US to Signal Future On Taiwan With Pelosi Visit
Will Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan create the
impetus for an attack from Beijing?
She is supposed to visit Taiwan sometime in
August. We won’t know exactly when because security is a major issue with heads
of state and diplomats. US officials frequently fly in on military aircraft
and the Speaker’s visit would likely look no different. It’s a problem for Beijing
because they claim Taiwan as a providence of the mainland. I won’t go into the
whole history of Taiwan and China or the United States’ ‘One China’ policy that’s
guided affairs since 1971.
Where We Were
The short version is that we (the US) have
an agreement with Taiwan to provide them with defensive means in case of an attack. We don’t
call Taiwan a ‘country’ nor advocate for their independence. The first would be
admitting that it’s a sovereign nation. The second would be encouraging rebellion
from the central government. So we walk this awkward line that only creative
diplomacy could have drawn. It’s worked for now. Mostly because China didn’t
have the ability to do anything about our strategic partnership with Taiwan.
But this isn’t 1985 anymore.
The PRC (Peoples Republic of China) have
been building up defensive fortifications in the South China Sea. Not only because
of Taiwan but to establish a zone of influence and push back against America’s
Navy. The navy enjoys freedom of the seas and patrols the world’s oceans as the
default police. This is a good thing. You wouldn’t want China to play this role.
Beijing’s military buildup increases their belligerence and power. It’s making
the possibility of war between us and them a real thing.
Where We Are
Their message to Pelosi if she goes ahead
with her visit: the United States will bear the consequences of their actions.
In other words, a military response. In recent years they’ve
stepped up their sorties over the strait and the US increased naval exercises in
response. It’s a chess match played out with very high stakes. The PRC has done
this kind of thing before.
In
1995 Congress offered the Taiwanese president (Lee Tung-hui) a visa to speak at
his Alma Matter, Cornell.
Beijing complained that the US was rejecting
its official position as neutral on Taiwan, which of course we were. America
has never really been neutral on the issue, but diplomacy requires a lighter
touch. Better to argue over breakdowns in communication than argue about when
to send in the troops. Neutrality comes with its own conflicts.
The State department issued the visa despite
China’s protest. China responded by ramping up military exercises and lobbing missiles
into the strait. The attempt to intimidate Taiwan resulted in closer ties with
the US and Japan over the security of the island. Not to mention we’ve sold
them missile defense technology many times over since then. But also, China put
a lot of effort into building up their puny navy. They have 2
aircraft carriers and a 3rd is on the way. They have more war ships
than the US (355 versus 305) and their island dredging campaigns give them ocean
bases from which to launch attacks.
Where We Are Going
The PRC isn’t confined to their mainland
anymore and they’ve build one hell of a military. The question now, how committed
is the US to defending Taiwan?
I don’t think Nancy Pelosi will go to Taiwan
with a military escort. The Washington Examiner suggested she fly commercial to
Taipei. At least then it doesn’t look like a provocation. It’s still a poke in
the eye though. If president Xi Jinping flew to Seattle with on an official visit
and didn’t bother to let the US government know, we’d consider that a major
break from tradition and an offense. But it’s better than flying there with his
PLA (Peoples Liberation Army) fighter jets in tow.
I’m not using moral equivalency. The United
States and China are not two sides of the same coin. But in diplomacy you
always have to imagine how the other side might view it. Beijing has been
telling their people that Taiwan belongs to them. How does it look then when
they issue warnings to other governments to back off and they don’t listen? There
will be a response I have no doubt. Hopefully it’s not a direct attack.
We
need to defend Taiwan while recognizing that it’s the Taiwanese people who will
be hurt most of all by an attack from the mainland’s anger.