Running Update 2

I haven’t done a running blog in a while and I’m fresh out of ideas so here it goes.

 I’ve stepped up my days from 2 per week to 3. My brother has started running with me too, which is nice because it’s a little easier to get through fatigue when another person pushes you. I’ve always had this rule about not stopping during a run. I’ll slow down to catch my breath but I don’t stop. It’s a throwback mentality to my Army days. With him we stop for brief stretches and then go again. Actually it helps quite a bit. It seems to give me more energy toward the end. I’m not resistant to it anymore.

 For at least 2 days per week we try to put in 6 miles once and 3 to 4 miles the rest of the time. The warmer temperatures mean going out after 10:00 a.m. means dealing with some serious heat (not quiet there) and sweat. You just can’t run as far or as fast when the heat gets above 80. Really above 70 degrees cuts into the overall distance because I get winded and struggle to catch my breath.

One thing that hasn’t changed is how much the first half mile really hurts. It’s a physical pain but plays out like a mental one. My legs beg me to quit, resisting every attempt to move quicker. It’s not an indication of how the rest of the run will play out either. Some days I never feel better and 3 miles grinds on like it’s 9. Other days I feel fresh and strong after an even long run. The first 5 minutes or so is basically awful every time.

It’s time to sign up for a proper half marathon. I’m confident I can get there by the fall and do the ever popular Route 66 Marathon. If something comes along before that I’ll consider it too. The problem is the money. Not that I can’t afford to put down $80 for a slot but do I really want to? Do I need to fork over money just to do something I could do on my own? But people who do these runs tell me they’re a lot of fun. It’s something to shoot for, the distance at least, so I’ll start looking.

I’ve looked at some training programs online that break down across 14 or 15 weeks. The idea is to be ready to run 13.1 miles in an exact time frame. For me the time is secondary to just finishing the thing. I’ll worry about time later. First I need to make sure I can go the distance. My own half assed program has already added twice the number of miles to my old distance. By adding an extra day and using at least one day for a longish run (7-9) I should be there by the end of summer.

I might look for a race before that and see if the times fit my schedule. Depending on how my progress goes I might shoot for 4 days a week instead of 3. 

For now 3 is enough. It's fun to eclipse old benchmarks.

Vigilantism: Good, Bad or Ugly

Why do we love superhero vigilantes?

 I don’t mean real ones. Real ones get arrested for monitoring police scanners while in full Batman costume. I like the fictional ones like Jack Reacher and Paul Kersey, the Charles Bronson character in Deathwish. Both operate outside the law but with different motivations. Reacher is a former MP who puts things right one small town at a time, his motivation pure. He is a moral actor, a hero for the downtrodden. Kersey is a product of anger and a deep need to get even because of a lawless system that protects criminals. An unjust and corrupt legal process created him. Kersey seeks vengeance, Reacher seeks justice. Both are extensions of our own need to pursue right and settle scores.

Batman is the standard for fictional vigilante with the least likely chance of pulling it off.  Can you imagine a masked man with a cape actually storming through cities and punching out criminals? Even in the best case scenario bystanders would be shot or run over. There is an opening scene in the Dark Knight where Batman impersonators try to take out actual villains. It doesn’t go well. They use shotguns and get beat up by mafia thugs. As funny as that scene was it felt like Christopher Nolan was saying something about our human desire for justice, if lack of ability and means.

Don’t say vigilantism doesn’t work, it depends on what flavor you’re describing. In going after large criminal enterprises it’s impossible to work alone. That’s why fiction is the best vehicle for vigilante justice. Countries with weak central governments (Philippines, Columbia, Sri Lanka) find themselves overrun with powerful criminal enterprises and no hope of containing the scourge. Often their only hope of protecting citizens is through private armies. Without proper oversight they can go too far with violence, operating in a vacuum, accountable to no one.

Defending small communities from rioters is easier because the objective is very specific, protect the house. During the Los Angeles riots in 1992 Korean American shop owners formed loose alliances to protect their properties against looting. Over 2000 Korean owned shops in South L.A. suffered some kind of damage from looters (officially) angry over the Rodney King verdict. But whenever looting happens you can count on a significant portion of people just taking advantage of the chaos to get some free stuff. If your memory is a little fuzzy about this incident, click here. Hoping to keep the damage limited Koreans armed up and started patrolling shops and coordinating with others to protect their livelihoods’.

 If African Americans had an animus toward law enforcement, Koreans had acquired it after the riots. The police basically left them to fend for themselves. Cops became persona non grata in the dangerous weeks following the Rodney King verdict.

Vigilantism is ugly when shot through with racism however. The Ku Klux Klan in the 1920s attacked Blacks and immigrants, labor leaders and Catholics and Jews. But the original post war Klan was far more concerned with keeping Black Americans in line through violence and intimidation. The resurrected Klan of the twenties found broad appeal in a lot of northern states like Ohio and Indiana. Its violence and corruption eventually ruined it as a mainstream vigilante group. Klan members were generally law abiding citizens with deep seated hatred toward any ‘immoral’ groups of people. They acted outside the law through lynching and intimidation campaigns. Membership in the Klan was dressed up in Christian language but rotten at the core.

The early Klan that popped up in the South during Reconstruction received aid from resentful white cops and judges.  It doesn’t qualify as vigilante in the way that John Brown’s raid on Harpers Ferry did 10 years prior. Brown resisted the established laws because they permitted slavery. He took up arms against the federal government as a ‘righteous’ act. His vigilantism is closer to terrorism despite the righteous cause. An armed raid on a federal weapons facility to start a slave insurrection counts as rebellion. From a historical point of view, Brown’s raid gets better treatment today than it did even 50 years ago. Slavery being a stain on the country’s history, Brown’s abolitionist sentiment won the argument with the preservation of the Union.

The point is vigilantism isn’t just one thing. It isn’t always reactions to unfair laws or a corrupt system. It isn’t always concerned with settling scores. It can be rooted in hatred and have official support or it can be rooted in security and have official support.

President Duterte in the Philippines takes the most aggressive approach to policing which seems necessary in a lawless country. The Philippines has the highest rate of murder in South East Asia, since at least 2014. He gives police officers shoot to kill orders when confronting drug dealers, some 20,000 deaths have occurred. Polls show the citizens appreciate his hard approach to crime by about 70 percent favorable. The numbers speak for themselves, most crime statistics (rape, murder) have fallen by over 20 percent across the board for that country. Deputizing thousands police and telling them to kill drug dealers is an obvious slippery slope. But concern with civil rights for drug gangs and criminals is misplaced. Law abiding citizens deserve better and if governments don’t provide it, they find it elsewhere.

When basic security is non-existent and gangs kill women and children, It might take a private army to put things right. I’m not advocating for it as much as pointing to very real consequences of not dealing with violence through the normal legal process. New York City was a rough place in the 70’s and 80’s. But homicides and robberies (almost all major crime stats) dropped in the 90’s due to heavy police presence and a crack-down on crime everywhere. Civil libertarians complain about the ‘stop and frisk’ policies but the difference is clear. New York decided to establish security first, the right move. Security comes before everything else, without it you don’t get culture or liberty.

I think the reason we write books and film movies like Death Wish or the Christopher Nolan Dark Knight Batman series is that people want a sense of law and order deep down. We desire justice; it’s why we are so upset when drunk drivers kill the innocent or a gang war spills into a neighborhood. At a fundamental level we understand the importance of a moral society rooted in justice. My hope is that vigilante justice of the movie variety stays fictional and law enforcement gets it right everywhere. They’ll make mistakes but if people think the police and courts are a force for ill, violence will surge again. Better to get security right protecting the most vulnerable first.  

Night Creatures

I left for work yesterday with the pounding rain soaking me before I got my car door unlocked. I looked out my windshield and noticed a dead animal catching a full dose of rainfall. I couldn’t tell what kind of critter it was. I guessed a kitten but thought it might be a rat or opossum. I sincerely hoped it wasn’t a rat that close to the house. I never got closer than 20 feet or so and it clearly wasn’t going anywhere. I decided I’d dig a hole and throw it in when I got back from work, whatever it was. Luckily the temperature never got above 60 degrees. Everyone knows what a hot steamy afternoon can do to an animal carcass.

As I drove up my driveway after work I noticed a fur ball standing up and licking itself, fully alive. I could see it better this time, a raccoon, a very young one too. Clearly injured and unable to move even a little bit as I approached. He gave a type of whine steady and fearful as I got closer and closer. It was obvious he wanted to move but some unseen wound kept him from it. I left him there and went inside. Raccoons are basically rats without the shriek factor, they can be cute. But they do eat trash and carry disease. OK they don’t live in sewers but they are a nuisance. I’m pretty sure they get in the attic too. Despite all of that I couldn’t kill him. Loose dogs or cats might though.

My neighborhood is the like the Gotham City of the animal world at night. Cats in roving gangs terrorize the streets and beat up any creature not at home after dark. They look for wounded ones especially. Birds that can’t fly and squirrels with a limp. I’ve seen both in my yard. This is the first raccoon though. I found a young rabbit with a bum hind leg who managed to escape but paid a price. They go to war with other cats from nearby streets. They wake me up with their fights and blood curdling hisses. They run across wooden fences and tease sleeping dogs who wake up and bark for hours, so irritated are they. I tolerate the cats because they keep away mice and rats, opossums and yes raccoons.

Why should I help this one raccoon out then?

I could have taken the shovel and ended his painful existence. Maybe I should have. I don’t see him making it through the night. He made a few desperate attempts to scale the big maple in the front yard, which I’m pretty sure he fell from in the first place.  Here is my theory: he moved around gingerly on the branches trying to gain footing in the downpour. He slipped and fell knocking himself unconscious or nearly so. We are talking about a 30 foot fall. At some point during the day he comes to but is in a lot of pain and pretty loopy. I walked right up to him and he hardly moved. That's how I got the picture. Some stray cats spotted him once the sun went down that night. He panicked and tried to climb the tree for safety but just didn’t have the juice in his legs. He was reduced to dragging his hind quarters and yelping like a lamb seeing a wolf in the distance. The cats never came in the yard; I made sure.

I went to work this morning again and glanced over to see signs of life from the raccoon. He was down near the base of the tree just like yesterday. If my theory about the family living in the tree is correct they should have gotten him by now. I was starting to feel like I should do something. But this is essentially a rodent we’re talking about, a baby one. If this were a rat I would have killed it no question. Raccoons are kind of grey on the good versus evil scale. It’s not like I’m keeping chickens in the yard. So I asked coworkers around the office. 'What would you do' type stuff. Do people actually care for injured raccoons? If so do they pick them up because I don’t want to take this thing for a ride in my car. One woman at work gave me a number of someone who either runs a shelter or knows someone who could take it. I wasn’t clear on the details but I promised if it was still around when I got back home I’d give her a call and we could work out the details. I still held out hope that the mother was around.

He wasn’t there when I got back tonight. I’m hoping he made another shot at the tree and scaled it this time. Or that he managed to limp away to a safer spot. But nature is pretty unforgiving and  he was in rough shape. There is always the chance a neighbor saw him and patched him up or called a wild shelter. Someone better than me no doubt.

Black Sox and Gambling

One film and one quote come to mind about 1919 White Sox. The 1988 movie Eight Men Out and Hyman Roth’s deadpan line from the Godfather II. “I’ve loved baseball ever since Arnold Rothstein fixed the World Series in 1919”.

It’s been almost a hundred years since the infamous ‘Black Sox’ lost to the Reds in the series due to gambling debts they owed to mobs in the country. A lot of people today consider this time in baseball to be a watershed moment, a loss of innocence for a clean sport. And with gambling essentially legalized (or nearly) will we have this problem again. How ‘clean’ was baseball before the Black Sox debacle brought in a commissioner? Did the owners deserve the negative publicity because they didn't pay their players a decent wage?

Baseball might have considered itself a gentlemen's game, but it was too disorganized to keep a tight lid on bad apples. Cubs and Phillies were caught cheating during a regular season game the year after the Sox lost to the Reds. Largely because of that a grand jury convened to investigate the White Sox loss in the Series. If nothing else the owners of the clubs couldn’t have fans thinking the worst about their game.

Professional baseball wasn’t lucrative for the players in the twenties like it is today. Players scrapped for wages the way newsboys hustled to sell dailies on the corner. Until 1918, World Series teams were paid according to ticket sales. After that year they were given a flat rate. They made less money than they would have under the old policy. It’s doubtful that less money for the World Series was the impetus for taking a dive.

I never read Eliot Asinof’s book Eight Men Out but I did see the movie with John Cusack and D.B Sweeny. The White Sox owner Charley Comiskey was widely regarded as very cheap, even requiring players to pay for their own laundry for the uniforms.  

The stuff about ‘commie’ being tight was true, but he wasn’t much different from every other owner. In the movie he is basically ‘scrooge’ with a couple of players doing their best Bob Cratchit.

From NPR:

"Realitydiverges from the Eight Men Out book and movie several times.  Pomrenke [historian] said a story about the Sox owner Charles Comiskey maneuvering to avoid paying pitcher Eddie Cicotte a bonus is false.  And there was a fabricated tale of a hit man approaching pitcher Lefty Williams on the eve of the final game of the series to threaten him."

Cicotte's bonus, from the movie, was supposedly $10,000 for winning 30 games during the regular season. Cicotte won 29 and went to beg Comisky for the bonus anyway. In true miserly fashion commie tells him the deal was 30 and shoos him off.

 The story isn’t true but by most accounts the Sox had a lot of guys who relished the chance to earn a few bucks by fixing the game. A handful of guys in any age will conspire to cheat and think nothing of it, fair wages or not. The rest will avoid it because the risk of getting caught is too high or their standards prevent that kind of behavior. Some will fall in the middle, not wanting to disrupt the cheaters plans but not taking bribes or throwing the game. Buck Weaver (John Cusack) falls into the last category; he continued to try to clear his name years after getting tossed out of the sport he loved. His is the worst position, moral cowardice. The guys who never cheated or new about the scheme have their dignity and can still make money from the sport. The cheats can’t play but probably didn’t have much regard for the game anyway.

The players were found not guilty in court despite three of them (Jackson, Cicotte, Lefty) signing confessions admitting the deed. It seems like no one wanted it to be true.

Betting on sports is now legal in most states after the Supreme Court (last year) essentially made it a states’ right issue. That’s probably the right decision. States are better at controlling gaming, but I'm not crazy about adding another vice for people to get hooked on. One argument in favor of legalized gambling is that it brings all the honest betting to light. It keeps away the underground bookie, in other words. I don’t think that's true. People go to bookies because they can bet without having the money in hand. That doesn't change with legalization.

More betting and more money being thrown around increases the odds (no pun intended) of cheating. Probably not throwing an entire game or series, but shaving points and covering spreads. People bet on everything. You can bet to see how many 3 pointers some college basketball player will take. That’s much easier to fix.  

  

Betting is the game when gamblers are involved. We watch games differently when we have something at stake. I hope we don’t lose our thrill for pure sports. Keep guys like Hyman Roth at an arms length. 

Focus on Easter

Focus on the task at hand. It’s always been a sort of plan of mine, an ideal to live by. Block out the distraction and forge ahead. This is true for work mostly but it bleeds into my personal affairs. When I sit down to write I have to close out my browser or I’ll waste time on Facebook and Youtube. Tasks aren’t smooth and plans get disrupted constantly. Like most people I tend to waste time on trivial things. Christians need reminding, frequently, that people all around us need help. Easter is perfect for such reminding. Easter recognizes the risen Savior, the eternal promise fulfilled, hope for mankind. 

In the gospel of Luke the Angel tells Mary “Why do you seek the living among the dead?” This was Sunday morning, when Mary went to visit the Lord’s tomb and found the stone rolled away. We can almost sense a “What next?” aspect to this surprising news. We can even ask ourselves today if what we are seeking has lasting value.   

 Am I seeking life where it doesn’t exist? What regrets keep me from fully pursuing truth and purpose? Am I spending too much time with worthless pursuits? Not inherently evil plans but selfish distractions and empty victories. Do I put myself first in all things? 

By “life” I mean eternal, purposeful steps that lead others to truth and meaning. I don’t believe anyone can really pursue eternal 'good' unless Christ has changed their heart. There are countless examples of humans all over lifting up others through education or jobs, food and general welfare. Warren Buffet alone is responsible for incredible charity in both the US and around the world. The ability to change a heart isn’t possible through charity though. Only through surrender to Christ does a heart change.   

People everywhere seek happiness. We seek power, truth, pleasure and meaning. Often we need to rebuild our priorities from the ground up. It all gets to be too much. Stress and disappointment eat away at our soul and we forget about the larger picture in life. Or we just waste away assuming our past mistakes or victim status determine our future.

There is a great picture of God's grace from John 21:15 when Peter (Simon) sees the Lord after his Resurrection. The last time they saw each other Peter vehemently rejected even knowing Jesus. He did this on 3 separate occasions. Most of us fail the first time we’re squeezed. Jesus could drill Peter with talk of betrayal, shake his head in disgust. He zeroed in on Peter's regret and urged him to move forward instead.

So when they had eaten breakfast, Jesus said to Simon Peter, “Simon, son of Jonah, do you love Me more than these? He said to Him, “Yes, Lord; You know that I love You.” He said to him, “Feed My lambs.”

He asked this of Peter 3 times, removing the burden from Peter’s mind and giving him a task. "Feed my lambs".

Why do you seek the living among the dead?

 For us it’s a cautious warning, don’t waste time with traditions of men. Don’t waste time regretting past decisions. Forget how you were raised, the people you hurt and the ones who hurt you. People everywhere need to understand the eternal. You must tell them. Tombs are for the dead. He is not here; He lives! Go and find them. In the short time between the Lord’s reappearance and his transfiguration into heaven He emphasized the ‘gospel’. “Go into all the world and preach the gospel…” (NIV)

Meaning and purpose and value aren’t found in the ‘dead’ things in life.

   

Easter is a reset for life. It’s a little like New Year’s Day but with an eternal purpose, a new hope. How can a 2000 year old story be a “new” hope? Easy. Death was defeated for all time for anyone who believes, a superhero story written by a divine author. One who loved His audience so much He wrote His own Son into it. 

So don’t seek the living among the dead. Look for the eternal purpose in every action and leave the past behind. We can now. The Savior is risen!

Papers For Sale

Students pay big for college level essays. Essay mills aren't confined to just higher education but the ‘importance’ of getting into universities drives much of the cottage industry around essay writing. Both buyer and contractor are guilty if the writing is meant for a classroom assignment. Cheating on tests and papers comes in different forms but most people still know that paying for work and calling it your own is wrong.

Plagiarism comes in different forms. One way is to make up quotes, attribute it them Abe Lincoln and select a random history book for the bibliography. This is nearly impossible today because you need to document your sources. Sources that can be easily checked with a google search in most cases. A less blatant form of plagiarism is when an idea isn’t attributed to its original creator or original source. It’s more common because with research comes the mixing and melding of ideas. When you assume a particular line of thinking is common knowledge and don’t properly cite, it’s an understandable mistake. But it’s still wrong.

Most of us have at been tempted to use a paper that someone else turned in for a grade in a different class. Change the title and the author name (hopefully) and present it to the professor with a sleepy look in your eyes. It’s tougher to do this than it used to be, especially if you buy one from a website selling papers with subjects on everything from 'human anatomy' to 'farming practices in ancient Mesopotamia'. The software catches subjects and themes that have been used before. My favorite story is about a student submitting an essay they bought from a website with the original title still on it, something like “Web Order Number 254”.  I imagine professors have some type of shared database that scans across all disciplines. Maybe they just use Goggle. Either way it’s tough to get around it and the downside to getting caught is steep, expulsion.

Some writers make a living doing work for wealthy clients. Vice has a great article here from a freelance writer who does all the typical nonsense blue chip schools want to see before they admit kids. From admissions papers to reflection articles about how some particular art trip made them feel. Apparently this is a real problem for Korean and Chinese students in particular. For anyone who speaks English as a second language, the requirements for processing and getting up to standard are extremely difficult. It’s no excuse for cheating of course, but it does suggest a handful of undergrads probably aren’t cut out for the rigors of a top notch school. If the recent scandal with the Hollywood actors caught buying scholarships proves anything, it's that Americans are likely to use shortcuts as internationals.  

It’s easy to point at wealthy elites who pay to get around roadblocks, but the writer taking their money has no right to do so. Is the crooked cop taking bribes any better than the gangster who pays them? He’s basically saying I can’t believe how corruptible the system is that I profit from; I think you’re scum, are you hiring?

 I had an experience in college during my second year where my own ethics were tested. I was friendly with one of the athletes in my class, a foreigner on a sports scholarship. It was one of those requirements that everyone in the major had to take. He shared notes with me on a quiz I’d missed so I could study it before the final. Here is the rub. He did me a favor because I wouldn’t have known what to study otherwise.  Later that same year he offered me a $100 to do an assignment that he couldn’t finish, a paper of some kind. He needed to get back home (he said). I don’t remember the reason. I refused to do it and he asked for a recommendation. I told him I thought it was cheating and I wouldn’t help. I’m sure I was careful with my words but he got the message. He assumed that his helping me with the quiz constituted a quid pro quo. What the hell bud, I help you out of a jam and you call me a cheat? He never said that but it’s the feeling I got. 

For all the different ways people bend rules or fudge numbers, most things are black and white. The grey is the unusual, the rarity, the one off. Cheating might be a sliding scale, an orders of magnitude problem, but most of us understand when something is wrong. Here is a test for students if you aren’t sure, tell someone what you are considering. Tell a whole lot of people, friends, other teachers. Take an informal poll. If the idea of letting anyone else know what you are up too feels like it would ruin it, it’s probably cheating.

Baseball's Creeping Math Problem

I started reading Smart Baseball  by Keith Law, about the nature of player evaluation in baseball. Keith works with teams to evaluate performance and help big league teams win more. He’s loves numbers and comparisons and telling us how little we understand the game. He comes off a little stuffy with his 'well actually' deep dives into historic players and old statistical measurements. He’s mostly good natured though, and it’s hard not be convinced that these newer sabermetric figures are the most efficient ways to compile stats. 

I’m a bit old fashioned on sports, I enjoy the sport first and consider the numbers second. Mostly I don’t think about them. I don’t gamble or play fantasy baseball so individual stats are important as a measuring stick for historical comparison and salary. I follow teams and then players. I realize having statistically better players means you team is more likely to win, but it doesn’t mean I want to slice numbers thinner than a deli counter prosciutto. Smart Baseball isn’t a book full of cheery anecdotes and life lessons from a former executive. It’s more like a textbook, informational and straightforward.

 The thesis is really this: as a measure of value to a team, the old statistics should be phased out. If the purpose is for managers, owners, scouts and sportswriters to assign values to players, sabermetrics are perfect. The data says so at least. I think at least some portion of this is slick graphs and quirky player FYIs. But I’m willing to listen. Baseball elders did the best they knew how with available data at the time. We watch a more precise game now. Everything is tracked and nerds create new ways to map player contributions.

The much criticized statistics (batting average, RBI) at least had broad appeal. Fans and scouts knew how to score players and assign value. Newer stats like WAR (wins above replacement) and wOBA (weighted on base average) are certainly more precise but, for now, don’t have broad appeal.

 A guy named Bill James created efficient measures of performance in the late 70s. We call them sabermetrics and most clubs have come around to his way of thinking. Acceptance takes time though and just because someone comes up with a brilliant system doesn’t mean everyone will be on board. Reluctance to change doesn’t equate to stupidity or arrogance, it just means this ‘thing’ needs more time.

Sabermetrics provide value where no one knew to look before. But they risk becoming an end to themselves unless the baseball continues to draw sharp lines around their product. They should allow changes to the game on the margins and phase everything in slowly. The NFL created additional problems by trying to redefine things like catches, holding and pass interference. The multiple camera angles create the need for more precise rules on those very things we are trying to determine. It’s a vicious cycle and not one that gets resolved easy.

The MLB is a slow moving body, like an Alaskan glacier or the U.S. Senate. This is a good thing. It ensures consistency. If it lets the stats wonks change everything we track, it won’t be long before the fun is gone. Mangers will manage purely on numbers and forget how to take chances. Players won’t take chances at the plate on a first pitch strike if the percentages are bad. It could be a lab experiment, a test between each team’s mathematical models. Too boring for average fans.

 Every team needs wins. Wins come from runs. Runs come from more opportunities to score. Yes, I realize I’m summarizing the Jonah Hill explainer from Moneyball but stay with me. By valuing certain aspects of the game over others (OBP over AVG) clubs can scoop up wins they might not otherwise have gotten using traditional measures of performance. Moneyball and the A’s are just the most high profile example of this thinking. Wonkish number crunchers who follow baseball have been doing this for years, creating their own statistics I mean.

More competitive teams mean fan participation goes up. (No I didn’t create a graph for that but it stands to reason right?) Clubs sell more tickets and merchandise with a winning team in town. All this comes with a lot of caveats and side bars but winning or at least the chance of winning trumps loosing. What does the game look like in 20 years if managers utilize shifts on defense for every opposing batter and mix up the pitching rotation to devalue the closer? It might turn baseball into America’s favorite sport again, but it could also make it a total bore.

I watched a Netflix special the other night on the origins of curling. It closer to amatuer bowling in the eighties, guys from the local club meeting for beers. Apparently one of the best players found a loophole in the scoring and exploited it to countless Brier victories. The problem was it kept scoring so low and turned the whole affair into a colossal bore that fans started booing them everywhere they went. The sport instituted some rule changes to prevent low scoring games (matches?) and bring back the fans. 

I think there is a lesson in there for baseball. Make changes where necessary but be deliberate please. Too much too soon and the already dwindling fan base goes away for good. Don’t change the nature of the sport and don’t assume statistics that are practical and quantifiable will be embraced by everyone.

The average age of baseball fans is 57. So they have a problem every sport suffers with, how to attract new fans while not alienating the regulars. Don't let the math overwhelm the talent.