Will DOGE Actually Work?

 

DOGE Saves the Country, Or the Fiscal Floor Caves In

I’ve wanted to write something about DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) for a while. There is an underlying sense that I shouldn’t get too excited about it. I tell myself not to fall for it. You’re never going to watch the government cut its waste or spending by a significant amount. The spending rot is too deep. Best to wait for the floor to fall out from under you and rebuild the house. The termites have eaten through too much of it. Yes, it's a pessimistic view. I have a twinge of guilt every time I think about it. But remember, the staggering amount graft that is uncovered on a daily basis props up someone. Actually it’s propping up a whole lot of someone’s.

DOGE is what it looks like to attack the corruption in spending from the outside. It can’t happen from inside.

Inside Baseball

Back in 2010, Senators Alan Simpson (Wyoming) and Erskine Bowles (North Carolina) put together a committee to “study” how to reduce the debt. They correctly evaluated the problems and presented a plan. The plans were sensible but the political will wasn’t there. These commissions only ever serve to provide travel opportunities and a nice pay day for fortunate bureaucrats. Nothing actually gets cut. No one needs to do a year long study to figure this out. Blue ribbon commissions find information we already know and find a way to get paid from the process. It's a neat trick.

It’s impossibly hard from a political standpoint, much easier to pay everyone off with projects for their communities and sign off on another bloated budget. It’s why my ‘wait for the floor to cave in’ is an understandable response.

Outside Baseball

But if Trump is different and Elon is different, maybe there is hope. If nothing else, DOGE is a true outsider approach. No insiders were ever going to fix it. Mafia members occasionally rat on each other, but they also take on new identities, move to the heartland and take up farming. Exposing corruption is dangerous. Make no mistake, this is corruption. And to have such a serious group of men sharing the responsibility of taking it to the deep state is very encouraging. If you haven’t seen the interview on Fox News with Brett Bair I suggest you watch it. All of these men are accomplished in the private sector. They’ve all volunteered to help reorganize federal spending and show where the fraud and waste is. No surprises yet, it’s overwhelmingly fraud so far.

Defining Leadership

At no point during the interview did I think any of these guys were press hounds. They’re sober about the future of the country and patriotic enough to do something about it. Musk put a target on his back by supporting Trump after the Pennsylvania assassination attempt. That gave others the courage to do likewise and share some of the burden of being called Nazis or Fascist's or whatever. I’m much more confident after hearing from the team. It’s easy to be cynical about motives, but they seem to care deeply about the future of the country and how much has been stolen from future generations.

Musk recognized that this administration is serious about putting the country on a track to fiscal sanity again. No businessman wants to give voice to an untrustworthy president or give support where it won’t be reciprocated. It’s risky. It’s especially risky for Republican administrations because the press can ruin you. We’re seeing some of that with the bombing of his Tesla dealers and desecration of cars in parking lots. I’m sure he knew this kind of thing was possible. But he can rely on an administration that actually punishes crime and backs American business. 

The Twitter Takeover

Buying Twitter was a watershed moment for Elon Musk. He entered the political fray and if he had any illusions about an American left that just wanted free speech, he was quickly disabused of that notion.

He let a handful of journalists (Taibbi, Shellenberger) comb through Twitter’s databases. Matt Taibbi in particular showed how the federal government was silencing conservative voices through implicit threats. Twitter was basically the communication arm of the FBI. In a lot of ways, DODGE feels like a much larger version of the same idea. Expose fraud in the federal government and show how corruption works at scale. And what a scale it is? Twitter prepared him for this. But if Twitter was an on base single to right field, DOGE is a grand slam to win the game.

Discovering wasteful spending at the federal level isn’t a tough thing to do. The late Senator Coburn, Oklahoma’s own, used to release a Wastebook every few years on government waste. We knew about the bridges to nowhere and the silly research grants for video games studies. But no one was specifically targeted or held to account. The sense you get from reading them is irritation at the lack of oversight. You can almost hear the zany Benny Hill music playing in the background as the list of dumb spending is read aloud. The tone of the report though is ‘common guys, we can do better'. But Senators have to get reelected. They can scratch the surface and point in a direction, but they can’t name names. 

Nothing against Coburn, he was an honest man. But where he grabbed the low hanging fruit of waste, Musk is going for the jugular. 

Like Simpson and Bowles, real change happens from outside because it has to. 2025 is going to be a rocky year with a lot of naming of names if DOGE is anything like what it needs to be. It will all be for naught though if guilty parties aren’t charged and we don’t have a sensible plan for budgeting. Grifters that feed off the public teat should be punished severely, or America will be overrun with them.

Conclusion

I’m usually pessimistic about the attempt to reign in a federal system. But I’m optimistic for at least some big moves going forward. What does that look like? Can we actually reduce the fraud by a significant margin and half the budget? Will known fraudsters be held to account and serve as avatars for other, would be-con artists who would fleece the taxpayers? The relentless exposure is good news so far. Had Elon Musk done enough work to allow DOGE to function with a manager once he is gone? That day might come sooner than the May deadline.

Every political fight like this comes down to willpower. If not, we wait for the floor to give way and work on a rebuild plan.