The Iran War is a Mistake

 

Get Out of Iran As Quickly As Possible

Despite the many good reasons for war with Iran, the wiser path is to squeeze them financially and let the Iranian people decide to overthrow the clerics. If the people of Iran won't overthrow their own cruel leaders then neither should we.  

Being against a war your country is engaged in requires a thorough explanation. Although the burden of proof should be on the ones prosecuting the war, it’s usually on the one’s opposing it. The Trump administration hasn’t considered the numerous chances for disaster if the Mullahs dig in. China could get involved and make this a very big war, Iranian leaders might hunker down and refuse a deal. Ground troops will be necessary if the US wants any influence over the new government. The US might not have enough munitions to go the full 4-6 week timeline that Karolin Leavitt (White House spokesman) mentioned.  

Why are we embroiled in another Mid East war?

 Last summer it was all about Iran’s nuclear ambition. What is it this time? I’m not one for beating up on team Trump for optics, but this is war. The one thing the American people deserve is a consistent answer on another Middle East war. Don’t tell us that’s Iran is close to getting another bomb either. Last summer we “Totally obliterated” the nuclear facility at Fordow. Those were the President’s words as he assured us it would be a while before Tehran could even think about rebuilding.

And now we have to go back, 9 months later, because they’re still a threat? I don’t think so.

Iran is the enemy of our allies in the Mid East, of whom there are quite a few now. Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait and Iraq: some of them are allies because they’re aligned with Saudi Arabia or because they signed the Abraham Accords.

Why now and not last summer?

The most recent protests in Iran by the people began in the Bazaar with the merchants. Money was stretched thin and prices went up, making life difficult. Those strikes led to larger protests. The Islamic government cracked down hard. It’s difficult to know exactly how many were killed, but it’s in the thousands. Many more were beaten and jailed. The situation on the ground looked desperate for the regime. Their nuclear ambitions were set way back. Their desperate people were fighting back and trying to take over. The US government led by the War Department, thought this was the best time to make a move and topple the Jenga tower that is the Iranian regime.

That’s the real reason. Opportunity in the form of protests, knocked.

But Iran only looks one way from the outside. This is an existential fight for them and they’re in a corner. They took a serious beating last year from Israel in the 12 Day War. Not to mention all of their proxies were decimated, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. But it’s still not likely they just raise their hands and surrender to the Great Satan. After the first wave of ballistic missile strikes from American and Israeli jets, they’ve hunkered down. The Islamic Republic is ready to defend their turf from a ground invasion, said their Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. This might be tough talk and chest thumping. I think it’s more in keeping with their obstinate behavior.  

Does this have anything to do with China?

Yes I think it does. If you know anything about Trump, it’s that he understands the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) to be the biggest threat to the US. One way to take out your enemy is to hit their resources. China relies on oil from both Iran and Venezuela, both by evading US sanctions. We know what happened to Venezuela. They lost their president and their source of income in a matter of days. Trump wants to treat Iran the same way and cut China off from whatever resources Iran can sell them. This isolates China just enough and forces economic tightening in the country. Ironically, this is also the thing that potentially brings the CCP into the conflict. Once you start cutting off opportunities for growth and survival the only thing left is war.

None of this is to excuse China’s behavior in the South China Sea, or their economic warfare against American industries and their spying on American businesses. In the first few months of Trump’s second term, he forced Panama to make a deal with the US for use of the canal. And by extension, Panama kicked China out. Most of Trump’s big moves are designed to roll back the influence of Beijing.

Aren’t there good reasons for this War?

Yes, especially if settling old scores matters. Iran has been a Hydra for terrorism around the world since the revolution of 1979. Victor Davis Hanson said on his Signal YouTube channel that they’ve killed more Americans than any other country, since before the Iran/Iraq war. We lost 241 marines in Lebanon to a truck bomb outside their barracks. After we ousted Saddam from Iraq, Iran helped supply the Shia militias with weapons, IEDs and training. They stormed the embassy in Tehran, during the revolution, and held American hostages for over a year. Yes, we owe them.

Not to mention, the reasons I mentioned regarding China and their belligerence toward American hegemony. But in this case the risks outweigh the rewards. If we wanted revenge on Iran for the marines, we should’ve taken it years ago. This is going back 40 plus years. So that’s not a legitimate reason for a full scale war.

Why I’m against this war 

Our missile supplies are low. The US military is low on munitions thanks to our support of Ukraine to fight Russia. We’ve sent a lot of our ballistic weapons to keep a war going that no one seems to care about. But even if we had an inexhaustible pile to light up sky with, you can’t know what’s happening on the ground. You’ll need to send in ground troops at some point.

For all the talk about not using ground troops, I don’t believe we’ll get out of there without committing troops. Part of the goal is to get a leader that can make a deal with Israel and the US, not to use terrorism against them. This is where it gets messy, changing regimes and sliding in someone you prefer rarely works out. I don’t trust that these protesters in Iran are actually on our side. I bought this nonsense about peoples yearning-to-be-free during the Iraq war. I’m not falling for the everyone deserves democracy anymore. No should be a slave in their own country and it’s tragic how they’ve been treated by the theocracy.

But at some point, peoples have to cast off their oppressors. If they constantly need help from outside armies, I’d say they aren’t ready yet. This current crop of Iranian people are the children of the ones who chose an Islamic Republic over a secular one. If they want to go back to a secular republic, let them. Just don’t help them.   

Conclusion

I think we can still make this a quick war by declaring victory soon. Trump wants unconditional surrender and defines it as, the regime not having enough military capability to threaten their people or neighbors. That’s not really surrender in the classic sense but it’s close enough. But the issue with these open-ended wars is the increasing responsibilities that get pulled in. The mission grows and metastasizes into a tumor that makes us all sick. Then it’s a muddle for years because no one knows how to do the surgery.

Trump famously likes to “Win”. That can be a good thing here if he’s ready to call anything Iran gives him a win. It might not be enough for the Department of War, or the CIA or the ‘conflict bros’ (Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton). But it’s a lot better than another 20 year war where we sacrifice American lives and get nothing in return.

Let’s not do that here.

I hope I’m wrong on this war and the benefits win out. But the last 2 decades do not give me hope.