Smoking Pipe Diplomacy: Nord Stream 2 Solved?

Gas Pipelines: The New Cold War 

Seymore Hersh wrote a piece yesterday about the Nord Stream pipeline explosion last fall. If there was any doubt before about who did it, that doubt was laid to rest today. We did it. The US Navy used its specialized deep sea divers to rig C4 on a timer. I initially thought the Russians probably did it to punish the Germans for sending weapons and materiel to Ukraine. It wasn’t a strong enough argument. Nord Stream 2 was about to be a serious windfall for Russia, it hadn’t fully come on line yet. It’s not the only natural gas pipeline Moscow has running into Europe though. Most of them go through Ukraine.

 But Nord Stream (1 and 2) were an affront to NATO alliances from the beginning.

Why did the Biden administration waive sanctions on the NS2 if they thought it was a threat to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)? What did the US get in return? I can’t imagine Biden waived sanctions to make nice. Obviously this is before the war in Ukraine, May 2021. It’s possible that blowing up the pipeline was always a possibility if the Russians didn’t behave. After the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the plan to sabotage it went into effect. The details are all speculative, but Hersh tells a wonderful story.

 If this isn’t a movie in 2 years I’ll leave the country (not really). I can think of a few angles to write a screenplay from this.

But, it’s still an act of war against a sovereign country. Not only is it an act of war, it’s an act of aggression against a nuclear power. Moscow might not be the powerhouse it pretends to be, but it’s still a formidable enemy. They could drag China into the mix as well, we’d certainly have a World War 3 at that point. The US is likely betting that the Russians won’t be able to retaliate directly for the offense. But what if they unleash nukes in Ukraine and just go scorched earth on the place? It’s a real possibility.

There are too many unknowns and I’m getting a little nervous that we’re setting up for a protracted war. But not a direct head to head war, a proxy that goes on for years and eats up money and lives. The White House denies Mr. Hersh’s reporting by calling it “utterly false” and “complete fiction”. Russia knows it was the US anyway and that’s all that matters. How will they get back at us?

I’ve avoided writing too much about this whole Ukraine war. In part because I’ve had to rethink my positions on a whole range of issues. If Russia is so aggressive why is Germany allowing such an obvious takeover of their way of life? The Germans have allowed the greens to push a radical climate agenda on the whole country. It’s weakened their existence and forced them to seek out cheap gas from Gazprom (Russian national company). This doesn’t solve their supposed climate problem, it just shifts the blame for ‘destroying the planet’ to Russia.

It’s possible too that Germany doesn’t care much for the NATO alliance anymore. I can’t think of a better way to drive a wedge between us and the Russians than buying gas from Putin’s industries. It is frustrating to see your biggest (wealthiest) ally in Europe stop developing its own energy and turn to the very country that NATO was set up to contain. Europe and America needed a plan after World War II to keep the Russians in the East and the Germans weak. The NATO alliance holds for now, but it isn’t looking strong.

For a purely philosophical take, the America I thought I lived in doesn’t exist anymore. What vision of the world are we pushing anyway? The school curriculum talks about the evils of America’s founding. From Marxist notions of class struggle to critical race theory and victim studies, it’s a mess of lies designed to create friction. I guess I bought into the idea that America is a force for good in the world. At least, that was the prevailing view of Reagan and both Bushes, even Clinton. Maybe they didn’t really believe it but they stuck to the script, so to speak, and gave lip service to those ideals abroad. But if America as a country (and an ideal) is so rotten, why keep pushing such dangerous ideas on the rest of humanity.

Put another way, who wants the United States as a partner with our historic racism, sexism and homophobia? Just look at our awful past. Read this article about a kids show and recognize that it's a Disney program.

You can’t push an aggressive foreign policy whose military sabotages a sovereign nation’s pipeline while your schools teach America as the great evil. Music, movies and TV all traffic in it as well. Something has to give. Our belligerence on the international stage makes the point better than any left wing radical could. 

Sadly we’ve just the given the Russians a very public incentive to create more havoc.

Life and Legacy: Service for the King

 

Remembering Papa: Life and Legacy

The memorial service in Branson was a joy.

 It’s a funny phrase to say that about such a solemn occasion but there it is. This weekend an extended group of family gathered for a remembrance of Robert (Bob) Marsden our grandpa. Known affectionately as Papa, he lived to 90 years old and passed on a legacy of Christian service and eternal trust in God’s plan. The last part I don’t say lightly. His career as a preacher taught him the value of applying the scripture to daily life and watching God move. He wrote a book (When God Speaks, Listen!) a few years ago as a recap to his life, something for the family to gain an appreciation of his life.

He put his family first and listened to the voice of God for wisdom as a pastor, and for comfort when life didn’t make sense.

My memories of Papa usually involve him loading a U-Haul truck for another move, or standing behind the pulpit at church teaching from the New Testament. Him and my grandmother moved a lot, taking positions with various churches around the country. He did the marriage ceremony for a couple of my cousins as well as my brother. Other than the weddings I never saw a lot of his actual teaching. He had congregations in Ohio, New York, and Florida to name just a few states. From what others have told me, he was most comfortable behind the pulpit and studying the scriptures.

Never the warm fuzzy type, he was serious by default and always focused on the hard realities of any situation. Where my grandmother was warm and easy, he was serious and tough. But as a pastor he learned how to be gentle and helpful to his flock. He wasn’t without a sense of humor either. The first time I watched Tim Conway’s novocain bit from the Carol Burnett show was at his house. He loved Conway’s deadpan physical comedy. It’s ironic that he looked a little like him too.  

From his book, I got a sense of how difficult it was to be his family’s provider at the age of 10. His father’s passing forced a realignment of values, he suddenly became provider for his mother and sisters. Government help wasn’t consistent in the 1940s and people were too proud to take it in a lot of cases anyway. It might have been tough for a young boy to start working at such an early age, but it wasn’t unusual. Life took on a very serious tone during those years and he never got back the innocence of youth.

He famously hated board games. Not only did he hate board games, but he never really learned how to play most games. I’m sure it’s a result of being responsible for so much at such a formidable age. He wasn’t shy about sharing his opinions either. But he was an amazing resource for advice on relationships, politics and Christian living. In the years right after grandma passed away, he used to visit my mom for a few days in the summer.

She stayed in Broken Arrow in apartments that looked out over a pool. I spent a few days with him at the pool, he loved the heat and sun. In those few days he told me various stories about churches he pastored and cities he and my grandmother lived in. I stayed with him at his apartment in Branson one night. A few of us (including him) were traveling to Illinois the next day to celebrate my aunt’s birthday. He told me about his prayer list, a nightly ritual of names that he’d been compiling for years. It’s a great practice that I’ve used myself in certain seasons of life. We never know how much the prayer from another person is working on our behalf.

I think the word that best defines Papa is “Servant”. He gave his life to Christ early in his marriage and began a life of service in the pulpit. His daughters learned the importance of the Bible in family life and taught it to their children as well. Life was tough for most of his years, money was always tight and moving put an extra strain on the finances. But the most important value he taught was to turn to Jesus in times of trouble. It’s a process that’s learned through trying times and harsh circumstances. It tests our faith and gives us enough patience to weather the storms of life. It’s the most important skill that one person can give to another, and it’s rooted in prayer.

Thanks for being our example Papa, and thanks for the legacy.  

Faith and Patience From James 1

Growing in Faith and Patience

If there’s a chapter in the Bible I’ve read more than any other it’s probably James 1. There’s so much practical wisdom on taming the tongue, trials and breakthrough, being a doer of the word. Patience though, has been a critical part of my growth as a Christian.

 “My brethren, count it all joy when you fall into various trials, knowing that the testing of your faith produces patience. But let patience have its perfect work, that you may be perfect and complete, lacking nothing.” (verse 2-4)

I always imagined the verse should read “The testing of your patience produces faith”. That used to confuse me. Isn’t faith the ethereal thing that Gods asks for? Isn’t faith the ‘hard to get your mind around’ discipline?

Patience for Maturity

It seems like faith would be the goal and patience would be the mechanism you exercise. But it’s the opposite. That tells me that faith is the mechanism or muscle you build. Hebrews calls it the “substance of things hoped for”. It’s the activity we use to strengthen our character. Patience isn’t just for spiritual matters. It’s critical to function as a responsible adult. It’s also the way God’s plan of sowing and reaping works. All that planting and watering creates a restless mind prone to giving up. Patience bridges the gap between our efforts and rewards.

 We rarely get what we want, in the time frame we want it. And much of what we want in our 20s goes away in our 30s anyway. It’s the same situation for career and relationships. Patience means waiting and trusting that God will provide what we need in His time. It’s really about trust, and trust is a process.

Respecting the Father

When we place our trust in God we give Him our wants and ask for His wisdom. It’s rarely a quick process. Trust takes time because it must. How deep would that trust be if He gave us everything we asked for right away? We’d be no better than a screaming child in a shopping cart pointing and demanding various items in the toy department. This is key to understanding how the Father breaks through our selfishness straight to our heart. Not only will the toys not fulfill us, they’ll reduce God to a dispenser of goods. This isn’t a god anyone can serve. He’s more like an eternal Santa Claus, affirming our feelings and handing out goodies.

We neither respect Him nor put any long term trust in Him. This might be a big part of our problem culturally as the Church. Our affluence in the West acts like a callous over our hearts. We don’t have to wait all that often. 'Suffering' today means waiting for the woman at Starbucks, who’s ordering customized drinks for the entire office. Talk about a test of patience when all you want is a coffee, black! The comfortable existence of daily life, lulls into a sense of complacency. We’ve forgotten how to trust in God. America has built up an impressive consumer driven economy. Amazon delivers most packages within 1 day. Walmart delivers groceries the same day.

This isn’t a lament about our wealthy culture. I’m grateful for the all the comforts. I’m grateful that we can pursue leisure and finicky diets without worrying about the national wheat crop.

Waiting is Countercultural

But the ease of life makes us forget that God’s plan has its own schedule. Has anyone found a way to make cattle grow faster or how to shorten the seasons? Time is God’s purview and messing with it will leave us frustrated. The consumer marketplace might move quicker than ever but it can’t mature a person any faster. Faith can only be built one way, through struggle. It’s uncomfortable at first because it’s supposed to be.  You can’t lift a 100 pounds over your head until you’ve started with 50. Faith is linked to patience like muscles are to power.

Maybe we’re slow to learn this concept because culture is rooted in handing us whatever we want. But part of gaining patience is learning to stay in the shopping cart and sit still. Trust that when you need something God will throw it in the basket. For the rest, learn to work for the important things in life and be grateful for the time we live in. You never know when it will end.

conclusion

This isn’t doom and gloom forecasting, but life is unpredictable and nothing lasts forever. A patient person is a complete person who lacks nothing according to James. That means difficult times won’t phase you if your trust is in God, and how He’s built up your faith. It’s what I’m learning about the nature of God. James 1 is a good place to start with patience.

A New Theory on China's Rise: Michael Sekora of the Socrates Project

 

Is China’s Global Rise a Result of Their Technology Strategy?

I watched a video (Part 1)from a China expert, Michael Sekora, who described the rise of China as a strategic move to leverage technology. He explained, since World War II the United States has pursued a Finance based strategy. China has pursued a Technology based strategy. I’m sure these are his terms because I’ve never heard them used like this. Both terms refer to how the government and its business interests grow. Finance based strategy is concerned with efficient investments and rates of returns.

Finance or Technology

In other words, making money is the primary objective when considering what to manufacture and subsidize. Other considerations like competitiveness and market domination are secondary. In technology based strategies, the country exploits technology to gain market advantage and dominate the industry. The best example Mr. Sekora gives is in the auto industry. China could never compete with the United States’ automotive industry, but they did offer cheap labor. GM took advantage of that cheap labor and sent some low end car manufacturing over to China, let’s say the seats or the dashboard.

China got 2 things from this trade, work for their 1 billion strong labor force and technology from GM. Sure, it was easy to replicate. It’s not like GM sent them engine materials to machine or electronics to wire up. But China now had some low tier capabilities for car manufacturing. Add to this low tier a mid tier, once GM sent higher level manufacturing the next time around. Maybe in the next decade it was the exhaust or the drive train. GM is still not sending electronic components at this point. But China is taking the technology they do have, and figuring out how to build a car for their domestic market. How long until they’re competitive? They don’t need to sell in the United States or Europe. They can sell to countries around the world (Brazil, Russia) that might have bought from us before.

His point is that we, the United States, allowed this to happen because we obsess over financial concerns. The accountants are running the country and so on. China focused on using what we considered, low grade to build a first world country that always saw us as a competitor. They want to dominate markets, so they play small ball until they can dictate terms. Remember how difficult it was to get PPE (personal protective equipment) at the start of Covid? Latex gloves, masks and even a lot of medicines were all tied up in containers because it’s where all of it was made. That’s was a real example of what it means to not have necessary goods. Our supply chains are still a mess.

The era of consequence-free open markets is over.

Two Systems

Michael Sekora makes a convincing argument that the US doesn’t think enough about long term competitiveness. Mostly though it’s a function of our very different systems. Our businesses think about profit and loss because it’s what businesses are supposed to do. Governments consider things like global competitiveness and long term sustainability. At a certain level though, energy companies are a good example, industry is crucial to national security. They’re also large enough to steer national conversations on where the country is headed. It’s in the interest of the national business and the government to work toward healthy, dominant industries.

In a communist country like China, the only choice available is government planning. In this case, Mr. Sekora calls it technology planning. But it’s really just the top down way the government makes all decisions.

The Chinese didn’t have much of any industry before Chairmen Deng Xiaoping and the rise of factory towns around large cities. They had a lot of catching up to do with the West. But they knew how to do it; it had been done already by nearly everyone else. And yes, the US helped them get there quicker through tariff reductions and an onslaught of manufacturing jobs. But according to Mr. Sekora the goodies the Chinese received from the West in the early nineties were just boosters. The main thruster was always the technology strategy they employed.

They didn’t lose focus on developing their competitive edge at our expense.

It's also no secret that the Chinese steal IP (Intellectual Property) from foreign owned businesses that open up shop over there. It’s part of doing business. They don’t respect property rights and they never have. In the early stages of their reform and opening period (1991-2000) there was hope among American businesses that this would change. No one would make that mistake today.

I’m curious how he sees the next decade playing out for China.

 

 

The Group Dynamic in Running

I’m back training again for another marathon. 

Running is now squarely in my DNA. Like a lot of healthy shifts in lifestyle, it reminds you that fitness is now a way of life. It’s more than just an occasional hobby, like collecting rare coins and fixing up old cars. It’s both a social club and an important activity for ageing well. Don’t get me wrong, running isn’t the only way to do this. A lot of my friends play basketball in men’s leagues, while others have found pickle ball or jiu-jitsu. Nothing beats a consistent walk if that’s all your body allows for. The key is finding something to do with others, if you’re reluctant to exercise alone.

I’m naturally an introvert so making friends is important. It’s work for me to get out and meet people. I started to make jogging a year round activity 5 or 6 years ago. Back then I ran alone. I still contend, nothing clears your head like a long run at a steady pace. But at a certain point I wanted to compete. Races are a specific goal that forces you to meet a time standard and continually improve. For me the standard was to complete a half marathon under 2 hours and 20 minutes. Once met, I started to increase my pace. I ran a handful of half marathons and even joined a group that offered training.

Joining the group was a perfect next step in my running journey. It forced me out of a comfort zone of individual effort, where I could only improve marginally. We all need others in our lives to push us, even slightly, and to keep us honest in our goals. There are plenty of people in the group that just run for exercise and camaraderie. Either they aren’t competitive or don’t want to hassle with the whole racing experience, money for entry and travel. I’ve learned how to prepare for a big race through the training program my club puts together. But even without doing the race, the training is preparation for future performance.

If you’re like me, prone to work alone, the best advice is to let someone help you with a struggle. Now I’m talking about more than running. Apologies for the clunky transition. Individual effort can only get you so far. You become like a weightlifter who only does arms. His biceps are impressive but from the waist down he stands on pool cues. No one doubts his ability to do curls, his physique proves this out. But he lacks strength in his legs because he ignored everyone who tried to give him advice. 

When you do life completely alone you’re incomplete. Your missing strength might not be obvious yet to others, but without help it will soon show. Pride gets in the way of improvement. We all need group training in something. Group dynamics allow us to build where we’re weak. Sometimes admitting you can’t do something by yourself is the most difficult part. It means you aren’t as great as you thought, a necessary step that allows you to grow. Similarly, my writing is better when I take advice.

Now I’d rather run with a group than alone, even if races are very singular events. I’ve picked up advice on eating, sleeping and stretching before and after training runs. I can bounce ideas off others who are further into this lifestyle than me. The internet can provide forums for questions about injuries and what shoes to buy. But a group is a community.

Just today someone asked me about my marathon from back in October of last year. We hadn’t talked since the last session. I’d picked up a few pointers from him last time. The best thing he told me was to get in my miles before the big run, don’t cheat. Your legs will thank you. I can’t remember how many races he told me he’d done since he decided to get fit. He’s in his late fifties and he runs almost an hour faster than me. So I listen.

This year I’m loosely planning for the Oklahoma City Memorial Marathon in late April. I believe I can knock 20 minutes off my total in the Justice Run from last year. That might be a little aggressive for a second race, but I know of a good group that can get me there.

  

Bringing Back American Institutions: Florida's Experiment

 

Recapturing the Institutions: Small Victories

If you’ve read any of my blogs of the last few years you’ll notice a lot of kvetching over the direction of institutions in this country. Institutions used to be the backbone of stability for the politically uninitiated. Churches, rooted in doctrinal truth, provided shelter from a culture hostile to faith. Businesses had every incentive to run away from political controversy. But corporations have been captured with the same enthusiasm for gender confusion and Critical Race Theory that a freshman at Evergreen State College would have. 

Nonprofits like the Boy Scouts long ago gave up their restrictions on gay scout leaders.

How and Why

At a certain point you begin to wonder if there is any fight left in the public. Even Chick-fil-A was talked out of its financial commitments to groups (like the Salvation Army) that support traditional marriage.

A good picture of collapse is that final scene in Casino Royale. The centuries old buildings in Venice start sinking as James Bond shoots out their supports. But American institutions aren’t collapsing as much as being hollowed out. This is the thing you never see because it’s sneaky. Leadership compromises a little to avoid an expensive lawsuits and next thing you know, outside groups are effectively steering the ship.

The most straightforward example is how climate change has been used as a wedge to control energy companies. In the early days of public consciousness over the environment, (early 70s) the EPA regulated most laws under the Clean Water Act (CWA). Pollution was a major problem. Factories dumped what they wanted and created big clean up projects that took years to fix.

But the EPA started being used like a cudgel.  This is inevitable for most federally run programs, at a certain point they add too many layers of legal red tape. The Department of Education forces schools in various districts to meet the same standards as urban ones. Or, they add opaque ‘diversity and inclusion’ programs that change with the whims of an administration. The EPA is supposed to write regulations under specific acts of Congress, Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act and so on. Without getting into the weeds too much, the problem has always been that the EPA is exceeding their mandate. They’re supposed to interpret laws in limited fashion.

The Supreme Court ruled against the EPA’s interpretation of the Clean Air Act this summer. The short version is that energy companies complained about being hamstrung, shut down and heavily regulated. SCOTUS agreed. Congress, under Obama, gave the EPA a blank check to decide America’s energy future.

Where We Are

The EPA is a microcosm of how a lot of federal agencies are run. They get a mandate from Congress and use it to gum up the works. Large companies, especially energy companies, need to play ball with regulators or get shut down. After a while their corporate boards are in sync with ‘environmental’ concerns. After a little longer the difference is almost negligible. Remember Rex Tillerson, Trump’s first Secretary of State? He looked and sounded like an old time oil man, but politically he was as moveable as natural gas. After a lifetime of being taught by the EPA on where to step, he'd become the perfect Washington man--unprincipled. He was one of Trump’s biggest mistakes.

Churches and Christian culture is close to my heart. I’m a product of both Sunday services and a Christian education, but a lot of the national Church is little more than a club. They don’t oppose the culture as much as they should. Abortion, adultery and greed are all sins but don’t you dare hurt anyone’s feelings! The existing philosophy seems to be God is my biggest fan and wants me to succeed. That’s why Jesus went to cross after all, to ensure my happiness. It’s as if Christians got beat up in the 80s and 90s and decided to make a truce with secular forces. We won’t go after you if you don’t go after us.

It’s in this institutional mess that we occasionally hear some good news.

The Good News

Governor DeSantis of Florida appointed Christopher Rufo to the board of New College of Florida. Chris is a Manhattan institute fellow and anti-Critical Race Theory activist. A move like this is exactly the kind of direct attack on that Republicans need to start practicing. The traditional way a conservative governor might handle this is to get a consensus pick and avoid a fight. But he’s seen the value of being an advocate for education and families. He was elected in a landslide this past year and so were others who supported him, like congressman Gaetz. Obviously the choice of Rufo is a small step toward un-woke (ing) higher education. But it’s in the right direction and it’s a strong move that the old party (Jeb Bush) would’ve never made.

Maybe it’s not too late to save institutions like education. It’s going to take people committed to the fight though. 

More like this please.  

  

New Year New Resolve

 

The Effort is the Point for New Year's Resolutions

Today is the second day of 2023 and I’m optimistic about my future.

Resolutions are for chumps. That used to be my motto. Easier to make small changes in habits throughout the year and see success. It’s easier to change simple things and stick to it, than to make grand plans and fall flat. I remember wanting to stop dipping tobacco a few years ago. I made a resolution to quit for good. After a week or so I fell apart and went back to my can per day habit. Setting a goal and failing to meet it is one of the most soul crushing feelings a person can imagine. Not meeting your goal is a reminder of your “loser” status. What made you think that this time would be different? All the times I’d tried to quit and failed, but this was different?

Why? because the calendar turned over?

Risk Averse Behavior

Making any resolution reminds us that there is still a longing in our hearts for better. Even when the results are universally bad. Most people break whatever good intensions they had after a week or two. This isn’t a winning strategy, but it’s better than never improving or pretending that you don’t need to. Before my tobacco effort I didn’t make resolutions. It was a defensive reaction to prevent an inevitable letdown. “If I don’t commit, I can’t be disappointed” is the risk averse attitude.

 When I finally made myself accountable for quitting it did two things. One, it forced me to deal with the problem at hand. Two, it created a new habit of working through problems instead of ignoring them. Success came later. I never got over anything on the first try, but the effort was the point. Getting up after a failure is tough but it’s the only way.

Failure isn’t shameful if it forces you to try again.

Negatives and Positives

Not all resolutions are negatives, meaning removing something harmful, many are positive. A positive is something you add, like a routine or healthy habit. Goals to increase the number of books read per year, or number of days at the gym would be positive resolutions. Since the tobacco experience I’ve added healthy habits like eating fruits and vegetables and subtracted other negative ones, like alcohol. The key is to keep trying.

One of my favorite verses is found in Proverbs 3:5-6 “Trust in the Lord with all your heart and lean not unto your own understanding. In all your ways acknowledge Him and He shall direct your paths.” Too often we think resolutions fall on our shoulders completely. But all of need help at some time. A serious change in habit is too important to take on yourself. Allow God to work on your heart and direct your steps. Don’t get frustrated if you fall down either.

Heart Issues

Why do we expect to be perfect with new habits when nothing else in life works that way? How many new skills did you learn on the first try? I still can’t seem to fry pancakes right, forget chicken marsala or beef wellington. Ever tried riding a bike as a kid? How many times did you crash before you felt comfortable riding without training wheels?

Changing habitual behavior is a skill in itself. It takes time to get into a groove. New Year resolutions should encourage us to work on our trust in God. Our own understanding of behavior is often wrong. We don’t need to just lose weight, we need to deal with why we eat so much extra food. Often it’s not just laziness or access. Maybe you need to start speaking positive (biblical) truths about your future, instead of negative speech.

 These are heart issues that only God can sort out. He will show you if you lean on Him. But don’t forget to acknowledge Him for the victory. I never accomplished anything difficult without leaning into God for guidance. Because of that, I always point to Him for my success.

Conclusion

I did eventually quit dipping tobacco. I don’t remember if it was in the same calendar year as my resolution or the next year. But I trusted in the Heavenly Father and kept moving forward. We honor God when we allow Him to change us into His image.

Don’t trash resolutions. Find something to improve and pray about how to start.