common sense

"there is no arguing with one who denies first principles"

Sunday, August 13, 2017

Risky Business

Image result for casino royale

I used to love playing Texas Hold ‘em with friends in the student apartments when I was in college. I learned something about gambling and the risky nature of betting money. I’m not good at it. I try to cautiously gamble, which is impossible, and carefully wager money. One of my friends use to say he could read my ‘tells’ easier than most. “Really?" I said. "What do I do that makes you know the kind of cards I’m holding.”
“Easy.” He said. “You’re cheap with fake money the same as with real money. You only make large bets when you’re holding sure winners like Aces or Kings.” I tried to argue but he had me. Some people can’t hide their tells. I haven’t played cards much since then. I tried overcompensating for a while by being reckless, bluffing a lot and losing quicker. I never really enjoyed it anyway. 

I’m risk averse on most things and card games are no different.  

 Gambling for poker chips is a poor measure for determining a person’s risk aversion. Individuals have different levels of risk tolerance for important things in life. I never cared about winning poker chips so I didn’t work hard at it, content to manage it comfortably and stay in the game. This might seem a little backwards. Why wouldn’t I play careless with worthless chips and bet heavy with small cards or risk it all on a bluff? Because I didn’t value winning at poker, I valued the experience of being with friends. The reward was fun, not winning.

At some point the scales tip though and the reward IS worth the risk. This is true of everyone at some point in life. It isn’t as easy as we pretend though.  We all have a risky, wager it all mentality for the right kind of reward. So what is it that turns you into a risk seeking Vegas high roller? Is it job freedom or romance, maybe a hobby?

 Figuring out what might take the better part of life.

Some people are easier than others. Professional athletes want to win and their competitiveness sometimes leads to taking performance enhancing drugs to get a slight edge. Their reward is winning medals or signing big contracts but the competition is incredibly tight so they risk getting caught and having their name destroyed. If it wasn’t worth it they wouldn’t keep doing it. Of course not all do it, but cheating at such high stakes is not unusual. They establish the reward and determine the risk. 

 Most people face the risk/reward paradox at some point in life. Some can navigate the high stakes real better than others. Day traders and commission salesman come out on the competitive side while government workers and salaried employees stay on the safe side. Most of us land somewhere between those careers on a graph, depending on our personal risk tolerance, our comfortability taking chances.

At some point in life all of us take an uncomfortable risk (or should), a step further than we intended. A step we aren’t sure about but that feels right regardless. People who start businesses know this feeling well. The strength required to make a company profitable is superhuman at times and demands regular overtime hours. From hiring honest, loyal workers to keeping customers happy and (hopefully) coming back takes an individual who knows risk. There aren’t guarantees for success and the statistics are against new ventures. Persistence and guts make the difference when talent falls short. 

Small business is not for the faint of heart yet countless people do it because the risk for them is worth the reward. Ask a business owner why they take on the burdens of running it and they’re likely to say something like, “I get to be the boss.” Or “My kids will have something of their own”. Maybe “I love the job, I am good at it.” “I make more money going it alone than working for someone else.”

Different reasons and different rewards but each one figured out the particular scale tipper and went ‘all in’. Some figure it out early in life and others much later. We all have it though and in most major points in life (career, marriage, finance) the scale tips and we make a bet.


As for cards, I just can’t do it anymore. I never enjoyed it much anyway and losing any amount of money is just too painful. Besides after this article everyone knows my ‘tell’. How can I possibly go on?

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