Taiwan's Uncertain Future

 

Among the many leaders around the globe, Tsia Ing-Wen will certainly miss Trump.

On the day of Joe Biden’s inauguration the Chinese military flew jets into Taiwan’s airspace. The size of the fleet made it a much bigger provocation then the usual fighter jet sortie. It was probably an aggressive ‘show of force’ display meant to see how Biden’s team would react. In other words, can we trust Joe to interfere?

The State Department did issue a pro forma statement of support for Taiwan but those don't carry weight.

For those who need a quick refresher on Taiwan, here is the 2 cent version. After World War II the nationalist government was run out of China by the Communists and Mao Ze Dong. The United States supported the nationalist government of the Kuomintang (KMT) and their leader Chiang Kai Shek. But the better organized Communists pushed the nationalists out in 1949. Chiang Kai Shek’s forces were no match and key members of the court were moved to Taiwan.

Taipei became the seat of the government of China. The United States recognized this group as the official government of China in exile but abandoned the position in 1979 under Jimmy Carter. The Communist Party were as good as rebels, but as the years went on in became difficult to pretend the real leaders of China were in Taipei. So who was in Beijing? A policy called “One China” became the framework for diplomacy with the United States. It recognizes that China or the PRC (People’s Republic of China) is a sovereign state and the only government of the Chinese people. The US stops short of saying that Taiwan is part of China, putting them in a difficult situation.

Imagine if Hawaii had a government that didn’t answer to Washington DC and had independent arms deals with foreign countries? This is how Beijing sees Taiwan, as a member of the motherland that’s acting rebelliously. I’m not completely sure how modern Taiwanese see their country in relation to China, but the old KMT wanted eventual reunification. Newer parties like the DPP, of which current president Tsai Ing Wen leads, prefer distance if not actual independence from Beijing.

The Biden administration will certainly favor closer ties with Beijing, if not only because it’s closer to the Washington consensus. In other words, that’s how it was before Trump came in and realigned the posture towards China to an adversarial one. It was necessary to get tough with the Chinese. They’ve been belligerent toward our navy in the Straits and all over the South China Sea, which despite the name is within the territory of the Beijing government. Those are international waters. Early last year they sunk a Vietnamese fishing boat and harassed others by bringing their navy as escorts to commercial fishing vessels. China claims the whole (nearly) of the South China Sea, but no one else does. Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines also have territorial claims to at least what surrounds their coastlines.

Anyone can make a claim to anything but if there is no force to back up the claim? Well., sorry but it’s not yours. This is what’s at the heart of so many diplomatic disputes over territories, not just in China but all over the world. Might is always right. For all of the talk about international organizations and treaties, without a strong country like the US underwriting the liberal views it all goes away. The International Criminal Court in the Netherlands ruled against China’s claims to the sea. “Oh No! not the ICC at the Hague! I guess we’ll rethink our actions now!”

China’s reaction was exactly how America would have responded. They ignored it.

Without an assertive navy who would ensure the laws of the sea and free navigation? International courts are joke because they lack an enforcement mechanism. But we’ve told ourselves for too long that the world is now governed by these agreements--would that it were true. The Biden administration won’t likely change policy toward Taiwan on paper. All the regular agreements will be there, but they won’t resist Beijing’s encroachment. This is what I think the recent ‘show of force’ was, a test case for a new administration with a much softer take on Sino relations.

Why will Tsai miss Trump? Because he kept an assertive China on their heels by sending envoys and diplomats to Taiwan. In the last days of the administration they even sent the UN ambassador to Taipei, angering the Chinese even more! That’s likely more about sticking the new Biden administration with another potential row though. I guess I’m going to miss Trump too.