Putin's New War and Motivations

 

So Russia started bombing targets in Ukraine last night. What does Putin want with Ukraine anyway?

 He’s always wanted to reestablish a sphere of influence among his neighbors the way the Soviet Union did. I think that’s the largest part of it. He made a bet that NATO wouldn’t stop him too. The way we left Afghanistan showed a lot of world leaders that we aren’t serious anymore. Leaving equipment and people behind in the time it takes to change the oil on a Humvee, was disgraceful.

 Putin saw that, Xi saw that.

I’ll admit right up front that I’m completely ignorant on surrounding events. Up to this point an invasion looked like a bluff, like maybe the Russians wanted some concession on Ukraine I thought. When it comes to information I’m more careful to make declarative statements about anything. We live in a time of upheaval and a lot of "news" is disinformation. 

But even the conservatives are a light on good information lately. Ted Cruz even called the January 6 incident at the Capitol a “terrorist attack”. They’re all for defending Ukraine against Russian aggression which is, I guess OK. Vladimir Putin is a thug, no argument from me. Maybe defending Ukraine with troops and sanctions and no fly zones or whatever ‘cease and desist’ methods we can create is necessary. But I’m not an automatic vote on another military exercise. Actually I’m a strong no right now, I’d need a serious change of heart and I don’t know who could offer it.

How relevant is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) right now? The wealthiest partner in Europe, Germany, is awaiting completion of a pipeline running through the Baltic Sea for much of its energy needs. It’s called Nordstream 2 and its purpose is to send Russian gas (Gazprom) to central Europe. So the gravest threat to European safety and sovereignty, Russia, is actively building pipelines for greater control? This doesn’t make sense from a strategic point of view. Either Russia isn’t quite as scary as advertised or Germany is really desperate.

Since the invasion Russia has been hit with sanctions, the pipeline might not go after all. Still, how did it get this far? Energy isn’t like cheap clothing and rubber tires, it’s a strategic commodity and whoever controls it controls your country. And yes, I’m fully aware that the China sells the US most of its consumer goods, electronics, steel and medicine. This isn’t a criticism of Germany as much as a way to put Russian power into context. How bad are they really if you’re letting them control such a crucial engine of your economy? Germany used to get a significant part of its energy needs from nuclear power, which makes sense. It’s cheap and clean.

But the greens are ruining Germany. I don’t mean the party necessarily but in the way we’ve all bought into climate change and the notion that we can reverse it by being poor. Or better yet, lower the world temperature by getting rid of fossil fuels. You know who doesn’t believe it? Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. Oh sure they’ll go to these ridiculous summits (Paris) and talk about how they’re cleaning up coal and restricting fossil fuels. They’ll even present a full color map outline with timelines, who doesn’t love timelines? And promise to reduce carbon. It’s what the West does anyway. They promise to reverse climate change knowing the benchmarks are irrelevant. The agreement is all that matters.

 Nuclear power produces more than enough and it’s carbon free which is usually the chief gripe from the greens. But after the Fukushima Daiichi core reactor meltdown in 2011 they decided to phase them out quicker. The public largely supports it I guess too. But from a green point of view they’ve just traded a carbon free technology for a heavy carbon one.

France is better positioned. Nuclear power still supplies 70% of the country’s grids. They have to import Uranium to fuel them, creating a not so ideal dependence on others, but it’s better than Germany. I recognize both countries and their predicament with regard to energy. These plans for windmills and solar power are a scam. Sure they produce a little power but it’s a long way off from the consistency of gas. And a supposedly adversarial country is set to supply our biggest allies with it.

For now at least I’m against another NATO effort. Let Ukraine make a deal with Putin. I think of Ukraine the way I think of Cuba on the verge of a takeover by Castro, another thug. Havana was a playland for Mafia types until Castro took all their interests and made them nacional.

A much darker thought comes to mind as well. What if Western elites (like Hunter Biden) have something to hide in Ukraine? When you have carte blanche to play around in a corrupt nation you might do some illegal things. I also remember Trump sending Rudy Giuliani over there to find a the missing DNC server. Is it actually there or is this just a conspiracy? I think we might find out soon.  

Pray for the people of Ukraine.