New Boss, Same as the Old Boss

 

The Taliban is on a path to recapture much of the country again. Which country you ask? The one we supposedly kicked them out of back in 2001, Afghanistan. I’ll try not to be too sarcastic about the whole war effort that over 2000 Americans have died in, but it’s been 20 years and it looks like nothing has changed. We’ve spent billions training up their security forces as well.

 I know, I know it’s crass to talk about money but 2 Trillion dollars is the estimate right now.

I’ll admit one thing right up front, I didn’t follow the news particular close after about 2010. Take my comments with an appropriate level of skepticism. There may be some great achievements in the country that I’ve overlooked. I know women were able to vote and go to school. That’s not nothing, but the reason we were there was to punish Al Qaeda and capture Bin Laden. I’m fine with the rebuilding efforts to prevent another Taliban-like group from coming in.

Sadly the next Taliban-like group was. . . the freaking Taliban!

With both the Iraq and Afghanistan our military made a generous attempt to remake the countries and shore up their democratic institutions. It seems like by nearly every measure it has been a failure, for Afghanistan at least. Supposedly Hamid Karzai, the first president since the war, was corrupt and incapable of managing the country. I don’t know anything about his successor Ashraf Ghani, who will probably be shot when the Taliban take Kabul.

 Every war effort is going to go bad at some point. It isn’t realistic to think every outreach, school and economic incentive is going pay off. How many federal programs in this country are overrun with grifters and thieves? Would a bent police captain in Kandahar be less of a fraudster? I’m not making a relativist point here, in a lot of the world bribery and graft are just how business gets done.

I never expected a smooth process but I did think (honestly I did) that the Afghanis would be better off long term--after we left. It’s easy to be cynical about the war. Americans were bombarded with comparisons to Vietnam and the “quagmire” since the first insurgent blew up a convoy in Helmand province.

It was never a fair comparison. But it stuck, in part because Americans who remember it know how the public eventually turned on the war. During the first Gulf War, George Bush Sr. sent troops into Iraq to prevent Saddam Hussein from capturing oil fields in Kuwait. The battle was swift and Saddam’s Republican Guard collapsed within weeks. But we stopped after that. We didn’t go after Saddam. He continued to be a pest at the UN. He kicked out inspectors. He put down a rebellion in the North by the Kurds. We put in place a no fly zone to keep him from moving north. But we didn’t kill or capture him.

Was it the smart play at the time to leave him in power? Who knows. What kind of chaos might have ensued in the region had if we tried to kill him then? In war you’re always deciding between two bad choices. I’ll give the war planners a break. It’s easy to talk about how we shouldn’t be trying to rebuild countries with democracy and strong law enforcement. Just as a control group I’ll suggest Syria. Yes I know we’ve been at least partly helping anti-regime groups in Syria but it’s far from a full war. Russia’s been there too, helping Assad.

That country is a disaster with hardly any help from the West. Remember Obama’s “Red Line” comment to Assad in 2012 about using chemical weapons? Assad used them, we didn’t stop him. I don’t know if we should have or not. I think we make trade-offs when we go to war. We have one goal in mind and a few secondary ones.

Sometimes the first one is a failure, for a lot of reasons.

The worst part for the United States is our legacy of offering help and then leaving is firmly set. It’s unfair I know. I’ve worked with people who never take chances or step outside their comfort zone to help others. Those who do and fail get heaps of criticism.

What’s to be done? Our soldiers and marines took a lot the territory that’s now being handed back to same thugs that killed our men before. It’s maddening. But does anyone think another 5 years would matter to the readiness of the Afghan security forces? At some point they’ll have to manage their own country. Sadly I don’t think Americans care much anymore. That’s not a slight against them either.

I’m concerned that the lasting image of the war in Afghanistan will be another helicopter—hovering over the American embassy with the last marine climbing up the rope.