Is the Iran War Just Begining, Or Are Is There A Plan To Finish?
Is the Iran war a Suez Crisis moment for the United States? Are
we stretched thin with another war that leaves us with a less capable military
and little influence on the global stage?
I heard Mark Steyn mention Suez in comparison to this
current war. Just so you know the comparison isn’t mine. I had to fire up the
google machine to make sure I had the facts straight. I remembered that the
Suez Crisis had something to do with an upstart Egypt putting the British
military in their place. Most historians mark this period as the point the
British stopped being a regional threat. Egypt nationalized the Suez Canal in
1956. France and Britain feared a loss of trade routes and enlisted Israel in
the attack. Technically the alliance won the war but lost diplomatically. The United
States told them all to get out because it feared the war might bring in the
Soviet Union.
Suez Crisis Aftermath
Great Britain and France acquiesced and let Egypt control
the canal. It proved that neither European country could make war without permission
from the Yankees. The comparison to Iran (I suppose) is in the possible
disaster of this current war. The spending is the least of it. America’s
reputation is at stake. From NATO to the Middle East, we don’t have the muscle
anymore to enlist allies to the cause. We’re in a military alliance with the
Europeans. Spain didn’t allow Trump to use their air base to launch attacks and
refuel jets. France and Britain sent a few ships, but with the proviso that
they be “defensive” only.
Part of this is a result of Trump just sending ships to the
region without asking for help. The other part is that Europe’s militaries are
a fraction of what they were in total troops and materiel. But then again, our
military strength is also degraded because of the Ukraine war. We’ve sold valuable
war materials to Zelensky and it’s cutting into our ability to prosecute the
one in Iran. NATO can’t possibly look the same going forward. Muslim immigrants
from north Africa and the Middle East will take over the native populations of Europe’s
countries in the next 50 years. That presents a completely different future on cooperation
with the US.
NATO’s Future
If our allies on the continent are disappearing, that leaves
fickle ones like Saudi Arabia and Qatar in the Middle East. The Saudi’s have a
very modern air force and almost all of its jets sit on the runway while the US
puts aircraft carriers in the Strait of Hormuz and does all the work. But both
Saudi Arabia and Israel benefit from having Iran decimated. Only Israel is bombing
sites and providing intel while the incredibly wealthy House of Saud does
nothing. There are some reports that they’ve helped unofficially. Keep in mind,
these are our best allies.
Iran is winning. They’re winning because inflicting small
cuts and pretending to be interested in negotiation with Trump and Vance. Once the
talks are set up, some IRGC crew in the Strait will fire on a US vessel. Or
they’ll send drones to attack the embassy of an American ally like UAE or
Bahrain. They’re winning this war asymmetrically, something they always do. It’s
not because they’re such brilliant tacticians either. They’re smart sure, but
mostly it’s for a simpler reason. They live there. You tend to defend the place
you live more vigorously than that one you try to conquer.
And now they’ve got more help.
The Expanding War
They’re a state sponsor of terrorism around the world and
now they’ve managed to get the Houthis involved. Mostly they attack Israel with
drones (from Yemen) and disrupt commercial shipping. If it’s not obvious by now,
this war is expanding. We need to get out of this now or begin yet another conflict
that lasts decades. From the beginning, this war plan felt like it was drawn up
on a cocktail napkin by a couple of staffers after a boozy night a DC bar. They
never had a good answer for how to control the Hormuz Strait and the war aims have
shifted from no nukes to regime change. Eventually they skuttled the regime
change stuff and settled for controlling the Strait.
Isreal might to blame
for a lot of the intelligence errors, mostly thinking that the regime would
fall with a few well-placed missiles. But did we have to go along with it? Of
course not. You can’t blame Netanyahu for wanting to drag the United States
into this. The Iranian regime was on life support after their economy cratered.
It looked like it might fall. They retaliated against their own people and brutally
crushed the dissent. We went into this hoping to nudge the Iranian people to
rise up by bombing a few key areas and killing a few leaders.
Despite what the administration said about not allowing them
to get a nuke, I think it was more about destabilizing the IRGC (Iranian
Revolutionary Guard Core) and trying to get a friendlier neighbor in Tehran. We
destroyed Fordow last year. Yet somehow we need to go in again? I don’t buy it.
Trump was the one president that wouldn’t fall for this endless war business.
We were sure of it. Yet here we are again. I’m convinced that a lot of these
conflicts we get into don’t have an end goal in mind.
The point is to dole out money and contracts to well placed
companies. The longer it goes, the more money they make. Like the cement company
with an interstate road contract, always finding more places to build roads
whether we need them or not. It’s called a racket. I’m not accusing Trump of running
a racket, but it feels like it’s baked in to the intelligence he gets.
Good News?
Jim Rickards was on War Room yesterday with an idea on how
to get out of this. I’m not sure if he was just passing on information he’d
heard from the intelligence community, but here it goes. The Defense Department
deployed the Dark Eagle hypersonic missile which has a range of supposedly (1725
miles). We are able to hit Tehran from Diego Garcia with a cruising speed of Mach
5. It brings such destructive energy that destroys everything. The idea would
be, hit the nuclear site in Tehran with the missile and cover your ears. The entire
site would be dust. At least then the war’s stated objective would be accomplished,
and we could turn the ships around. It might be the best thing to hope for. Winning
looks like leaving. The sooner the better.
I’ve been reluctant to write about Trump and Iran because I love
the president and want the administration to succeed. It doesn’t help to dump extra
criticism on the pile when things are going poorly. But this whole effort was never
going to work the way it was sold. Foreign
policy always overtakes whatever genuine problems we have within our borders. By
foreign policy I mean war not diplomacy. This won’t be a Suez Crisis moment if
we get out now.
Conclusion
I’ve never been a “let those foreigners fend for themselves”
type of guy. But I’m nearly there. Trump’s attempt to expose institutional
corruption gets derailed with every head fake from Iran on negotiation. It’s
time to focus on corruption at home, whether in our election system or in the state
billing fraud that’s been shown in Minnesota and California. Corruption
explains nearly everything from the broken immigration system to human trafficking.
It’s time for a reckoning. Let’s get our own house in order.
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