Barriers to Cooperation

The president gave an address to the nation Tuesday night that lasted less than 10 minutes.

 I tuned in just as Fox cut away from announcing the event. Afterwards the Democrats gave a 5 minute or so rebuttal. Since then I’ve heard the address (the President’s) described as ‘effective’ from supporters and ‘alarmist’ from detractors. Those are my summations and not actual quotes but the two sides are hardening on this. The shutdown is getting close a month old and the country is no longer closer to an agreement on funding.  

Let’s recap. Congress does the budget every year about this time. Or at least they fund some parts of it. Last year the president wanted a wall but avoided a veto because officially the military would lose out on funding. I always thought that sounded like cover from some crafty politicos to tell Trump’s base as to why he didn’t get the money. Paul Ryan was hard against it anyway. 

When the Democrats say Trump should have done this last year, they’re right. He had more votes in theory at least. In either case the border issues had to be settled. This is the year for the border security and a “big beautiful wall” is the centerpiece of his campaign. He couldn’t exactly walk away with some half measures like additional drones. Washington DC does not want this wall. The Republican led House couldn’t make it happen last year and Democrats are less likely to.

President and Congress might have backed themselves into a corner. But it always looks that way when a shutdown is underway, who is going to blink? I do think we need a wall but at this point it feels more like the president needs a ‘win’ more than he needs the wall. Trump isn’t asking for much, a portion of the wall and 5 billion to do it. This is chump change for a 3 trillion dollar budget. Trump has threatened to declare an emergency and make the Army build it. That’s a mistake, an overreach. It’s likely a tactic to make the Democrats back off. I think he can make a strong law and order case to the American people and get the funding.

When large numbers of poor people desperate for work, escaping dangerous conditions travel they make themselves targets for smugglers. Those long treks are difficult for children and often they die of starvation or lack of water. Women become targets of rape and abuse at high rates. The president pointed this out in his address. For some, the argument about dangerous conditions and treacherous crossing is proof of the type of environment they’re coming from. "Who would undertake such a journey?" I’m sympathetic to that but countries do have a right to protect their borders. Should we stop bothering with a customs and enforcement department at all? A country without borders isn’t a country.

The biggest reason for the wall is the sheer amount of people coming in illegally. That increases the stress on social safety like welfare, law enforcement. Trump called the problem at the border a ‘crisis’. I don’t know what determines if it’s a crisis but not knowing who is in the country, to the tune of 12 million people is a problem. A wall is one part of a broad strategy to regulate traffic at the southern border. The border patrol, immigration’s courts for asylum and détente with Mexico are some of the other things. On the last point, Mexico offered a quick asylum process and jobs to members of the caravan in December. Most turned down the offer but at least it was on the table. 

 Mexico could stop most of the crossings by choking off the flow at their southern border. I’m not sure how they regulate their borders but clearly they aren’t doing enough. Their new president (Obrador) is at least making noise about keeping migrants in Mexico to apply for asylum in the US. This is the way it’s supposed to work. Anyone escaping a country for any reason has to apply for asylum in the first country they visit. The cases are backlogged in the US and most won’t get approved, but it constitutes an orderly affair.

For all Trump’s angry tirades and criticism of Mexico, Congress, MS-13 and crime in general, he has one solid point. This illegal immigration issue should have been settled years ago. American citizens can be forgiven for not trusting their government to strictly enforce border control. The big immigration bill from 1986 (Simpson-Mazzoli) failed to prevent future crossings. Illegals were given temporary status which, following employment rules could be upgraded to citizenship. The bill was supposed to punish businesses that hired illegals but never did. So it basically just amounted to amnesty and not much else. 

When George W Bush tried the same thing in 2007 the attempt fell flat. Enough Americans didn’t want the amnesty portion to go through while the border enforcement stuff got purposely left out. Bush’s plan awarded the trophy before the race; it never stood a chance.

 There are too many unguarded spots and vast stretches of land where a wall, or barrier, or fence can work. Border patrol agents largely support building more fencing because it makes their job easier. We should trust their judgement on this.

   

Let’s talk about worker programs and visas after the border is secure, not before then.

Changing Colors

I finally finished with the painting project I meant to do this past summer. Actually “finished” isn’t quite right. I still need to hang the pictures and art. I’ll need some new ones as well since the blue doesn’t match some of the reds and browns I had up before. What is it about doing one big project that makes everything else seem incomplete? Suddenly the kitchen needs a new floor, cabinets and light fixtures. Don’t forget the laundry room and that ridiculous looking threshold leading out onto the deck. Painting at least is relatively cheap. A lot of home projects, even for DIY superstars, get expensive quick. Usually something needs to give, either that summer vacation to Yellowstone the new F150. The paint, brushes, tarps and tape set me back a little, but I’m not giving up much. 

 I decided a few days ago that I really need to do the ceiling. Only after looking at the newly colored walls does the top look unacceptable. It’s sparse with bits of white paint spread thinly, like an Oreo cookie with the inside eaten out. The texture isn’t exactly smooth or regular and I have no idea what the finish was supposed to be. I guess it’s somewhere between an eggshell and a satin but it’s too shiny to be a flat white. I decided I like the flat white on the trim. Especially with a shiny satin finish on the walls, the contrast from dull to bright is noticeable. Honestly, listen to me. I’m going on like a Home Depot paint pro, wearing an apron, gesturing toward the brushes and blathering about contrasting color. I repaint walls in just under a decade and I’m qualified to opine about pigments and shades. It took 6 months to find the right blues. It might look too much like the bedroom of an 8 year old boy but at least it’s done.

Over the last few nights I’ve come home from work and put in a few hours clearing furniture and taping off windows and door frames. Here’s what’s strange, I imagined I’d be exhausted after the extra work but I enjoyed it. Anytime I can work and listen to a podcast or put on a football game, it’s a successful day. It must be the way I’m wired. I like to check things off lists, not just physical lists (but yeah those too) the mental ones that keep tapping me on the shoulder and asking when I planned to get to it. The only tough thing with painting is the mess and the cleanup. No one likes it but unlike say, framing a shed, it doesn’t come with the hassle of measuring and cutting. Not to mention poor measuring, bad cutting and throwing tools at the unfinished shed. So yes, I see more painting and list checking in the future, less framing.

I see similarities between writing and home projects. Both are outside of my regular paid job but necessary for long term value. Writing is educational, it forces me to think critically and organize ideas under philosophical principles even if I don’t always understand them. I write some copy for money but mostly it’s for me. Having home projects is practically rewarding because I’m adding value to the house, in very real terms. Both teach skills that translate to money with enough effort.

I’ve written in different ways about making the most of my time, partly because I tend to waste it. I’m far too likely to blow off a few hours watching TV or reading. Nothing against resting, we all need it. That nagging voice to stop wasting time gets louder every year though. Sometimes just changing habits is enough to shake off the laziness, the boredom, the sluggishness. Rearrange the way in which daily routines play out.

 I realize I’m writing this just a few days after the New Year. It’s a coincidence really, then again maybe not. Like most Americans I’m conditioned to start thinking about ‘newness’ at this time of year. What goes, what improves, what begins, what ends?

For me it’s about purpose. Be purposeful in every task, every essay, every project. So I started with paint colors and finished with New Year’s resolutions. Happy New Year.

Versus: Mayo--Miracle Whip

Our country is divided right now. We argue about politics, religion, college football and cuisine. Mostly it doesn’t matter as much as we pretend but we like to go on record just the same. We need a team, a cause, an issue. In the spirit of picking sides and trashing the ‘other’ a classic head to head battle of jars emerges, mayo or Miracle Whip. One is completely right, the other egregiously wrong. Grab a knife and pick a side.

Any right thinking person knows that mayonnaise is the most essential ingredient for any sandwich. If you don’t know that you’re a monster. That refined creaminess and cool smooth texture peps up breads and meats. From Pastrami and Roast Beef on rye to turkey and ham on a Kaiser roll, nothing is more central. It’s perfect for mixing with tuna or chicken, hence salad dressing, or adding to a cheeseburger. 

Miracle Whip is trash. Too sweet, too tangy, too spicy, too much. It’s overpowering in a way that condiments shouldn’t be. Condiments are complements; that’s why the words are so close in sound (Just go with it). They support the primary pile of meats, cheeses, vegetables and mustard. Your spread shouldn’t be the strongest taste in the mix. You wouldn't let the bassist drown out the lead singer would you?

  

So what is the main difference anyway? Those who push ersatz mayonnaise, like Miracle Whip, want you to think it's 'basically' the same thing. After a little searching I found out the biggest difference is in the oil content of mayo. The FDA has standards for mayo that Miracle Whip doesn’t meet. Mayo is mostly oil with eggs (uncooked) some seasonings and salt. Miracle Whip doesn’t use the same amount of eggs and substitutes in corn starch and other mystery ingredients for a noticeable stronger taste. 

 Mayo is easy enough to make but I probably won’t. It’s unlikely I could improve on something that Kraft already perfected. Kraft's version of mayo is the best to me. Hellmann's is decent as well.

Miracle Whip is mostly water, a little oil with eggs and a concoction of sweeteners. It's almost half the calories of mayo which will probably entice some people. If I chose my food based solely on healthy properties and caloric content I’d be a miserable sap. I’d be healthier sure, but all that label reading guarantees avoiding foods I love.

Mayo has been around longer. Some sources I found traced it back a few hundred years ago to France. Miracle Whip is a creation from Kraft foods, which tried to boost sales in the early 1930s. They basically created a cheaper version of the good stuff. It debuted at the World’s Fair in Chicago 1933. Of course they both cost about the same now; it’s funny to think of mayonnaise as a hoity toity delicacy. Apparently in the Depression era it was.

 I imagine most people like whichever variety they were raised on as a kid. We seemed to have both at different times, or whichever was on sale that particular week. I had my share of both but started to prefer mayonnaise at some point. It’s tough to trace these things exactly. What I do know is I can’t substitute them anymore. They're just too different.

So to summarize: fans of mayonnaise are honest, selfless, good natured and understand fine dining. Miracle Whip devotees are sketchy, unloved and have no appreciation for quality.

It isn’t too late to switch to mayonnaise and see what you’ve missed.    

  

Killers of the Flower Moon

I finished reading the book “Killers of the flower Moon” recently. I always have trouble describing the type of format for this style. For a similar type book think “The Devil in the White City”. Amazon lists it as “Historical Fiction” because the research writes the story while imagining some of the middle parts. ‘Killers’ is part murder mystery and part meticulous research. Focused on the Osage Nation and the murders surrounding the once wealthy tribe members, it brings a lesser known period to life. 

 I was expecting a handful of murders or sad unsolved crimes from a forgotten era. The scale of the killings shocked me, as did their brazen nature. The author, David Grann, links bad federal policy and racist notions about the ‘red man’ to an abundance of cash rich Natives. Those combinations fuel the chaos and greed of a select few. These aren’t murders as much as massacres. In Osage county lives are cheap but "headrights" are like gold.

The Osage were quite rich after the discovery of oil on their land. They leased it to drillers and profited from the royalties oil brought in. This made a handful of them very rich. But due to crooked Federal laws placing a non-native (white) guardian in charge of their allotments, many were swindled. In many cases, native Osage land owners with full royalties on the mineral rights to their property couldn’t even decide what to do with their own money. The fraudulent nature of this whole setup attracts con artists. I’ll leave some of the scheming to the readers to discover. Those who live in and around Osage County in Oklahoma might be aware of the murderous period called the Reign of Terror, I was completely surprised.

The second part of the story is the FBI angle. You have to think of Oklahoma, and most Western states, as barely governable by the local authorities. Although genuine attempts to solve some of these egregious killings were made, they encountered too much resistance and often just gave up. The Bureau finally sent in a team and eventually unraveled some despicable cover ups and sinister plans. It took a long time and a lot of what most of us associate with FED tactics, using low level criminals to turn testimony, making deals and offering protection. J Edgar Hoover enlisted the help of a very capable former Texas Ranger named Tom White, to look into the killings. White was helped by some undercover agents living and working among the Osage.

I guess Martin Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio are making this into a movie. Should be fun.  

Running Update

I ran in the cold yesterday, haven't done that since the Army. 

My chest ached for most of day. I don’t know if it’s supposed to feel like I’m getting a cold, or if my body just isn’t used to the chill yet. The air was calm at around 30 degrees but carried an icy edge that stung a little at first. When I started out I didn’t know what to expect. A lot of times when going for a new jogging challenge the results are disappointing. A few weeks ago I set out to do the same run but because the wind was blowing hard I turned around. It was at least 10 degrees warmer then but the blustery conditions created a whole new level of problems.

There are still a lot of leaves scattered around and feeling them on my face is a bit like walking into a landscape crew blowing off a driveway. The dust makes it impossible to see and even with sunglasses covering my eyes the wind forces tiny particles around the lenses. I just figured it wasn’t worth it. Cold is one thing but wind is something entirely different.

Overall running in the colder weather is much easier for distance than those brutal July and August mornings. The exhaustion in summer time is almost entirely from the heat and humidity. In the fall and winter, the exhaustion isn’t as total. I’m learning to pace myself much better than I used to. When you train for time and keep the distance to less than 3 miles, you develop a pace that accommodates it-steady, fast, heavy. But by doubling and even tripling the distance, you learn how to preserve energy better and not get caught looking at the watch.

So I’ve learned how to run slower and regulate pace over the last year. Fast quick steps up hills and long strides on declines keeps me from overextending. It’s tough for me to run on treadmills and hope to get the same feeling. Treadmills are almost always more difficult for me, probably because it’s hard to alternate pace quickly and respond to hills. Not to mention, having calories, pace, distance and heart rate illuminated makes it impossible to think of anything else. One advantage of a longish run is being able to zone out a little mentally and not worry about the stats. Treadmill data is constant and unrelenting.

For me exercise has always meant either lifting weights or doing cardio, but rarely both in the same routine. Since I passed 40 years old recently, it makes more sense to combine the two. Light weights for core strength and resistance training to tighten up leg muscles round out my new routines. What’s the goal? Short term I’d like to do a half marathon. Long term I’d like to do a handful per year. At this point I don’t want to run a full 26.2 miles. I can’t say I never will, but for now a half is a good goal to shoot for. I’m not too far off either.

This might be the year that I join a local running group. I need the motivation.

"Life After Google" Review

Does George Gilder hate Google?

I’ll readily admit, this book was both illuminating and a little over my head. I understood the big picture stuff he talked about. The math and nitty gritty tech stuff was difficult but not enough to put down.

Google changed the world by offering the first and best search algorithm. You know that. What you may not know is that the philosophy of the company and the era they’ve created is not match for future technology. This might sound odd for a business currently building massive server farms to handle increasing loads of data. But according to Gilder, Google’s lack of security and Marxist vision of the world will be their undoing.

It’s precisely because Google doesn’t value security for its users and runs operations like a collective, making everything free, it alienates those who do value it. Most finance and health care companies have started moving the pertinent stuff offline. With major hacking stories popping up in the news constantly its clear consumers want something reliable, secure.

   

The problem most tech elites have, from Sergei Brin and Larry Page to Elon Musk and Ray Kurzweil, is their view that humanity will be surpassed by machines.

“The security system has broken down just as the computer elite have begun indulging the most fevered fantasies about the capabilities of their machines and issuing arrogant inanities about the comparative limits of their human customers.”

Artificial Intelligence (AI) machines are deterministic despite the leaps and advances in computing power and deep learning. In other words AI is just a machine with incredibly fast problem solving abilities that is limited by design. It can’t extend the boundaries of its design, it was created for a specific purpose. It can’t ‘think’ in the sense that people think. Artificial Intelligence condenses and processes information quicker than people do but is not ‘conscious’. Advances in chip technology or processing power can’t change that.

 Humans are uniquely creative because they have a Creator. Futurists fall into the same trap that intellectuals in other generations have, thinking their discoveries and inventions represent the end of advancement. This is where George’s “fevered fantasies” line comes from. Karl Marx believed the industrial revolution was it, the crowning achievement of human capability. Only thing to do, according to Marx, was distribute the wealth and proportion “…each according to his need.”

Like most of Gilder’s books this one is a prediction about the near future; it shouldn’t be taken as a schedule, only a prescription about the underlying problems with Big data and how the block chain represents a clean break from cloud computing. Instead of ‘stacking’ information in server farms, blockchains distribute the information throughout multiple computers. 

The internet currently requires multiple user names, passwords, pin IDs, secret questions and image verifications to prove you are you. This reflects the disaster with security across the web. While Google is building a giant supercomputer and feeding it knowledge from across the net, hackers are stealing massive amounts of user information and banking details. Companies like Yahoo and Equifax saw major breaches in just the last two years.

Bitcoin was the first (successful) cryptocurrency build on a distributed ledger system, or blockchain. The idea is to limit the amount of ‘coins’ to a specific amount and use it for payment to those who manage the system (mine). Bitcoin’s breakthrough is the genius of timestamping every transaction in the ledger for verifiable proof. It’s a technology that’s virtually impossible to hack because a change in one block (or hash) requires a change to all.

Some sectors with needed security are beginning to realize the value of blockchain to their business model. Healthcare is one such industry that prizes patient confidentiality enough to use a new technology for ease of use. Imagine having a key for an online profile that you controlled completely and giving permission to insurers, doctors, pharmacists to view your details, instead of logging in to theirs with an expired password or a forgotten image? With blockchain the patient controls the information and has proof for any transactions in the network.

George Gilder doesn’t step into the realm of theology, but it’s there in the ideas. He believes in the Creator, in some form, with a creative mind and problem solving abilities. Commerce between individuals is an extension of the talents we all have. 

‘Free’ is bad because it surpasses the price system and lets the maker off the hook. No longer is the maker responsible to fix flaws or tighten up security. Ever gotten a free gift, say a new lawnmower? Would you insist the person who gave it be responsible for servicing it, or fixing it when it broke down? Not a chance. This, according to Gilder, is what Google does with its products and services. It gives its technology away but doesn’t take responsibility for protecting personal information.

Blockchain technology restores some of the importance of personal data by giving it value. A lot of the promise from blockchain might be just noise instead of the revolutionary change in business and technology that Gilder believes it to be.

 Perhaps the vision of a distributed future where contracts and money are traded via the blockchain never materializes. We can’t know for sure. But he doesn’t believe anyone can bypass the natural laws of commerce for too long. That includes Google. 

Brexit (An American View)

I do the best I can with international news but sometimes their isn't a very good comparison in politics or culture. The only way to explain Aussie Rules Football to an American is by relating it to the NFL and explaining the differences. But that isn't quit right is it? The lost in translation effect can’t be avoided. So in the spirit of understanding only half pictures and half truths, here are some thoughts on Brexit.

What was it about?

The United Kingdom is (for now) a part of the European Union which acts like a government for member states, or most of Europe. It has a common market with a common currency and open borders for all countries in the zone. Countries can vote to leave if they like, but most stay, seeing their future under a common market as better than going it alone. Mostly because of immigration and fears of British sovereignty going the way of fox hunting, the voters said “enough!” Now comes the monumental challenge of cobbling together new trade deals; after all someone has to buy the stuff they make.

The deadline to put a deal together is March of next year. After two years sorting through details with the European Union, Theresa May, the prime minister, and company have a rough draft that goes to parliament this week. Apparently it’s pretty similar to the original deal they have now, without the critical voting rights.

What’s the best option?

Britain was faced with two paths after voting to leave the union. A hard break of all ties with the EU or a soft one that keeps most of the trade framework intact. They’ve opted for the soft version, requiring May to negotiate with the EU on a new pact. Conservatives in parliament wanted a hard Brexit; they would rather leave the EU without any agreement and try to negotiate individually with multiple countries. The soft Brexit feels like hedging a bit, hoping the angry legislators in Brussels don’t punish you with weak deals.

The EU was not happy with Brexit.

The problem is the people leading the negotiating would rather not be doing it at all. Theresa May (the Prime Minister) was a Remain vote, which means her motivations should be a little suspect. If I’m put in charge of a sales plan at work that I think is dumb, I’m not likely to give much effort. I’d also be happy if the whole plan collapsed of its own weight, because after all, “I told you so.” I don’t think she is sabotaging the plan but I do question her determination.

To Stay or to go?

The best argument against Brexit is exactly what May is concerned about, financial uncertainty. Untangling long established ties among banks, businesses and law firms is a scary thought. Would the new deals serve Britain’s interest, the EU’s or both? Would negotiators in Brussels accept any new trade deals?

 From their point of view, negotiating with a light touch sends a signal to other countries hoping to leave that the EU is a pushover. Obviously they want to avoid that.

The best argument for Brexit is the restoration of sovereignty. Most Remainers argued solely on an economic basis. Leaving the EU means charting their own course with no guarantees, and likely, a loss of market share for your business. I can’t imagine economics played too much into the thinking of Brexiters though. They took a look a look at the migrant crisis, and the free movement of Muslim immigrants all over Europe and said “No”. Germany brought in something like 800,000 (mostly Syrians) and regretted it almost immediately. That’s why Angela Merkel’s party lost seats in the last election. It’s the kind of un-democratic decision made by officials and not voters.

Part me is sympathetic to May. She wants to preserve as much of the old agreements as possible and prevent a lot of disruption sure to come with a hard break. Ministers keep quitting on her too, which tells me they’ll blame her for everything that goes bad.

I don’t know how the horse race political stuff works in the U.K. But I imagine the Tories didn’t want to be blamed by the country for a falling economy after a hard Brexit. A committed Brexiter like Michael Gove or Boris Johnson would have been a better choice than Theresa May. They would have held firm on the hard break.

If May gets her deal through Parliament, what will have been the point of the last two years? It’s the worst possible deal for ordinary Britons who felt strongly enough about the EU’s encroachment to vote themselves out. It’s essentially the same agreement without the voting rights member states are supposed to get. It makes a mockery of the original Brexit vote by using a work around.

Where to now?

Here is where this is similar to American: immigration. The Brexit vote turned on concerns about border security and immigration. They just didn’t trust the officials in Brussels to fix it. Why should they? Germany opened the gates to refugees in numbers that might be too large to integrate. And because of the free movement within the EU zones (Schengen Area) others are forced to deal with Merkel’s reckless decision.

   

I’am not sure who said it but I think it fits: if responsible politicians don’t deal with immigration, irresponsible ones will (paraphrase). Or maybe put another way, ignoring cultural issues at the expense of the economy leaves you with poor choices on both.