Pelosi's Gamble on Taiwan

 

US to Signal Future On Taiwan With Pelosi Visit

Will Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan create the impetus for an attack from Beijing?

She is supposed to visit Taiwan sometime in August. We won’t know exactly when because security is a major issue with heads of state and diplomats. US officials frequently fly in on military aircraft and the Speaker’s visit would likely look no different. It’s a problem for Beijing because they claim Taiwan as a providence of the mainland. I won’t go into the whole history of Taiwan and China or the United States’ ‘One China’ policy that’s guided affairs since 1971.

Where We Were

The short version is that we (the US) have an agreement with Taiwan to provide them with defensive means in case of an attack. We don’t call Taiwan a ‘country’ nor advocate for their independence. The first would be admitting that it’s a sovereign nation. The second would be encouraging rebellion from the central government. So we walk this awkward line that only creative diplomacy could have drawn. It’s worked for now. Mostly because China didn’t have the ability to do anything about our strategic partnership with Taiwan.

But this isn’t 1985 anymore. 

The PRC (Peoples Republic of China) have been building up defensive fortifications in the South China Sea. Not only because of Taiwan but to establish a zone of influence and push back against America’s Navy. The navy enjoys freedom of the seas and patrols the world’s oceans as the default police. This is a good thing. You wouldn’t want China to play this role. Beijing’s military buildup increases their belligerence and power. It’s making the possibility of war between us and them a real thing.

Where We Are

Their message to Pelosi if she goes ahead with her visit: the United States will bear the consequences of their actions. In other words, a military response. In recent years they’ve stepped up their sorties over the strait and the US increased naval exercises in response. It’s a chess match played out with very high stakes. The PRC has done this kind of thing before.

 In 1995 Congress offered the Taiwanese president (Lee Tung-hui) a visa to speak at his Alma Matter, Cornell.

Beijing complained that the US was rejecting its official position as neutral on Taiwan, which of course we were. America has never really been neutral on the issue, but diplomacy requires a lighter touch. Better to argue over breakdowns in communication than argue about when to send in the troops. Neutrality comes with its own conflicts.

The State department issued the visa despite China’s protest. China responded by ramping up military exercises and lobbing missiles into the strait. The attempt to intimidate Taiwan resulted in closer ties with the US and Japan over the security of the island. Not to mention we’ve sold them missile defense technology many times over since then. But also, China put a lot of effort into building up their puny navy. They have 2 aircraft carriers and a 3^rd is on the way. They have more war ships than the US (355 versus 305) and their island dredging campaigns give them ocean bases from which to launch attacks.

Where We Are Going

The PRC isn’t confined to their mainland anymore and they’ve build one hell of a military. The question now, how committed is the US to defending Taiwan?

I don’t think Nancy Pelosi will go to Taiwan with a military escort. The Washington Examiner suggested she fly commercial to Taipei. At least then it doesn’t look like a provocation. It’s still a poke in the eye though. If president Xi Jinping flew to Seattle with on an official visit and didn’t bother to let the US government know, we’d consider that a major break from tradition and an offense. But it’s better than flying there with his PLA (Peoples Liberation Army) fighter jets in tow.

I’m not using moral equivalency. The United States and China are not two sides of the same coin. But in diplomacy you always have to imagine how the other side might view it. Beijing has been telling their people that Taiwan belongs to them. How does it look then when they issue warnings to other governments to back off and they don’t listen? There will be a response I have no doubt. Hopefully it’s not a direct attack.

 We need to defend Taiwan while recognizing that it’s the Taiwanese people who will be hurt most of all by an attack from the mainland’s anger.