Death, Taxes and Angry College Football Fans

Benjamin Franklin once said “…nothing can be said to be certain except death and taxes.” If he were alive today he would probably include fan anger over college football rankings. The limited number of slots in the playoffs practically guarantee an surge of 'righteous' anger from a neglected team. There are 5 power conferences that contain the best teams. The SEC, the ACC, the Big Ten, the Pac 10 and the Big 12. Additionally, the few games played each season means that analysts have to determine the best teams from a small sample. The number of variables considered when establishing a teams’ credentials can be technical. Strength of schedule, margin of victory, road wins against top opponents, and something called the ‘eye test’ are just some of the variables the selection group considers when assigning slots.

The eye test is exactly what it sounds like. How does this team actually look on the field? Do they execute plays and hold up under pressure? Do they beat themselves with dumb penalties and turnovers? Do their skill position players have speed? Does the defense shut down high caliber opponents? The eye test gets criticized by stat wonks who love to spreadsheets showing how Middle Tennessee State gets great production, but who cares. The big conferences matter. Stats are one measure of progress but football fans know a good team when they see one. A good team has NFL talent and performs every week. Not that they never lose but they keep loses to a minimum and win on the road. Teams like Alabama and Georgia are great, Illinois and Purdue are not (sadly).

Good stats in football filter out ‘garbage time’ numbers. Those extra 65 yards your team’s running back got on a night when they were played North Eastern Delaware A&M, that’s garbage time. Numbers and measurables can explain a lot but they don’t help with the eye test. I’ll always take the eye test over almost any other measure of tracked skill. Football talent gravitates toward certain schools and we already know which ones they are. They’re called the power 5 for a reason. A quarterback who averages 300 yards passing per game at Ohio State gets more attention than one at Montana Tech. This isn’t news.

I watched Ohio State beat Wisconsin last night and one thing was clear from the start, Ohio had much better athletes. The fact that Wisconsin only lost by 7 was an indication that crowd noise and intensity of the moment play an outsized factor in the college game. These are kids after all, average age is probably 21 or so. They get nervous and make mistakes but the really talented teams like OSU can make a few and usually finish with a win. In an outdoor stadium with less noise Ohio should have run Wisconsin off the field. I did hope the Badgers could pull off a miracle come back but their offense looked slow footed and not used to having to throw to get out of trouble. Badgers run first, always. 

The Big Ten conference game last night was a default play in for Wisconsin and a little more complicated for the Ohio State. They had a chance with a win but it wasn’t enough. The committee decided against them. Buckeyes have 2 loses for the season after all. That’s 1 more than any playoff team should have.

The controversy was over who gets the open slot for the playoffs, only 4 are allowed after all. The teams announced just a few hours ago, Oklahoma, Georgia, Clemson, Alabama. Bama was the wild card since they didn’t play for a conference championship but still managed a 1 loss season. The loss was to Auburn who was a top ranked team at the time. I don’t like to criticize the committee, they have a lot to consider. But putting two teams from the same conference in the playoffs is a sketchy move. I imagine they included the Tide because of their quality wins and 1 loss season. The alternative would have been Ohio State with two losses and a conference championship. If they put the Buckeyes in it opens the door for questions about why they didn’t include the USC Trojans, who basically had the same season. 

Buckeye fans will complain for sure. Every year some team gets left out that probably deserved to be included. With the limited spots it is unavoidable. Most fans will want to expand the field to include 8 teams. For now though there isn’t enough time or games in the season without seriously affecting academics (don’t laugh). That’s the official reason at least from the NCAA for keeping the 4 team playoff. I imagine it will get to that point in the near future. The playoffs should be fun though.