Taiwan: A Country in Limbo

 

Is Taiwan Close to Being Subdued?

What’s the state of affairs around Taiwan’s defense? Beijing makes aggressive moves, drills and war games, just outside of their air defense zone regularly. It could be a bluff to try and draw out some response from Taipei. If they shot down a plane, the CCP could use it as a pretext to start a war. China considers Taiwan a “breakaway province” anyway, so it’d more like a police crackdown to them.

Officially the US still has a treaty with Taiwan, for whatever that’s worth. Nowhere in the treaty does it commit the US to come to their aid if Beijing sends troops and starts dropping bombs. The language of the agreement is vague in that State Department way of agreeing but not committing.

No one wants to get in a hot war over Taiwan. We’ve had enough of fighting other battles for a while. We can’t get into another one.  

Besides, the US isn’t in a strong position vis a vis China. They manufacture most of our consumer goods, electronics and clothing. War would be much costlier than in the 80s. Back then the Chinese were still trying to feed large swaths of their rural population. Russia was surely a greater threat. But now, China is the world’s factory. We’d suddenly see what it was like to start manufacturing for ourselves again. But starting up domestic industries out of desperation would be tough. Good for America long term, yes. But painful in the short term.

 If you think the start and stop of industries during Covid was bad wait until we get into a hot war with China. It would be like throwing a moving yacht into reverse. The whiplash alone will cause the most wreckage.

How would Beijing actually inflict their will on Taiwan? I’ve read some reports that say a blockade makes the most sense. Beijing could set up a perimeter at strategic ports around the island and start telling foreign commercial ships to turn around. That is unless their country of origin (say the United Kingdom) agrees to cut off all ties to the Taiwanese government. A blockade is closest to how China has operated so far. Seeking to isolate the country, CCP officials put pressure on other countries for either “recognizing” Taiwan or having diplomatic relations with them. Before China joined the WTO (World Trade Organization) and gained some legitimacy few thought war was even possible. This was 2001.

But the mainland isn’t a poor third world country anymore, even if large parts of it are rural farmland. They’ve basically told the rest of the world they own the South China sea. An absurdly large territory that encircles a vast number of other countries Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, Brunei and Singapore. But in politics and global domination, the big and bold make the decisions. I read a fair amount of opinions that think an invasion is unlikely. Mostly because it’s really hard to win a war and impose your will. Even the United States got out of Afghanistan after 20 years without accomplishing a whole lot. Ditto for Iraq.

After we deposed Saddam, we felt the sting of a counter insurgency. That took another few years to get control of, and a troop surge, followed by another troop surge. It’s easy to look back and be critical about the overall mission, but the simple fact remains, war is complicated. Another aspect of the Chinese PLA (People Liberation Army) is the lack of actual combat they’ve had. In order to be good at fighting and subduing populations you need experience. The Chinese haven’t had any real wars to speak of. That doesn’t bode well for success in a foreign endeavor, even one with a significantly smaller population. Military manuals and schools of thought are built on the framework of previous excursions. You need to have combat in order to teach it, at least if you’re invading another country that’s usually the case.

Of course this doesn’t mean they won’t succeed. But it does mean it won’t be as easy as they hope. Anyway, China doesn’t want to blow up Taiwan. They want to capture their industries and steal their intellectual property. Taiwan has some of the largest semiconductor and telecom industries in the world. The wealth of the country is the real prize. As a side issue, the United States has sadly lost a lot of clout as a defender of liberal democracies. I realize this probably sounds a little naïve, maybe World War II was the last time we were thought of like that. But if America still is a force for good around the world it means other countries need to believe it too.

Our strength and position (militarily, economically) is significantly weaker than it was 20 years ago. China knows this. It’s why they’re acting belligerent toward Taiwan. I’m not sure we could do much other than pressure them diplomatically. Maybe that’s the best choice for now.