What's in a name

 I like companies with obvious names. "Joe's Pizza Shack" and "Smithfield Accounting" tell me what I need, no obfuscation. They come complete with locations and signs, phone numbers and websites. Not everyone takes this approach.

I remember going to a job interview in a dank lower level of a downtown building. I'd answered an ad to interview for this sales job with no idea what they sold. No sign advertising the company name or product or service was available. Thinking this was a bad omen and a maybe a bit dodgy, under my breath I managed “Well, I’ve come this far”. I filled out a short form and handed it to the woman in a dim office behind a stack of boxes. The interviewer finally called me in. He asked me how I spent free time and what-kind-of-person-are-you questions. “Um…well…you know I like running, writing, watching baseball. I grew up in Illinois, moved here for school, bought a house.” He asked a few life-work balance type questions, can you work long hours.  

I’m normally a ‘get to the point’ kind of guy but people looking for work can’t be picky. I kept my answers short, awkward as they were, but he was clearly dawdling. 

  

He wanted to know how much I wanted salary wise, ideally. Keep in mind, I’m still not sure what we do or how many hours we work. I put down a high-ish number and he glanced at it and said “Why so low?” Right then I decided I didn’t want the job. If I had less tact I would have tossed my hands up and said “I’m outta here!” I have a low tolerance for bullshit and the room was beginning to smell.

I stayed for a few more questions hoping for a graceful exit. Turns out the job was selling subscriptions for AT&T, but not through AT&T. I wouldn’t have gone to the interview if I’d known that. Nothing against that kind of work but it isn’t for me. The company name (which I can’t remember) revealed nothing about the type of work.

Opaque names like “Global Services Inc.” or “Web Industry Professionals” should be a red light to job seekers. I’ve learned this the hard way of course. To my mind there are few reasons for doing this.

With companies like AT&T they either farm their door to door stuff out to third parties because it’s cheaper or less messy. It might be both. Home owners hate door to door salesman. They knock on the door when you’re eating dinner and refuse to leave after a “thanks but I’m not interested”. When the salesman with the clipboard and eager pitch has a lanyard with the company logo around their neck it leaves a bad impression.

Corporations, always careful about appearances avoid the door to door label afraid of the blowback from angry customers who associate that brand with mid-dinner sales pitches. But straight commission jobs make the numbers easier for companies, no insurance or healthcare or taxes to pay up front.

A third reason is the lack of any responsibility connected with the sellers. I signed up for a service a few years after I moved into this neighborhood. Yes I know, I know, even after complaining about the tactics I took a quick look at the deal and thought “Oh, really? For how long, 6 months? Not bad. Sign me up!” I was lucky. My bill matched what the girl sold me. I only used it for the 6 month offering. The price shot up 30 percent after that. No surprise of course but I hoped to get an extension on the low rate. No dice. I sent the equipment back and bought an antenna. I don’t watch that much TV.

I looked at an AT&T forum to find out how others fared. Nearly all of them complain about being lied to. They turn around and complain to AT&T, who in turn treats the package seller like a mobster in witness protection “Who? What? No I don’t know him”. Customers often get told to call the person who sold the package and straighten it out. But they never answer the phone. It’s not like they have a corporate phone line anyway. The only number the customer has is from the salesman who sold the package. 

This is the real benefit for both parent company and seller. A franchisee that sells internet and TV packages isn’t really accountable to a larger corporate parent. I’m not implying that the business itself is underhanded. But I’d seen enough of their tactics to know I didn’t want any part of it.

First principles insists, quality companies won’t hide.

Now if a non-descript company posts an ad I Goggle it. If Goggle can’t find the company than the search is over.  

No Content No Problem

Normally I’d have written a sports piece by now. These aren’t normal times.

The Cubs would be in week 2. You can’t get a great sense of a team that soon but April baseball is still baseball. I can’t watch old replays of games from years ago. ESPN showed the classic ‘20 strikeout’ game Kerry Wood pitched in 1998. I couldn’t bring myself to watch it. I’m not one for re-living old games. Sure not having any sports is tough but I can’t go back there. Maybe a couple minutes of Michael Martinez hitting into a grounder in game 7 of the World Series. Chris Bryant scoops, throws; Anthony Rizzo catches and steps on the bag, celebration on. That last inning I’d watch, 2016 wasn’t that long ago. 

Yes I know how insufferable we are about ’16. I’m sure every Cardinals fan rolls their eyes when we say it, but how bout them Cubs!!?

I listen to a podcast by David Kaplan called Cubs Talk. It’s been awful since Corona. It’s a twice weekly show with no content to speak of. The guys are still putting out episodes but it’s like guys at the bar talking. The subjects are Cubs all-timers, funny player stories and team trivia. Not great, but then it’s hardly their fault. I’m impressed that they’re still putting out material. I’m not sure I could put together enough for two shows a week when the team isn’t playing, or practicing, or trading. 

All the 24/7 channels like Fox Sports and ESPN are doing work but it’s very lean. Fortunately there are some moves happening in the NFL, trade rumors and draft talk to report on. Normally I beat these guys up for focusing too much on silly non-sports stuff like Twitter wars amongst athletes. I’d kill for some of that gossipy stuff now. I feel genuinely bad for these hosts with really nothing to report on. They’ve resorted to just asking other hosts for opinions from their upstairs offices. The ‘studios’ are just laptop cameras, earbuds, poor audio and over-lit rooms.

Not being at work means I haven’t watched as much. Work for me means TVs at high volume and sports around the clock, it’s a sporting goods store after all. Being at home means less TV and fewer games, or at least less of the news and talk stuff early in the day. For most people it’s the other way around. 

I heard Kaplan say that when baseball finally does come back they’ll have to do another spring training before they can start the games. That seems odd to me. Why aren’t the players staying in shape during this quarantine phase? Maybe there is just something about game level speed that can’t be replicated without a full month of training. I’m sure this is true for pitchers but I doubt position players need to see a month of big league pitching to get right. Spring is usually a slow month for hitters anyway. When the weather warms up the averages climb, at least I think that’s right. But since everyone is slower I don’t see the problem with starting everyone as soon as possible. They have the same disadvantages after all.

There are more important aspects of life that need to get sorted out first. We need to get back to work for one thing. We need to earn money and find purpose again. Kids can’t be learning much from zoom lectures. Then again maybe the parents who can will see the benefits of homeschooling through all of this. It’s not an option for most but others can really thrive in a goal driven environment. Maybe some teachers will be able to create amazing lessons, upload videos and get great feedback from kids. Not having certain classroom distractions makes it possible to actually teach. This may be a blessing for some.

In the meantime my sports bug will just have to itch.

America's Changing Priorities

I replaced a few planks on my deck today.

 I’ve been taking advantage of the time off work. It’s just a good thing Lowes is still operational or I’d really get bored. Two years ago I replaced a couple of planks that started to warp, a year before that two more. I’m still a ways from having more replacement wood than original wood, but it isn’t far off either. This got me thinking, at what point does it become a new deck? How many new pieces of wood, or even screws, constitute a new addition?

This is an old paradox called ‘My Grandfather’s axe’. It’s the same problem, if I replace the handle and wrap it in tape is it still my grandfather’s axe? What if I replace the head and paint it? That’s what Coronavirus thinking gets you, new framework for old questions. There isn’t a good answer. It’s a thought experiment to show you how a thing, or idea, can retain some essential characteristic through time. At what point does America change enough to become a different country altogether? 

A lot of what comes from the quarantines and isolation is positive. I grilled some chicken and pork chops the other day and shared them with my neighbors who were both outside enjoying the weather. We chatted about the news, housing prices, good restaurants. I’d never met them before.

The lack of a place to go first thing in the morning allows me to read the Bible and write some commentary, just reflections mostly. I’m pulling more meaning out of it than ever before and it’s wonderful, necessary, about time. Also I’m eating more and not getting any gym time in so you know…it’s not all good. What the world looks like when we all get back to life will depend on how long we all holed up and waited for the all clear.

We’re kids sitting around the pool desperate for the lifeguard to blow the whistle and end 'adult swim'.

The longer it goes the more the country looks different. That time looks like at least 2 more weeks. I suspect state officials will push it back even further though. No one wants to be an outlier. Governors taking the ‘abundance of caution’ route look responsible with every new limit they impose. It never works the other way. That posture makes me think we’ll be at home longer than April. At least the governors’ call the shots. New York has different problems than Oklahoma so it doesn’t make sense to do this from Washington DC.

At what point does the country look significantly different? Are we just replacing a few planks or is this a bigger job?

The same way the 911 created a sense of dread about Islamic terrorism, we also came together like never before. We started taking national security seriously. Whatever the mistakes and excesses that followed, defense of the homeland was a primary concern.   

Change is coming to a few big areas. First, a decoupling from ‘China Inc’ and commitments to build, design and assemble elsewhere. This move away from the PRC is already in the works and has since at least Trump starting banging trade war drums after his election. Some companies (Google, Facebook) never got off the ground because of government restrictions and intellectual property theft. China still manufactures a lot that makes it way to our shores on a cargo ship, so decoupling will be gradual. It’s not a surprise that their paranoid, shut-down-all-dissent model of fixing problems is why we got Covid19 anyway.

Second, the US passed a 2 trillion dollar pork barrel recovery bill. Remember when Obama passed the TARP bill for $700 billion and everyone was like “That’s outrageous!!” Well they just tippled the offering and we all shrug like "Ahh, what can you do?". I get that TARP was for Wall Street and this bill is for everyone, but it’s ridiculous to spend that much. It’s more accurate to say borrow, we didn’t spend as much as borrow on the future. Somewhere in the $500 billion range would have covered payroll for a month (I think). Payroll is at least the stated goal. Figures like that suggest a raid on the treasury, Hans Gruber at Nakatomi Plaza style.

The worst part of big spending bills is the more we use them the more we get them.

Third, how many people will find opportunity not available before Corona? I’m hoping to add my name to that list as well. Maybe a side business or a chance that wasn’t there before. We need more small businesses owners in this country and most people have some skill or service to offer. It’s not possible for everyone to switch to working from home full time, but many will start. Routine drug refills and doctor visits have already shifted to an online customer portal (tele-medicine) for quicker access. I had to use it a couple of weeks ago since going to the hospital was out of the question.

Most of these changes are easy to spot because in some way, they’re already going that way. I’m curious about the essential character of American life though. The Coronavirus shutdown suggests at least, a benchmark for shifting priorities. 

Will it look basically the same in 50 years or have the fundamentals been stripped away like the old slabs of wood on my deck?

  

The Leadership Framework: I Peter 5

I’ve been thinking about leadership as defined from Washington DC, politicians. Some Americans resent calling them “leaders” because they’re just elected to serve ‘We the People’. “We shouldn’t call them leaders” they say. I disagree. The responsibility for national security and economic freedom are voted on regularly. Not to mention the countless bills going through Congress amount to significant authority over our lives. We can debate about how much of that authority is legitimate, but it’s hard to argue that they wield significant power to direct cultural, spiritual and economic influence.

In Chapter 5 Peter lays out a framework for leaders and followers focused on growth benefiting everyone. We all have responsibility.

 “Shepherd the flock of God which is among you, serving as overseers, not by compulsion but willingly, not for dishonest gain but eagerly; nor as being lords over those entrusted to you, but being examples to the flock;” (verse 2)

The words “willingly” and “eagerly” suggest genuine interest in the well-being of the “flock”. Peter doesn’t say it here but the impression is that anyone who doesn’t share these characteristics has no business in the role of leadership (shepherding). Sadly we have too many examples of politicians who have enriched themselves and made deals at the expense of the public. But where a lot of Americans point to Washington and say “See, those are the bastards!” it’s only partly true.

The rest of us have a role here too.

 “Likewise you younger people, submit yourselves to your elders. Yes, all of you be submissive to one another and be clothed with humility, for ‘God resists the proud, but gives grace to the humble.” (Verse 5)

When you replace “younger people” with citizens, or those being looked out for, it fits into our model a little better. We have a role to make sure those we elect have some understanding of Godly morality and fiscal responsibility. This is tougher than it sounds. We can’t throw all responsibility for morality, spending and security on to some faceless crowd that resides in the ‘swamp’. Peter is clear that “leaders” have a larger responsibility under God, but those being led aren’t given a pass either.  

It’s easy to dismiss this as an elder in the faith writing to future believers and suggesting a kind of ‘best practices’ for getting along. True, this is written for believers (disciples) but the framework is ideal for any kind of business or non-profit. It’s an ordered way to live the most effective and efficient life. Another thing that isn’t stated but is understood is that when these principles aren’t followed life gets out of order. Greed takes over at the top or rebellion bubbles up from the bottom.

At a certain point we forget what the flash point was and ‘We the People’ stop listening to the leaders. The leaders become entrenched in personal deal making, dishonest gain and selfish pursuits. After a number of years the system perpetuates until it’s hard to remember who the real culprits are.

The spending is truly out of control and debt is a massive time bomb. But how many of us can say we’ve made perfect financial choices? Is the debt problem really just a federal issue? How about cultural and moral issues? Can we really hang all of it on politicians?

There are rewards for all of us when we follow this plan, both for leaders and followers. For leaders: “…when the chief Shepherd [Christ] appears, you will receive the crown of glory that does not fade away.”  (Verse 4)

So there is a larger goal to seek then momentary riches and short term perks. 

For followers: “Therefore humble yourselves under the hand of God, that He may exalt you in due time, casting all your care upon Him, for He cares for you.” (verse 6-7)

The theme here for both is to be submissive to a larger cause, a more meaningful approach to life that pays out in influence. There is a purpose in whatever short-term suffering we go through. The difficulty is in submitting to leaders, both political and non-political, who act frivolous and immoral. But behavior is ultimately judged by God.

Peter encourages growth in understanding and responsibility. “But may the God of all grace, who called us to His eternal glory by Christ Jesus, after you have suffered a while, perfect, establish, strengthen, and settle you.” (verse 10)

In other words, there is an end to current frustrations and a larger picture will emerge, when we settle our hearts and trust in the framework.

Pushing it

I ran 17.5 miles on Saturday! I almost can’t believe I typed that out.

The Corona-virus has sidelined every major event in the area. Sports are done, school is out, churches are closed and most people are staying in doors for as long as they need to. I guess going outside is OK but the weather is mostly rainy and cold. Saturday was a nice break. It started out cold but the sun came up shortly after we left the store and provided us with a little warmth. I still had on two shirts and cold gear pants though. I think the temperature was around 33 or 34 when we left. Most had on at least a long sleeve shirt and gloves. 

Some crazies had shorts and one guy was out there in a tank top.

I was pleased that Runners World didn’t cancel the event. Instead they spread people out a little further throughout the run. The idea with spreading out is the whole ‘social distancing’ thing, 6 feet (I think) apart. There was no reason to cancel and I’m glad they left it up to each runner to decide for themselves whether or not to show up. The training program through the store breaks everyone into two groups, half marathoners and full marathoners. Often both groups run the same route but the longer marathon group might double up on it. That’s what happened Saturday. The shorter group of half marathoners (of which I’m a part) ran an 8 mile out and back through the heart of Tulsa.

The marathoners did a second loop making it 19 miles after a quick water break and a snack. I planned on stopping with my group after the first route but my brother encouraged me to keep going. “See how much you can get” he said. I intended to get about 2 miles in and turn around. But I went anyway. Two things happened along the way that helped me out. My left knee began to ache in that dull way when you’ve pushed it too far. It wasn’t a sharp oh-no-what-was-that pain, just a muscle begging to stop. I prayed about it. One of those ‘God just get me through this’ kind of things. The throbbing went away. Thank You Lord!

The girl next to me running essentially the same pace gave me a gel pack that tasted like peanut butter and jelly. It did the trick for most of the way. I regained enough strength to carry on until that 17.5 mile mark. The reason I know it was 17.5 is that the runner next to me keeping pace said “Only one and half to go.” I was basically shuffling by this point just trying to keep it together. So I stopped and walked most of the way back with some intermittent running along the way. It must have looked pitiful because I was physically wiped out. I couldn’t have been happier that I pushed it a little bit.

All told I went 19 miles but only ran 17.5. Sometimes it’s good to push it.

Wuhan Blues

There is hardly anything to write or think about that isn’t affected by the Wuhan virus. 

Sports are on hold, even down to the high school and little league level. News is mostly just reports about the how the economy is grinding to a halt and Congress is putting some spending package together to reassure the jittery markets. Mitt Romney wants to give everyone $1000 stimulus, the administration wants to roll back regulations on business. Others are angling for an all of the above strategy and opting for a throw everything at the wall approach. The Fed chairman cut the interest rate by a quarter point the other day and it made zero difference. Not that I blame any of them. These moves are mostly cautionary and meant to reassure buyers that all is well.

This is very new territory for everyone and although I think this a giant overreaction I can’t say I’d do it differently. They have better information from medical experts. The problem is medical experts will ALWAYS recommend this very thing. No one wants to be the one who said “Ahhhh. . . it’ll prolly blow over, nothing to see here” only to have hospitals overrun with sick and dying while the healthy escape like those prisoners from The Fugitive after the bus rolled over. So we get the same result each time, an ‘abundance of caution’. To doctors responsible for containing the spread of a contagion there is no such thing as too drastic a step. 

Judges and lawyers get criticized for their authoritarian impulses, doctors have them both beat though. I think it's our societal deference to doctors as a whole that makes any criticism of their opinions seem like foolishness. 

Partly I’m struggling to put the pieces together on how to feel about this thing. Should I be angry at the Chinese for not alerting others about the outbreak and danger to travelers? Yes, but that’s like being angry about rain-out ball games in April; they happen regularly and you have to account for it. Malfeasance is the Beijing way, they went after journalists who reported on the disease instead of thanking them. The problem is they want to be a world player but still govern their country by crushing dissent. You can’t have it both ways; eventually something like this happens and reminds everyone that China is still communist.

Is this overreach in shutting down restaurants and health clubs and movie theaters within the authority of American governments at any level? No, but I’m not complaining for a couple of reasons. This really is a first and it’s not like this happens every 5 years or so. The concern with libertarian types is that governments can use these events to impose strict controls. That’s true but it’s clear to me from watching even one press conference that the government is playing catch up. It’s not to say they are doing a terrible job but what does a good job look like exactly? It’s not like we have a long history of managing these panics.

And for Democrats who think Trump is way over his head on this, let this be exhibit A in why Republicans prefer a very small, limited government.

It wouldn't look much different under a Democrat. The non-political actors would be essentially the same, the Center for Disease Control (CDC) and whichever private/public partnership were put in place. One positive is in letting the state and local governments figure out ground level stuff. It won’t all work well but the more rigid and specific the federal response is the tougher it becomes to make it work locally. Most of this will be a wait and see what works kind of thing. As long as the feds makes funding available when it’s needed, they’ve done most of their job. Also removing a lot of the red tape that comes with developing a test and vaccine should be a priority.

As a Christian I’m glad Mike Pence is the point man on this. He strikes me as someone who defers to others when he needs to and genuinely works toward fixing a problem. He is a praying man and I find that reassuring.  

Trade: Winners and Losers

 

The other day a friend started a back and forth, on Facebook, about subsidies and American farm policy. It came up that most people don’t realize that farmers are a heavily subsidized group. It’s always tough to know what people understand and don’t about the economy. I’m surprised nearly every day at how little I know. I do understand that subsidies create distortions in the price of a thing. For example, what does an MRI actually cost? After the insurance pays its portion we get a bill. How much of that is distorted by the hospital? If just this one sector of the US economy is so distorted, how bad is it for trade deals?

Trade between two countries is tricky enough to manage. It gets trickier when you factor in other countries for group deals. I get the impulse to collectivize (sorry, bad word) “unionize” into a large trading bloc and take advantage of lower pricing. That’s the whole point of trade anyway, get the best rate. The size of the community determines the size of the deal.

It’s the same reason you get better health care plans with a national company like Target instead of a mom and pop retailer. But who can keep up with these big deals and how can we really determine who the winners and losers are? I think going back 20 years or more gives a clearer picture on how a deal turned out.

Trump and Co just rewrote the original NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) deal that stood since the early nineties among the US, Mexico and Canada. No one seems to know if the original deal was good or bad though. Like everything else encompassing such varied interests, it depends on who you ask. Trump didn’t like it, we know that, and the new deal he signed (United States Mexico Canada Agreement or USMCA) did add some extra concessions from Canada on milk subsidies, opening up that market to US dairy. They added some incentives for car and truck makers too, while beefing up the intellectual property laws.

No I didn’t read it, I just scanned through a few summaries.

NAFTA was much maligned for sending American jobs to Mexico. Trump’s biggest bugaboo about NAFTA, and the thing everyone complained about, is the loss of manufacturing. Companies moved south of the border for the lower wages, many of them just threatened to in order to keep the unions at bay. But the argument from big business and government was that tariffs will go away and American consumers will have lower prices.

All of that turned out to be true, but it is only one side of the argument. Trade increased overall, and the cost of producing, selling, shipping and taxing fell. That was the main point of NAFTA--get the best deal for American consumers.

Automobile manufacturing didn't do a well under NAFTA. Factory workers couldn’t rake in loot like they did in the eighties making Chrysler LeBarons and doing 65 hours a week. The unions had a large part in making it tough for younger workers to make the same money. Steep legacy costs practically ensured that no one would get the sweet deal the old timers had. Eventually the ones on the golf course and in the retirement community outnumber the ones actually building the cars. No industry can carry on like this forever. It’s like a bad welfare scheme but instead the many supporting the few, the few support the many. 

Bernie Sanders might love it but most of us know it won’t work for long.

So the auto industry was in trouble before NAFTA came along but international trade was already heading in this direction. The goal of every company that builds and buys is to reduce the cost of doing so. The most direct way is to make deals with companies we already trade with a lot, Canada and Mexico. I think trade deals are the future of business but I don’t think every deal is beneficial.

So for my question at the beginning, who wins and who losses? Consumers win in both NAFTA and the new USMCA. I can’t say for sure that manufacturing will win, or rather that workers in factories will win. I’m all for keeping jobs in this country but the wages from the eighties were artificially high. The US was king in both domestic and international sales but the Japanese started making headway. In other words, few countries could compete on a big level.

I’d prefer a totally free market in which we didn’t use subsidies or need international trade deals. Free markets are messy though and big business and government always want to tweak the market one way or another. It’s the way things are until we can figure out a way to fix the whole mess. 

When I have an answer I’ll be sure to share it on Facebook.