the music, movies and literature they promote. There is countless suffering that we aren’t even aware of because it’s hidden. I believe exposure is coming on a massive scale and it’s going to reset a lot of our priorities, both individual priorities and national ones.

The most important part of life right now is to humble ourselves and let God realign our priorities. We can’t know exactly how the next few years will unfold but I believe God’s people will become the leaders for a new age. It’s easy to see how globalism has failed and assume the opposite kind of reality will dominate the next few years. Instead of the flatness of globalism we get the peaks and valleys of small businesses—a return to a simpler time where producers lived next to consumers. But maybe not, God gave people creativity to design and build and flourish.

We might see a hybrid model of development that reduces barriers like globalism but retains a unique local character. Again, just spit balling.

What do the Old and New testaments and the story of Christ have to do with all of this trade talk? The common thread is God’s plan for humans remains to be fruitful and multiply. That hasn’t changed because when we follow that instruction we spread out the knowledge of the Creator like a fragrance and it goes on forever. God made a way to redemption for all time. Adam’s fall set in motion the coming of Christ to ‘fix’ that brokenness and restore us to the Creator.

The New Plan for Taiwan

 

An effort is underway to shore up support for the island Republic of Taiwan. The democratic West wants to make China realize that an attack would be costly. How much it would cost is up for debate.

 Last month some senators from France made an official visit, this month the European parliament did the same. Just yesterday some Republican lawmakers make the trip as well. They took a military aircraft from Manilla. In response to this 'disrespect' the Chinese navy sent a readiness patrol near the straits. It’s a show of force, an overwhelming demonstration of might.

China's been doing this with some regularity since 2020. In October of this year they flew 196 sorties around the island, a significant uptick since Trump left office. They flew a total of 320 sorties for all of last year. Military experts call this tactic “gray zone”. By flying close enough to Taiwan’s airspace but not engaging, they are playing a psychological game.

When this happens every day you either get used to it or lose your mind.

This uptick in sorties increases the chance of an incident from both sides. China might appreciate the chance to attack the island with everything they have. Maybe they’re hoping for an incident. In this swirling conflict just waiting to kick off, what does the US and Europe do? How do they gently apply pressure on the CCP while not letting Xi Jinping (Chairman of China) believe war with the US and Europe is imminent?

I think they’re doing it by flaunting China’s decrees and visiting Taiwan anyway.  

The one thing Beijing insists on is absolute authority over Taiwan. It’s why any country that has official relations with Taiwan is cut off diplomatically from Beijing. In the CCP’s opinion, it’s just another province that’s gone rogue not a separate country with an ambassador, an embassy and a flag. Only a handful of countries actually recognize Taiwan and most are small nations themselves like Belize and Haiti.

By risking Beijing’s ire and visiting the island they hope to send a signal to the CCP that they stand with Taiwan. They probably hope to make the Chinese think that they will be giving up a lot in the form of markets with an attack.

I have no idea if this will work but it’s worth a try. It’s similar to standing up to a bully by showing up in support of the weakling. It’s much better to find a larger bully and enlist him on your side. But that isn’t an option. So you do what you can with gestures.

 You aren’t sending transport planes full of soldiers. That would be more overt and dangerous. You are matching Beijing’s bravado with bravado and reminding them that Taiwan has friends.

Don’t think Xi Jinping hasn’t considered the cost of a full scale invasion. But what is the cost? The CCP would love to get their hands on the Taiwan’s leaders and imprison them for their ‘rebellion’. Until now that equation had to take into account the might of the United States and her expansive navy. The navy is of course still there but in the last 10 years the Chinese have strengthened their position in the South China Sea. They’ve drudged up sand bars and built make shift military bases in strategic spots.

It’s given them positions from which to patrol and attack enemies. It was much easier for the US to guard the oceans with battleships and cruisers when no one else had them. It’s a different calculus when the enemy has a respectable navy.

Expect to see more ‘unofficial’ visits from foreign dignitaries in the upcoming months.

 The idea is to get Beijing to reconsider an attack by showing how much they stand to lose. I don’t imagine any western power goes to war over Taiwan. But an incident in which Beijing could claim to be the victim would give democratic countries an excuse to ignore the whole problem. Imagine Taiwan’s air defense fires off a rocket at a passing bomber sparking a war. China could claim they were attacked. It’s weak I know, but it might be enough for western powers (like the US) to stay out of it.

The best situation for Taiwan is to keep a steady stream of visitors from the West. The only leverage they really have is making China believe an attack would force a break with the West. That would be devastating economically.