The New Plan for Taiwan

 

An effort is underway to shore up support for the island Republic of Taiwan. The democratic West wants to make China realize that an attack would be costly. How much it would cost is up for debate.

 Last month some senators from France made an official visit, this month the European parliament did the same. Just yesterday some Republican lawmakers make the trip as well. They took a military aircraft from Manilla. In response to this 'disrespect' the Chinese navy sent a readiness patrol near the straits. It’s a show of force, an overwhelming demonstration of might.

China's been doing this with some regularity since 2020. In October of this year they flew 196 sorties around the island, a significant uptick since Trump left office. They flew a total of 320 sorties for all of last year. Military experts call this tactic “gray zone”. By flying close enough to Taiwan’s airspace but not engaging, they are playing a psychological game.

When this happens every day you either get used to it or lose your mind.

This uptick in sorties increases the chance of an incident from both sides. China might appreciate the chance to attack the island with everything they have. Maybe they’re hoping for an incident. In this swirling conflict just waiting to kick off, what does the US and Europe do? How do they gently apply pressure on the CCP while not letting Xi Jinping (Chairman of China) believe war with the US and Europe is imminent?

I think they’re doing it by flaunting China’s decrees and visiting Taiwan anyway.  

The one thing Beijing insists on is absolute authority over Taiwan. It’s why any country that has official relations with Taiwan is cut off diplomatically from Beijing. In the CCP’s opinion, it’s just another province that’s gone rogue not a separate country with an ambassador, an embassy and a flag. Only a handful of countries actually recognize Taiwan and most are small nations themselves like Belize and Haiti.

By risking Beijing’s ire and visiting the island they hope to send a signal to the CCP that they stand with Taiwan. They probably hope to make the Chinese think that they will be giving up a lot in the form of markets with an attack.

I have no idea if this will work but it’s worth a try. It’s similar to standing up to a bully by showing up in support of the weakling. It’s much better to find a larger bully and enlist him on your side. But that isn’t an option. So you do what you can with gestures.

 You aren’t sending transport planes full of soldiers. That would be more overt and dangerous. You are matching Beijing’s bravado with bravado and reminding them that Taiwan has friends.

Don’t think Xi Jinping hasn’t considered the cost of a full scale invasion. But what is the cost? The CCP would love to get their hands on the Taiwan’s leaders and imprison them for their ‘rebellion’. Until now that equation had to take into account the might of the United States and her expansive navy. The navy is of course still there but in the last 10 years the Chinese have strengthened their position in the South China Sea. They’ve drudged up sand bars and built make shift military bases in strategic spots.

It’s given them positions from which to patrol and attack enemies. It was much easier for the US to guard the oceans with battleships and cruisers when no one else had them. It’s a different calculus when the enemy has a respectable navy.

Expect to see more ‘unofficial’ visits from foreign dignitaries in the upcoming months.

 The idea is to get Beijing to reconsider an attack by showing how much they stand to lose. I don’t imagine any western power goes to war over Taiwan. But an incident in which Beijing could claim to be the victim would give democratic countries an excuse to ignore the whole problem. Imagine Taiwan’s air defense fires off a rocket at a passing bomber sparking a war. China could claim they were attacked. It’s weak I know, but it might be enough for western powers (like the US) to stay out of it.

The best situation for Taiwan is to keep a steady stream of visitors from the West. The only leverage they really have is making China believe an attack would force a break with the West. That would be devastating economically.